After two days of making a comeback and never quite passed, our Champions League semifinals started.
Interestingly, it was the team that made the biggest noise when they came on stage in the second round 'remontada' It seems the least likely to overturn their deficit. Real Madrid collapsed on the soil of a stubborn Arsenal side and the Gunners reached their last four games for the first time in 16 years.
Mikel Arteta's men are chasing history, and their upcoming draw with Paris Saint-Germain means we'll surely have a potential first-time winner in the exhibition event on May 26.
Three of the top four in the league stage are still in the game, with four different countries representing. Several super semi-finals are waiting, and it's Opta's supercomputer's evaluation of each team's chances to win the game, with only a few obstacles left.
|
team |
Chance to win the Champions League (%) |
|---|---|
|
arsenal |
28.7 |
|
between |
25.5 |
|
PSG |
24.0 |
|
Barcelona |
21.8 |
Opta regards Arsenal as a Champions League favorite after demise of Madrid last week. A 2-1 mature victory in the Spanish capital on Wednesday didn't hinder their chances, with the Supercomputer backing the Gunners bypassing PSG in the semi-finals and defeating Inter in Barcelona or Munich at the end of May.
Arsenal won the 28.7% simulation run by Opta's supercomputer, the most of the four teams.
The International Front may not be as tenacious as it was before under Simone Inzaghi, but Opta's chances of reaching the final after defeating Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals are bullish. The conclusion of the second round was crazy, but Nerazzurri insisted on a 4-3 overall victory.
Opta Inter's chances of winning its first Champions League title since 2010 are 25.5% – they are the second favorite before the semifinals.
The man in Inzaghi met Barcelona in the iconic semifinal 15 years ago. Although Hansi Flick's Blaugrana hit La Liga with four points in all 2025 games, the Olympics are not particularly good for the Catalans.
According to Supercomputers, Barcelona is the most unlikely champion, as they only have the upper hand in 21.8% of Opta simulations. They obviously don't like what they saw on Tuesday night as Borussia Dortmund threatened to overturn a 4-0 deficit from the first leg.
Aston Villa also handed the all-around PSG in the second leg of the quarter-finals, but Luis Enrique's side quickly succumbed to the storm three times in a row at the beginning of the second half. They showed enough courage to improve and lost 2-0 to Arsenal in the UAE 2-0 in October.
Les Parisiens has shown in this calendar year that they have started in early 2024/25. Still, Opta Fantasy is still the Gunners, so PSG's Champions League Glory Opportunity rate is 24%.
