Overall, 2025 is going to be a good season for the Reds. Hunter Green Replicating his stellar performance in 2024 and solidifying himself as one of the top young starters in the game, Andrew Abbott Enjoyed a career year, making his first All-Star Game appearance, and despite winning just 83 games, the club advanced to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013.
However, having said that, there are glaring flaws as the team is currently constructed, and it’s not hard to see where the team needs to improve if they hope to return to the playoffs next year and get another taste of the apples. Cincinnati’s offense has been disappointing across the board this season, even at its star shortstop Ellie de la Cruz Although the number of on-base hits was similar to last year, there were 11 fewer hits and 30 fewer on-base hits than last year.
In a season where nearly every part of the club’s attacking core has fallen short of expectations, it seems a bit unfair to single out any one player. Even so, second baseman struggles Matt McLean The face stands out from the crowd. As recently as 2023, McClain was one of the most exciting young prospects in baseball, and his stellar 89 games in his rookie season earned him fifth place in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2024 season due to injury, and in some ways he has looked like a shell of himself this season.
That’s not to say he’s regressing across the board. McClain’s 28.9% strikeout rate this season is nearly perfect with his 2023 strikeout rate of 28.5%. His 9.5 percent on-base rate was actually a big improvement from the 7.7 percent rate he had during his rookie season. He was also very good defensively, finishing the year with a +6 fielding run average, a number surpassed by only eight qualified middle infielders in baseball this year. That’s a big improvement over the +1 FRV McClain provided in his rookie season.
Relative to 2023, these are all positive (or, in the case of McClain’s strikeout rate, at least neutral) signs. However, this is also where the good times end. Last year, McClain’s strength declined significantly in nearly every metric. He hit 16 homers in 89 games as a rookie and this year he has 15 homers in 147 games. His doubles also dropped from 23 to 18, while his triples actually dropped from four to zero. Ten fewer on-base hits in 174 at-bats meant a drop in power output that was nothing short of staggering, and McClain’s paltry .124 ISO ranked him in the bottom 20 among qualified hitters this year. His barrel rate is down more than three points from 2023, and his hard zone rate is down nearly two points.
That’s not even as good as some well-known contact hitters like Li Zhenghou and Jacob Wilson. While those players (not to mention hitters with less power) Louis Alas and Nico Horner) achieved minimal power output with superior batting skills, but McClain’s lack of improvement in strikeouts prevented him from mimicking that hitting style. Unless the strikeout rate drops significantly next year, McClain will need to regain some power if he wants to improve on his paltry 77 wRC+ this year, let alone come close to the 129 wRC+ he had as a rookie.
How feasible is this? It’s hard to believe he’ll be completely back to where he was in 2023, as that was largely supported by a .385 BABIP. A BABIP of .350 is typically considered the upper end of a sustainable annual range, and McLain’s .292 BABIP this year falls firmly within that more sustainable range. It may recover in the future, but reversing a 90+ point drop seems to be a pipe dream. However, getting back above league average seems like a more reasonable ask and could allow McClain to become a key part of Cincinnati’s core again.
If he wants to get there, he’ll need to adjust his approach a little. McClain’s slugging percentage is only slightly lower than his rookie season in 2025, but he’s lost more than a quarter of his barrels this season. Some of that can certainly be attributed to the apparent decline in line drivers. While McClain’s ground ball rate has stagnated at 38.7% from this year to 2023, his line drive rate has dropped from 24.2% as a rookie to 17.2% this year. To put those numbers into context, his line batting average this year ranks 132nd among 145 qualified hitters, while his 2023 batting average ranks eighth among the same group this year.
Returning to a more line drive-oriented approach could help McClain recoup some of those lost extra-base hits, which would also help his steeply declining BABIP. McClain’s batting average this year is 44.2%, which ranks in the top 30 in the majors. This works great for a hitter like Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber They have the ability to hit 40-plus home runs a year, but for a guy like McClain, the recipe for success is much lower. He’s pulled fewer balls than all but 23 qualified hitters in the league this year, leaving him with a lot of fly balls and pop-ups but little production.
If McClain can lower his launch angle a bit next year, he may be able to get back into the sweet spot more often than he did this year. That’s the secret ingredient why McClain is so effective in 2023, with his 39.6-percent batting average ranking 94th among all MLB hitters. This year the proportion dropped to 34.0%, ranking 43rd. The good news for McClain and the Reds is that a change in approach is easier to correct than a regression in fundamental skills, and McClain’s discipline, defense, speed and bat speed all appear to be on par with, if not better than, his rookie year. That makes it relatively easy to imagine him re-emerging as a core player in a Reds lineup that will need to generate more offense this year if they want to continue making a cameo appearance in the playoffs this season.
