Free agency doesn’t officially begin until five days after the World Series, but teams are already starting to make plans for the upcoming offseason. Many times, that will include the pursuit of some of the winter’s top free agent talent. And the Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker Widely considered to be the top hitter entering free agency this November, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports on Chicago being linked to one of the top pitchers of the winter: the right-hander Dylan Seth. Levine reports that the Cubs are considered a potential top suitor for Seth, who will be pursued by the North Enders this winter.
Seth has important ties to the city of Chicago and the entire Cubs organization. Seth was drafted by the Cubs in the sixth round of the 2014 draft and became a top-100 prospect in the Cubs organization before being traded. Eloy Jimenez in cross-city transactions Jose Quintana Flying to Chicago before the 2017 trade deadline. While Jimenez and Quintana both fell short of expectations during their tenures with their new clubs, Seth became the kind of top rotation player the White Sox coveted when making the trade. He was the 2022 AL Cy Young Award runner-up in his age-26 season with the South Side and was traded to the Padres before the start of the 2024 season for a contract headlined by a top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe.
Seth had another ace-level performance in 2024, posting a 3.47 ERA in 33 starts and striking out 29.4% of his opponents. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting and even received some MVP consideration. As long as Seth can maintain this form in 2025, it would appear to set him up for a big payday in free agency, but he stumbled with a 4.55 ERA in 168 innings this year. Seth’s outside profile is much better than his results would suggest, but a difficult 2025 season created a pattern of instability that might worry some suitors after a similarly underwhelming 2023.
Seth may lack the year-to-year consistency that many clubs look for when looking for an ace to lead the pitching staff, but it’s still easy to see why he would be attractive to teams. The right-hander has been one of the most durable arms in the game in recent years, and his peripherals remain more consistent than his actual production. He struck out at least 200 batters in five straight seasons, making at least 32 starts and 165 innings each season. While his ERA fluctuated between 2.20 and 4.58 over those five seasons, his FIP (between 3.10 and 3.72) and SIERA (between 3.46 and 4.10) were much more consistent. While Seth’s 3.72 ERA ranks 29th among starters with at least 500 innings since 2021, his FIP (12th), SIERA (22nd) and xERA (11th) rankings are all more favorable.
Perhaps most importantly for the Cubs, Seth pitched hard and got a strikeout. His strikeout rate ranks third among the above group, trailing only Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole. Likewise, his fastball velocity ranks third behind Cole, Sandy Alcantara in the same group. Seth’s fastball velocity this year was actually thrown harder than his career average, clocking in at 97.1 mph. Among eligible starters this season, that’s sixth in strikeout rate behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. With a fastball velocity of just 93.1, the third-lowest in the majors, and a 20.5% strikeout rate for a Cubs rotation, Seth would be the kind of power pitcher that the soft-throwing Cubs rotation could really benefit from.
While the suspension may seem like a good fit for the Cubs on paper, that doesn’t mean a trade is definitely likely to be completed. As one of the top starters on the market, Seth will have plenty of suitors, and big spenders like the Mets are known to be in the market for rotation help this winter. Seth’s familiarity with the Cubs organization and the city of Chicago is unlikely to give the Cubs a significant advantage, considering that Seth is a client of Boras’ company, and agent Scott Boras’ clients aren’t known for offering much in the way of hometown discounts in free agency.
The Cubs haven’t often spent money at the top of the free agent market in recent years. since signing Jon Lester and Jason Hayward In consecutive offseasons in 2014 and ’15, the Cubs signed just two players to contracts worth $100 or more: Yu DarvishAs we all know, he was traded to the Padres midway through his six-year, $126MM contract with Chicago, and Dansby Swanson. Seth will certainly seek a contract worth at least that much, and it’s unclear whether the Cubs will be willing to step out of their comfort zone to sign him.
Another factor could be qualifying offers, as the Cubs are generally reluctant to sign eligible free agents. Swanson is the only free agent Chicago has had a QO attached to since signing besides re-signing its own players. John Lackey A two-year contract was signed in December 2015. Even if the Cubs aren’t interested in playing at the top of the market, it’s at least possible they could return to Seth later this offseason if his market doesn’t materialize, as they did at Cody Bellinger during the 2023-24 offseason and try to compete with Alex Bregman last winter.
It’s also worth pondering whether adding starting pitching will be the team’s top priority this winter. Regardless of whether they seek to reunite with Tucker, targeting a bat in free agency might make sense given the club’s unconfirmed prospects of internal options to replace Tucker in the lineup Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caseyand Kevin Alcantara. The bullpen may also be a priority, as every high-leverage reliever on this year’s relief corps except Daniel Palencia Expected to become a free agent this winter.
Of course, starting pitching will likely be the club’s priority, depending on the selection decision between the club and the lefty Shota Imaga Play it out over the next few days. Imonaga leaving for free agency will create some urgency to take his spot in the rotation while he remains with the team Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boydand Cade Horton and Justin Steele Players expected to return from surgery during the first half of next season may have enough rotation talent to convince the Cubs to prioritize improving other aspects of the lineup. Colin RayA cheap $6MM club option for 2025 will likely be picked up and he’ll join Javier Assad With quality depth in the Cubs’ rotation heading into next year, it will be beyond the starting five on paper.
