Veterans liked when the Cardinal began the self-proclaimed young sports last offseason Sonny Gray,,,,, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado Due to the lack of trade provisions in the contract, they control their future. Anyway, Arenado finally considered the possibility of considering trade, but Gray and Contreras were soon intent on staying at the St. Louis Club. However, in the upcoming offseason, Gray will not be like this. Asked after last night’s game if he thought he had to consider a deal this winter, the former All-Star frankly admitted the change in tune (via link to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Office):
“I think I’m really frank, honestly. I absolutely miss me. Whether I really decided to go somewhere – or not – I didn’t have full control over that. Obviously, I can control where I can’t go or not. I’m going to be 36. I’m going to be my season 14. This is my season 14. What was my contract last year. I don’t know what the future is.”
On November 36, Gray enjoyed another steady season in 2025, hitting 26.7% in 180 2/3 innings, strikeout 26.7%, walking 5% and 43.9% ground ball rate. Indicators like FIP (3.39) and Siera (3.29) feel that his average is much better. Since signing with the card in the 2023-24 offseason, Gray has won 60 starts in 347 innings and turned with a 4.07 ERA (3.27 FIP, 3.16 SIERA).
On the surface, this performance and Gray’s wider record seem to create a lot of trade value, but right-handed contracts complicate things. Even with all no trade protections, the linebacker nature of the contract will make it difficult for new baseball business President Chaim Bloom (announced as the successor to incumbent President John Mozeliak) to extract the true value of former Cy Young Runnerner.
Gray entered the final season of three years, $75mm in contract. However, he made only 10mm in his first year of contract and 25mm in 2025. and At least a 5mm acquisition will be made during the $30mm club in the 2027 season. The 2022-26 CBA stipulates that for traders, their luxury tax blows are recalculated to match their remaining contracts. Therefore, the Gray comes with a 40mm CBT number. For a team that doesn’t pay a luxury tax, this may not be the one who trades. But for third-time payers with the highest fine (such as Dodge, Metropolitan, Phillies, Yankees), Gray will be taxed 110%; he effectively spent their amazing 84mm.
No team will reach this length in a year’s grey, and moreover, the card can’t even market the ’27 Club option as a potential benefit. Gray’s contract states that if his 2027 choice is exercised, he can simply lapse the option and elect a free agent. If the grey pitches are good enough next year, worth a 30mm salary in 2027, he may just opt out of that option. This saves the new team 5mm margin (plus any related taxes), but that’s not the selling point of the Cardinals when negotiating.
While we have seen several pitchers with annual value exceeding a year’s entry into force, with 40mm left on Gray’s contract, MLBTR’s contract tracker shows that it’s only used for transparent CY Young-Caliber Arms of Peave Seasons. Justin Verlander and Max Shezer When they were bigger than Grey, they both earned 43.333mm of annual value, but Verlander won the Al Cy Young in 2022, while Scherzer just released a 2.46 ERA and finished third in the first-year NL CY Young vote. Zack WheelerThe Phillies’ three-year extension paid him $42mm per year, but signed when Wheeler was one year younger and competed again in the 3.06 ERA in his first 629 1/3 innings.
Grey himself is a decorative pitcher – a former first-round draft pick and three-time All-Star, who ended twice in the top three of the Cy Young votes in the U.S. This includes the recent second-place finish for Minnesota in 2023. However, his work at the Cardinal is a few steps lower than other 40mm aces per year.
There is no doubt that gray will be a demand commodity in a vacuum. He was ranked 13th among all major league pitchers since the 2019 season, when his ERA was strong at the 3.51 ERA. He missed the bat, owned the plus command, and kept the ball on the ground with a slightly above average clip. If Gray was a free agent and announced that he would only sign a one-year deal, he could order close to 30mm, or a little more. Teams, especially large markets, pay high clubs – are often willing to pay premiums for AAVs to limit the long-term risks of free agent contracts.
Even if some teams value him within that range, the Cardinal needs to eat about 10mm of food to pay for the grey. If they want to really create the type of surplus value to make them get significant returns, then they may need to eat nearly 20-25mm of contract. This may not offer them advanced prospects, but at this price point they can prove to require a smaller leaguer or two stable secondary leagues to add mid-level to the farm system.
It is unclear how comfortable it would be to have a lot of money to get a net return on prospects. If just liquidating salary is the goal, then the card may eat 8-10mm, finding someone with little reward, similar to the Bear’s deal Cody Bellinger I went to the Yankees last winter. The strength of any potential reward will depend on the number of contracts the DeWitt family is willing to repay. These are the conversations that Bloom and ownership will have in the coming weeks.
It is obvious at this point that Gray’s intention is to consider the possibility of abandoning the full trade-free clause, as well as the type of offseason in crisis.
“I know the deal,” Gray said last night, as he and Bloom talked in detail about the upcoming offseason. “I know the direction. … I’m here to win. Two years ago, I signed here with the expectation of winning and trying to win, but that didn’t play in that way. I want to win. I want to win. I want to win, I want to win.”
According to everything Gray said last night, yesterday’s outing is very likely – six innings, two runs, seven hits, two walks, seven strikeouts – representing the last appearance of his Cardinal tenure.
