Rich Hill has a chance. On Tuesday, royals announced they had agreed to a minor league deal with the 45-year-old left-handed starter. He began his career in 2002 with Boise Hawks, who is no longer part of affiliated baseball. Hill’s journey from Grand Slam to Independence, then back to a professional renaissance in the late 1930s is one of the true stories of the game and it’s not over yet. If he enters Kansas City, he will take Edwin Jackson to the most useful player against the flawless grid and appear in 14 different major league teams. However, this is by no means certain.
Hill started the 2015 season – yes, this historical overview part was skipped in the first 13 years of Hill’s career – the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. The Red Sox signed in August, from 2015 to 2020, he signed 43-22 with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.48 FIP. During that time, Hill lifted 10.7 wars, leaning on (sometimes exclusive) an average of 90 mph curves, hitting nearly 29% of the batsmen he faced and throwing 1.80 ERAs in both World Series.
In the 2021 season, Hill was 41 years old, marking the dividing line. He has 4.51 ERA FIP and 4.52 XFIP over the past four seasons. His strikeout rate dropped to 21.1%. In 2023, Hill released a 4.76 ERA with Pirates, then exploded after the deadline to Padres, running 8.23 ERA and 10 appearances of 6.77 FIP on 10.23 ERA. He sat at the start of the 2024 season, spending time with his family, and then joined the Red Sox in August, with a 4.91 ERA in four appearances and 3 2/3 innings, with ugly peripherals. His fastball even hit 90 mph at the first time. The team released him in early September.
Hill pitched for Team USA in the WBSC Premier12 Championship in November, failed to win the run in 10 1/3 innings and hit 14 batsmen. During the game, MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that Hill hopes to return to the court again this season. He doesn't plan to start this season like he did in 2024, but there is no agreement. Last week, Hill appeared on the “Baseball is Not Boring” podcast and discussed his desire and desire to return to professionalism. He revealed that he has been throwing regular bullpens and feeling 100% and he has been sending track and field data to teams who may be interested in signing him. He hopes to sign a deal earlier to give himself a chance to trade on the deadline in case things are not resolved.
The first step is completed. Hill will report to the Royals’ Marvel Spring Training House in Arizona before joining the Triple-A Omaha Storm Chaser. However, the second step can be tricky. “He's been throwing and saying he feels good. We've actually contacted him. He's already in touch with him last year. He's hoping there's more clear paths to the major leagues, so we're in touch with him this year and said, “Hey, hey, look, we've got a chance to start in Triple-A, we don't know if there's a big game.” But he wanted to keep pitching, so we thought it was a good place. ”
The reason for unclear paths is simple. Regardless of whether you slice it, there are top ten members of the royal family. Their starters ranked first in the inning, War and Times ranked second, FIP ranked fifth, XFIP ranked eighth, and DRA- ranked eighth. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen combined 44 times this season in the team's 45 seasons. Noah Cameron made his debut on April 30 with a 6 1/3 division-free game before being drafted back to Omaha, where he ranked 45th. This is how the rotation has been so far:
The Royals started to spin well
| Name | IP | k% | era | FIP | xfip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic | 54.1 | 25.6 | 1.66 | 2.70 | 3.40 |
| Michael Wacha | 51.2 | 17.4 | 2.96 | 3.10 | 4.29 |
| Seth Lugo | 56.2 | 18.9 | 3.02 | 4.53 | 4.06 |
| Michael Lorenson | 45.1 | 20.7 | 3.57 | 4.62 | 4.22 |
| Cole Ragans | 40.2 | 38.0 | 4.20 | 2.22 | 2.24 |
Several pitchers outperform peripherals and therefore may return, although employee ACE numbers may be a change in another direction. Ragans has been one of the best pitchers in the league since the 2023 Aroldis Chapman trade, struggling to reach a 4.20 ERA despite excellent peripherals. Of the pitcher who threw at least 40 innings, his war was the tenth highest war, the fifth highest BABIP and the 16th lowest stock rate.
Still, the rotation will inevitably require reinforcements at some point, and depth is a real problem. Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright had shoulder problems all season. Wright started two recovery earlier this month, but he was flinching again with his shoulder fatigue lifting his head. Nine pitchers have already started a game for Omaha this season, and Cameron is one of two pitchers below 5.40 in the following era. If Hill could even play well in Omaha, he might have a chance to start for the royal family even if he is on the deep list.
The Kansas City bullpen also performed well, although it didn’t dominate as much as the rotation. It can also use left-handed reinforcements, the earlier the earlier. If you just look at the performance of the left-handed rescuer, the royal family has an ERA of 4.95, ranking 24th in baseball. Royal Lefty Relief also ranked 27th in FIP and 20th in XFIP. Daniel Lynch IV has been extinguished (and some beneficiaries of batting luck), but so far Sam Long and Angel Zerpa are horrifying. Evan Sisk has performed well in Omaha and has been briefly in the Big Club, but most of the best-performing rescuers for the Storm Chaser are right-handed. Hill once again had the opportunity to stand out on a relatively short depth chart through a good performance.
Whether this is possible remains to be seen. Hill's success in November was encouraging, and the Royals wouldn't have signed him if the Royals didn't see anything in his track and field statistics. However, Hill's last XFIP under 4.00 or XFIP under 100 was in 2019 (except his brief 2024 campaign, when Hill won 92 DRA- in his 3 2/3 innings). After hovering for about 88 mph for years, his fastball averaged nearly 86 last season. Although this is a very small sample, Hill is a different pitcher for the Red Sox, throwing curveballs only 11% of the time and relying on the sweeper the model prefers. It would be interesting to see if these changes are funnels. Will he insist on moving forward with the sweeper? Will his four sales stay below the most important Delorean Time Travel Threshold?
Most of us want Hill just because he is fun. He used all the tricks in the crafty left-handed manual, screwed up with timing, changed the release point, changed the speed, and changed the tightness of his wrestling kick. And, when he releases every pitch, he does it all with intensity, and when he doesn't do it like the command, he will be sworn in. This is the last fastball he threw in the profession at 90 mph.
Hill is also one of the most interesting players, not to mention participants who compete in one of the most morbid games. Baseball fans will not lack baseball fans willing to enter Kansas City. If he can fix this, the real Sickos will hope to reach a deadline deal that will bring him to his Big 15 team and a brand new record.
