The red rotation is an undeniable force this season. The team's starters ranked third in the Parks and League-adjusted era, with their collective peripherals mostly backed up. They are ranked 10th in the Parks and League adjusted FIP. Hunter Greene has done a great job, Nick Lodolo has made some important command improvements, and Brady Singer has added a secret ingredient, although his era has exceeded 5.00 since Michael Baumann wrote about his era last month. But the pitcher leading the team is Andrew Abbott, who I want to be confused by the 25-year-old left-hander before Baumann was able to write about his third Cincinnati starter of the year.
What if I tell you, while Abbott's fastball is slower than usual and his arm slot is five degrees higher than usual, he managed to improve the court stuff a little + score somehow? You may be a little confused because many pitchers have a tendency to try lowering their arm slots to level up their four isolators. A flat approach angle usually results in more swings and lapses at the top of the area, while weaker contact, as it is difficult for a bats to rise the court that looks like it is above the bats. Abbott has always had a high release point, but his 50-degree arm angle is now the 11th tallest arm slot in a qualified left-handed pitcher.
Research on the relationship between the pitcher's arm slot and the shape of the pitcher shows that as the pitcher's arm slot rises, they are able to generate more backspin. More dorsal spins allow them to create more induced vertical fractures (IVB). In short, IVB is a function of arm angle. Another thing about high arm angles is that purer spin fastballs tend to reduce levels of cuts. Abbott did some tricky things with his new arm slot:
Andrew Abbott, Fastball Features
| Year | speed | Arm angle | Vertical release angle | Vertical IVB | Level rest | Vertical close angle is above average | Average vertical position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 92.7 | 45.8° | -1.9° | 16.3 | 7.8 | +0.18° | 2.79 |
| 2024 | 92.8 | 44.9° | -1.9° | 16.3 | 8.9 | +0.06° | 2.80 |
| 2025 | 91.8 | 49.5° | -2.2° | 16.4 | 8.5 | -0.21° | 2.67 |
Despite the high release angle, Abbott did not experience a corresponding increase in the loading of heaters. Another strange thing is that he is able to maintain the high level of breakthrough he has made on the court. Because he now throws from higher slots, the pitch is much steeper, while the pitch cutter shape provides a wider horizontal approach angle.
Now, Abbott’s four-seller stands out because it doesn’t have that much, and because it cuts more than you’d expect. A “dead zone” fastball describes a pitch with unstriking motion characteristics, a fastball that moves as expected. Research shows that the dead zone of the fastball is a function of the pitcher's arm angle, resulting in the concept of dynamic dead zone (DDZ). Using DDZ Deltas calculated by Alex Chamberlain (based on what Max Bay did), we can see that Abbott's fastball exceeded the batsman's expectations in his arm slot:
Andrew Abbott, Fastball Dead Zone
| Year | Vertical dead zone delta | Horizontal dead zone delta |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +0.2 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | -0.4 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | -0.4 | +2.8 |
Remember that magnitude is important when evaluating a pitcher's DDZ, so while his +2.8 horizontal dead zone delta is a good thing, Abbott's negative vertical dead zone delta is not necessarily a bad thing.
So far, the results have been positive. His high temperatures on the court have increased from over 19% in his first two seasons to 25.2% this year. The extra swing and lapses are good, but he also turns the heater into a monster with a suppression symbol. Just look at some of the key contact metrics in STATCAST:
Andrew Abbott, Fastball Contact Suppression
| Year | What % | Xwobacon | Hard hit % | bucket% | Square %/swing | Explosion %/swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19.80% | 0.447 | 51.0% | 12.6% | 24.3% | 11.8% |
| 2024 | 19.40% | 0.395 | 43.2% | 11.3% | 25.5% | 9.4% |
| 2025 | 25.20% | 0.297 | 26.7% | 8.9% | 16.3% | 4.9% |
Abbott's expected Woba hit .297 in his game, ranking 17 of 248 pitchers who threw at least 100 four-man fours this year. The hard hits and barrel rate against the court are small. The most impressive aspect of his contact management comes from Statcast's new bat tracking data. The average bat velocity of the relative bat in baseball against Abbott's fastball is the second highest bat velocity, but they “balance” the court at the third lowest speed at each swing, and they “explode” his heater at the fourth lowest speed at baseball. In other words, when batsmen see Abbott’s fastball, they do get ready because their eyes tell them that the court is very easy, but they simply don’t have a firm contact with it.
To relate all this to the shape of the court, I hope this contact suppression is related to the amount of level breakthroughs, Abbott and his fastballs are produced. The batsman, with the high arm slot, wanted to see a straight four with a large carrying. Instead, their cutting fastballs aren't as many as you'd expect. Instead of swinging completely under the court like they had a lot of carry, they often worked, but it was a faint touch because the pitch was not the level they expected. Much of the contact he makes with the court is on the ends or handles of the bat, resulting in weaker fly balls and pop-ups.
Of course, location is also important. In the first table above, I included the average vertical position, because the position is a key component of the vertical close angle. Abbott positioned the fastball lower this year in the strike area, which together with his higher arm slots contributed to his steeper close angle. He is also very consistent with the position of the right-shot player on the outside of the plate:
Since the horizontal break on the court kept it away from the right, his position was perfect for causing weak contact at the end of the bat while avoiding the barrel's ultimately avoiding the heart of the plate.
If you're worried about Abbott's speed drop, I'm happy to report that his heater has more zippers in his last few games:
A shoulder injury last August shortened his 2024 season, so he entered spring training and was a little behind. I suspect he is still rising in the first few games of the season and his speed will return to normal progress.
Aside from his fastball and new arm slots, there is a key change in the rest of the Abbott track that could boost his success. His changes dropped by about three inches while still maintaining a higher-average level breakout. The mass rate on the court increased by about four points, while the expected woba was only .222. More importantly, the shape changes allow him to make more difference between the court and his fastball:
Please forgive the color difference in the above figure for each year. In Abbott's field plot from the left of the 2024 2024, his changes (black spots) overlap with his fastball (blue spots). In 2025, on the right, his speed pitch (green blog) is completely different from his heater (blue spot).
Abbott and Charlie Goldsmith briefly discuss the evolution of the stadium Dayton Daily News Late April:
It's been a long way. I talked to Nick Martinez and a group of people about how to throw it away and hold all of this stuff. It finally came. This is not what I think is OK, but it becomes more consistent.
His use of the change increased from 16.3% last year to 21.3% this year, which proved to be a powerful weapon against right-handed batsmen.
Abbott really boosted his arsenal with a new arm slot, a deceptive fastball, and the changes that improved on hand. His walking rate is a little high now, but his strikeout rate is 30.3%, and his improvement in contact suppression on the heater almost completely negates these additional free passes. The first-class result will certainly say: Abbott allowed only more than one game this year, which happened to be the only start he allowed more than four hits. As long as the batsman can’t balance his fastball, we can see the young lefty take a big step forward.
