Tomorrow afternoon is the deadline for players to decide whether to accept a qualifying offer. The offer for 13 free agents is $22.025. For most of them, it’s just a formality and they could easily turn down and get a bigger multi-year contract. However, every offseason comes with some fringe decision, and we’ve seen at least one player take it in six of the past seven years. In the meantime, everyone declined until 2023 (when the number of players receiving QO was unusually low).
For the purposes of this poll, we will exclude seven players: Kyle Tucker, Beau Bichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan Seth, Edwin Diaz, Kyle Schwarber and rangers suarez. None of them will accept a qualifying offer. Most of the remaining six would also refuse, but there would be at least a small chance that they would accept. Players and their representatives have spent the past two weeks gauging early demand on the open market, and someone in the organization may have found enough lukewarm interest to consider locking up a strong one-year deal and try again next offseason.
Zach Gallen and Michael King They are all buy-low rotation options. Gallen averaged a 4.83 ERA in 33 starts. His strikeout rate has dropped for several consecutive seasons, and he ranks fourth among MLB pitchers in home runs (31). He once looked like a lock for a $100-150MM+ contract. That may no longer be on the table, but Gallen should have enough of a track record to turn down QO and at least get a multi-year deal with an opt-out if he wants to retest free agency.
King has been a better shooter than Gallen the past two seasons. He missed much of the year walking due to nerve problems in his shoulder. He finished the year healthy but struggled in September. The Padres didn’t put much faith in him heading into the postseason, although they clearly had enough confidence in his health to step into QO. Kevin Assi of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last week that the Padres expected King to reject the offer and likely not meet his asking price on the open market. MLBTR projects both Gallen and King to sign four-year, $80M contracts.
Brandon Woodruff There are some similarities with the King. He’s a high-end starter whose main concern is durability. Woodruff missed all of ’24 while recovering from shoulder surgery, but ended the season on the injured list due to a strained lat muscle. However, he has performed well in 12 starts during that stretch and is expected to stay healthy heading into 2026. Woodruff is entering his age-33 season. If he accepts a one-year offer and retests for free agency at age 34, the long-term earning power will be reduced. MLBTR projects a three-year contract worth $66MM.
Trent Grisham and Gleyber Torres are the two middle-order batsmen who have received invitations. Grisham hit 34 home runs this season and is the most versatile center fielder on the market. Entering 2025, he has been below the Mendoza Line for three consecutive seasons. Going into the year, the idea of him receiving a qualifying offer would be laughable. Things can change quickly. We predict he’ll turn it down and get a four-year, $660,000 contract.
For us here at MLBTR, Torres is the most surprising QO recipient. He’s also the only one we project to be in the top 50 free agents. (If he hit the market with no draft compensation attached, we’d project a three-year, $4MM deal.) He was strong in the first half and a worthy All-Star, but struggled late in the game and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery.
Finally, what remains Shota Imaga. The left-hander became a free agent because the Cubs refused to trigger a three-year, $570,000 option, and he gave up the remaining two years and $300,000 of his contract. The Cubs were unwilling to make a three-year commitment but were apparently content to have him back for one season, as they subsequently made the QO. Maybe they figured he was destined to say no after giving up $30MM of guarantees, even though the QO represents roughly $7MM more in revenue than he would have earned in 2026 if he didn’t opt out. Imonaga was very good for most of his first two seasons in Chicago, but he became very prone to home runs down the stretch and in the postseason. MLBTR is expected to sign a three-year, $45MM contract.
What can MLBTR readers expect from tomorrow’s game? Will anyone be a one-year lock at the club in 2025, or will they all remain on the market?
