Two months ago, I signed in with Oneil Cruz, the midfield guard. Things are not going well. At the end of the 2024 season, the Buccaneers moved Cruz from shortstop to center, and the early returns were frustrating and I felt the need to write down 17 experiments in the 2025 season. This is the location of the numbers at that time:
Cruz is currently sitting on -8 DRS, -2 OAA and FRV and -0.1 DRP. Of all outfielders, these numbers ranked worst, worst in the third, worst in the fourth and fifth respectively. Advanced defensive metrics work on different scales, and they often disagree, but at this point, they are consistent: Cruz has been one of the worst outfielders of any baseball game this season. According to the Doctor, Cruz is the most unlikely defender in baseball.
However, there is good news. Last week, Reader AJ wrote our new introduction to mailbag for updates, as Cruz’s statistics now look completely different. I think the turnaround is worth it, not a few sections. I broke everything with the first article as the dividing line. There is a gap between Cruz’s first 17 games and his last 48 games.
Oneil Cruz’s defensive turnaround
| date | PhD | drp | OAA | frv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By April 17 | -8 | -0.1 | -2 | -2 |
| Since April 18 | +3 | +0.5 | +4 | +5 |
| Total number of seasons | -5 | +0.4 | +2 | +3 |
Well-deserved running prevention is essentially more conservative than other defensive metrics, but all the advanced numbers agree that Cruz has completely changed everything in the past two months. Not only did he stop negative numbers, he kept digging himself out, and in addition to saving defensive runs, he achieved net results in every indicator. Over the past two months, they clearly believe he is one of the better defenders in the league. Put it together with career-best hits and basic numbers, and Cruz’s pace in his career is also at the same time.
The most obvious improvement is that Cruz cuts the error to some extent. He has made two mistakes in the past two months after four mistakes made in the first two weeks of the season. It’s still too much for outfielders, but it marks a big improvement. That’s not the exciting part. Cruz’s intuition is improving.
Just look at the Statcast’s outfield jump numbers. Two months ago, Cruz was one of the worst outfielders in baseball in all three components: reaction time, route efficiency and total distance spread within the first 1.5 seconds. Overall, he is 3.1 feet slower than the average outfielder, and he ranks 62nd out of 67 qualified players. Now, he is 0.5 feet slower than average, which means his composition is 2.6 feet. There is no way to know exactly how the sample size goes, but if we keep going, assuming Cruz had the same number of chances in both periods, he averaged 0.9 feet faster than the average since we last checked him. That would put him in the top three for qualified outfielders. This is probably Geraldo Perdomo’s Gapper, telling the story very well.
Statcast gives it a 70% chance of capturing, making it a three-star capture. It requires Cruz to travel 79 feet in 4.7 seconds, and he does it very comfortably. When the broadcast cuts to the high home camera, he is already moving and his angle is good, because of the fact that the ball will cut the ball open. From looking at it you never know that this ball will get an extra base 30% of the time.
As a quick review, Statcast determines the capture probability of each play that the outfielder must make and helps classify these opportunities into categories and assigns 0 to 5 stars based on difficulty. Cruz still has no five-star catch, and his only four-star capture inning is back on April 6. If that was the one he could look forward–a guy who doesn’t have a really incredible drama, but definitely a big party on a 50% chance of capturing, and cannon with arms – that’s enough to make him a very good center fielder, even if he continues to make occasional mistakes.
Cruz may also keep improving. His average sprint speed is 29.1 feet per second, which makes him the top 10% of the league. Cruz’s four- and five-star catches this season require outfielders to be perfect. You have to get amazing jumps, take a great route, and have excellent speed to hit the ball. Cruz has speed, his jumps and routes improve dramatically. At least there is a chance he can become the kind of player who occasionally encounters five-star captures. Two weeks ago, Victor Caratini’s ball was another three-star catch, which is a great example.
The camera certainly makes it look spectacular because it follows the right fielder, which allows Cruz to jump into the frame like Superman. Cruz walked 120 feet to reach it, and for a long time he grabbed the wall more and more and negotiated it perfectly. It’s hard to imagine he caught this a few months ago. This is not to say he is perfect. This is a drama he did two days ago. This is a low liner with a capture probability of 55%, making reaction time and most important pathway. Cruz got there without any problem, but he misreaded slightly, and the ball was on top of him. He radiated the angle and had to change his course at the last minute. If it weren’t for his height, he probably wouldn’t have made a game.
We are almost here now, so this is the time for warning. We’re still talking about a small sample – or actually a small sample and other small samples. Currently, Cruz’s +2 OAA rating comes from converting his 89% catch since the average center fielder is 88%. That’s it. He is 1% better than the average of 167 hits, so 1% of the balls may be close to 1.67. According to the OAA, he doesn’t look good on the ball that hits the ball, and he’s still scoring poorly there. As I have pointed out in the past, outfielders tend to be better when their chances are biased towards three-star opportunities and lean towards five-star opportunities. Cruz’s batting assignment may become a little lucky. Still, while it may be too early to say that Cruz is a great midfielder, it is indeed encouraging. He looks like more and more time, errors and advanced metrics are improving. The sample is indeed important, and the outfielder cannot decide which balls are opened. For now, he is making these dramas, and that’s a welcome change.
