The World Series is right around the corner and the offseason starts in two weeks. One of the team’s first key decisions is whether to extend a qualifying offer to any impending free agent. Clubs must make a QO decision by the fifth day after the World Series.
QO is a one-year offer calculated based on the average of MLB’s 125 highest salaries. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive a QO have about two weeks to get an initial understanding of the market before deciding whether to accept it. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of next season – just like any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.
If a player declines and signs with another team, his former team will receive draft compensation. The signing club will lose a draft pick and potential international signing bonus space. Compensation and penalties vary based on a team’s revenue share and luxury tax status. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at what each team would gain if they lost an eligible free agent, as well as the penalty they would pay to sign one.
We’ll start with a look at the position players and preview the pitchers later in the week. While there may be some close calls on the pitching side, there shouldn’t be too much intrigue in the at-bat decisions. Many of this year’s top free-agent hitters are ineligible for qualifying offers, meaning only four may receive offers — and each will have a relatively easy decision to turn them down.
no doubt
There’s not much to say about this trio. They will all receive and reject the QO. Tucker will likely seek a contract north of $400, while Bichette should be targeting north of $200 despite a season-ending knee sprain. Schwarber’s age and lack of defensive value will keep him below $200, but he’ll easily beat the $22 per season contract that should be at least four years.
possible recipients
There’s also a chance Grisham will receive a qualifying offer, though that’s probably 90-95 percent better than a guaranteed top-tier lock. After slugging 34 homers, he should be easy to say no to, and impressive batting metrics back him up. Despite a dip in Grisham’s typically strong defensive production, he still has a chance to earn a four-out-of-five-year contract in his age-29 season. He’s the best center fielder in the class.
The only argument against the Yankees releasing a QO is that they, as luxury tax taxpayers, will receive minimal compensation: a draft pick after the fourth round. If they think there’s only a 10% chance Grisham accepts, maybe they’d rather not risk paying $22MM in the first two weeks of the offseason and the $24MM in luxury tax that goes with it. Still, the thought is that they would be happy to bring Grisham back if he was willing to accept a one-year guarantee.
long shot
Polanco is having a fantastic second season in Seattle. He hit 26 home runs in 524 regular season games, hitting .265/.326/.495. His .703 OPS in the postseason wasn’t great overall, but he hit 3 more homers (including 2 homers) Tarik Skubal Division Series Game 2 win). Considering the difficulty of hitting the ball at T-Mobile Park, this was arguably the best offensive performance of his career. With that said, it would be difficult for the Mariners to extend a $22MM offer to a 32-year-old whose defense is questionable due to a knee injury. There’s a good chance Polanco will take it, as his age and durability issues should limit his three-year deal even if he doesn’t have draft compensation attached.
Torres is expected to receive a qualifying offer after hitting .281/.387/.425 in the first half of the All-Star Game. He then hit .223/.320/.339 and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery. While injuries offer an explanation for the late-season decline in production, it’s more likely that Torres is what he is: an above-average but not great hitter with mediocre second base. He finished his lone season in Detroit with a .256/.358/.387 line and 16 home runs, similar to what he posted during his one-year walk with the Yankees (.257/.330/.378). This netted him a free agent contract worth $15MM. Detroit would be hard-pressed to offer him the extra $7MM and would likely lock up that money before mid-November.
That’s basically it for any hitter who has a chance at QO. The only player being considered at this level is Louis Alas. While he still has the best contact skills in the game and has a good chance of hitting .300, the overall impact isn’t enough to justify a $22MM salary. Among 32 first basemen with more than 400 at-bats, Araz ranks 19th in on-base percentage (.327) and 26th in slugging percentage (.392).
Not eligible
Players who have previously received a qualifying offer during their career cannot be tagged with a second offer. That rules out Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman, Realmuto and Story (who seems unlikely to opt out anyway). Teams can only make offers to players who spent the entire last season on their roster. Bader, Naylor, O’Hearn and Suarez were all traded before the deadline. The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from Tampa Bay in September.
