The World Series is right around the corner and the offseason starts in two weeks. One of the team’s first key decisions is whether to extend a qualifying offer to any impending free agent. Clubs must make a QO decision by the fifth day after the World Series.
QO is a one-year offer calculated based on the average of MLB’s 125 highest salaries. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive a QO have about two weeks to get an initial understanding of the market before deciding whether to accept it. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of next season – just like any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.
If a player declines and signs with another team, his former team will receive draft compensation. The signing club will lose a draft pick and potential international signing bonus space. Compensation and penalties vary based on a team’s revenue share and luxury tax status. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at what each team would gain if they lost an eligible free agent, as well as the penalty they would pay to sign one.
Yesterday, MLBTR took a look at a relatively small group of expected receivers at position players. Pitching has more appeal, and there could be some edge cases based on selection decisions and health concerns.
no doubt
This set is very simple. Valdez and Suarez should easily command nine-figure contracts. Based on his durability, ability, and outstanding strikeout potential, Seth will likely command a nine-figure asking price when the offseason begins. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half may prevent him from cashing in at that level, but even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped, he’ll at least be able to get a two- or three-year opt-out contract. There was no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.
Diaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38 of his contract. He wouldn’t do it just to accept a $22 one-year offer. He will reject qualifying offers and may seek a four-year deal paying around $20MM per year.
possible recipients
All of these pitchers also appear to be comfortable catchers, although it’s not 100% certain that they will all turn down as well as the top pitchers. Gallen had an up-and-down season, averaging a 4.83 ERA in 192 innings. His 21.5 percent strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he was struggling at the plate for the first time in four seasons. This isn’t exactly an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 and still a few months away from earning a $150MM contract. While he can’t achieve that goal just yet, he should be able to sign a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.
If King and Woodruff finish the season at full strength, they’ll definitely turn down QO. King missed a few months with a nasty nerve injury in his throwing shoulder and then a few more weeks with a knee issue. He returned in mid-September but didn’t last more than five innings in any of his final four games. The Padres put him on the playoff roster but pushed his depth far enough that they thinned out the roster. Yu Darvish Start a shutout while keeping King in the bullpen. There’s still a chance he’ll turn down qualifying offers and get a multi-year deal, but it’ll be an uphill battle for the nine-figure salary that once seemed on track.
Woodruff ended the season on the injured list with a strained lat muscle. He missed all of 2024 and the first half of last season rehabbing from shoulder surgery. In between, he’s one of the best pitchers on the planet. He had a 3.20 ERA in 12 starts and a 32% strikeout rate. Teams are always looking for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that ceiling. Durability issues and his age (33 in February) could keep him on the job for another two to three years, but he should sign a multi-year deal that pays him equal to or more than the qualifying offer.
border call
Flaherty has a player option worth $20MM. He will only become a free agent if he believes he can beat his competition on the open market. If the Tigers made a qualifying offer of an additional $2, would he reject the option? This seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible. He’ll have about two weeks after receiving the QO to assess the market, and if he doesn’t find the kind of early interest he’s hoping for, it might make sense to accept the offer.
The Tigers need to decide if the chance is worth taking. Flaherty had a middling 4.64 ERA, but he struck out 27.6 percent of the time on 31 catches. There are some similarities with Nick Pivetta This time last year: A reliable source of innings with +strikeout/walk characteristics, but concerns about his home run tendencies. It’s a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. The gamble ended up giving the Red Sox the 75th overall pick in the draft. If Flaherty turns down the QO and still gets $50MM+ guaranteed from another team (like Pivetta did), the Tigers, who are revenue share recipients, will receive the pick after the first round.
Giolito lost the 2024 season to stent surgery. He started the year on the injured list due to a hamstring strain in spring training. He posted a nearly 5.00 ERA in May and then became a productive mid-rounder over the next few months. Starting in June, Giolito posted a 3.03 ERA in 20 starts and 113 innings.
A strikeout rate below 20% casts some doubt on the sustainability of this run prevention. Still, he looks like a solid third starter and will perform well on the open market once he crosses the 140-inning threshold and converts his $14MM team option into a $19MM co-term. Luis Severino With a similar profile, he was offered three years and $67M with an opt-out after rejecting a qualifying offer last winter. While this contract is overpaying for a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to taking on a QO.
Then he got hurt again. At the end of the regular season, Giolito suffered an irritation in his flexor muscles and bone problems in his throwing elbow. He didn’t make the wild-card roster and won’t play even if the Red Sox make a deep playoff run. Giolito told MassLive’s Chris Cotillo that the ligament was not damaged and the issue should heal with rest. Whether he goes to QO will depend on Boston’s risk tolerance for the elbow.
The Red Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates suggest it is slightly above the base threshold of 241MM. If that’s the case, they would only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito turns down QO and signs elsewhere. If they stayed below the tax threshold, it would fall within the overall range of #75 – just like Pivetta’s choice. The situation won’t be made public until MLB releases final payroll statistics in December, but teams certainly know what they’re getting into.
Imonaga has a complicated option set that could prevent him from hitting free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise their three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they refuse, Imonaga has the option to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM of his contract. If both sides reject the option structure, he will become a free agent. The Cubs then need to decide whether to make a qualifying offer or be content to let Imonaga walk.
The long-held assumption was that the team would exercise its three-year option. Imonaga has been excellent in 2024, posting a 3.08 ERA in 20 starts through the end of August this season. He then suffered a drubbing in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs in 6 2/3 innings in two postseason starts. He has given up at least one home run in each of his past nine regular-season starts and two postseason appearances. Imonaga threw an MLB-worst 20 long balls in the second half.
This may still be an issue. Imonaga’s fastball velocity is around 90 mph and he is an extreme flyball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters in his rookie season, his strikeout rate dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6 percent this year. While there are plenty of red flags, he has a 3.28 ERA in 318 MLB innings over the past two seasons. How much of an impact did the last six weeks have on his future projection with the Cubs?
Unlikely/Long shot
This group is mentioned in passing mainly because there are usually one or two successful winners each year. Pivetta, esp. Nick Martinez I fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it would be a major surprise if anyone in this group receives QO.
Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the best closers in the game and should be getting a two-year power-play contract during his age-35-36 season. The Padres have been dealing with short-term payroll issues over the past few years, though, and they’ve Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handling the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Mohon Can be closed. With greater needs in the rotation and first base, they should let Suarez walk.
Mahler posted a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts but didn’t miss many at-bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that sidelined him for three months from mid-June to September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need an overhaul of their roster. Throwing $22MM into Mahle doesn’t make much sense.
Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams often reserve QOs for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would have been in that group if he had had a typical platform year, but he finished his first and likely only season in the Bronx with an ERA of nearly 5.00.
Not eligible
Players who have previously received a qualifying offer during their career cannot be tagged with a second offer. That rules out Bassett, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make offers to players who spent the entire last season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Little (unlikely anyway) were all traded before the deadline.
