Did you know Tarik Skubal attended Seattle University? What is that? Have you already known it? oh. OK, that’s great. Thank you for your research. I hope you are ready to get so deeply stuck in your brain next week for the next few decades, so that when all the other thoughts start to fall out of your aging skull, that’s all that’s left. “The Red Hawks in Seattle, the only DI program can offer him a scholarship,” you mumble over and over like a protective spell as you walk through the nursing home hall. The Detroit Tigers headed to Seattle for the American League Division Series after defeating Cleveland’s Guardian in the wildcard round. Tarik Skubal is going home. Let’s start the preview.
Ranked second in the American League, Seattle’s resting Mariners are certainly an obvious favorite. They have three (or four) excellent starters line up. They have top ten bullpens in both ERA and FIP. Their team 113 WRC+ makes them the third best offense in baseball. They have won 17 seasons in the last 21 games. On the other hand, it is worth noting that all 17 wins compete with non-competitive teams. Before these 21 games began, the Mariners lost consecutively to non-race teams. The last scene of their regular season was being swept by the Dodgers. The Mariners ended the season with three more wins than the Tigers and gained a differential advantage with just five runs. Their Pythagoras record is the same. These teams are not as different as you think.
During the wildcard turn, the Tigers were forced to clear their tricks to stop a guardian who stole Al Central Crown from under his nose. They rely on their trump card, and they coaxed enough great performances, which is a huge bullpen, playing small balls, inducing turnovers and confusing their best batsman. In Game 3, they even became desperate enough to try to score some. Will they fall into exhausted ALDS, or will they end up in the All-Star Game with the best record in baseball?
In another canoe, the question is whether sailors will rust. They have a timeline designed to put them in the sway of things during five days of layoffs. They flew together on weekdays and held a light team workout on Tuesday. They held a full lineup in front of fans on Wednesday and Thursday, filled with salmon runs, with Victor Robles jumping in and winning to ensure Humpy’s winning streak remains intact. (More importantly, Robles showed no signs of spawning and then after the salmon runs tradition. Suzuki Ichiro plays the right field and flashes Julio Rodríguez’s No Fly Zone logo after grabbing. The sailors will have a light workout today. “Like they say, exercise is lotion,” Rowley told reporters, leading one to wonder: Who are they? Why do they say that? How can I go back to an era where this expression doesn’t emerge in my consciousness?
Start pitching
After using their three reliable starters in the wildcard series, the Tigers lack of pitching depth is likely the story of Game 1. Skubal, All Aces’ Ace Skubal lined up for Game 2 during regular breaks on Sunday, with Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty ranked 3 and 4 in the 3 and 4. The good news for the Tigers is that two travel days will allow Skubal to play Game 5 during regular breaks.
In a sense, the biggest question for the Mariners is whether Brian Wo can sell at any time during the series. Woo ranked 15-7 with a 2.94 ERA this season, which would be a logical first starter, but he hasn’t pitched since September 19 due to pleural inflammation. He threw a 15-simulated game on Thursday but told reporters: “I’m still not the game speed of everything… The week from now on, hopefully we’ll be in a better position.” But the week from Thursday will be Game 5. As you can see, it would be great to have the best starter for Game 5, but it still gives the team a big hole to insert Game 4.
The Mariners are expected to announce their first starter today, with a choice of three pitchers, including five names: Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Louis Castillo. Although Kirby ran 4.21 ERA this year, the highest season to date, he and Castillo both finished the season with a high profile, while all three pitchers had a game rate between 2.4 and 2.4 and 2.6 wars between 3.38 and 3.88. Whatever orders they decide, the sailors can come out with three high-quality beginners.
This will leave Game 4 just four days after Game 1, which means the starters in Game 1 will not be ready for a full break. In an ideal world, WOO will be ready on Wednesday, and the Mariners will have their best pitchers, which will be a knockout match for one team or another. More likely, the Mariners will use some combination of Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock while pieced together the bullpen game. Get Woo back to Game 5 – no less in the game against Skubal – but by then, the Mariners had already put their Game 1 and Game 2 starters to pitch at regular breaks. Woo won’t represent such a big improvement. Get him back to Game 4, Dodge Bullpen Game or an unstoppable starter can really change the color of the series. Still, this is unlikely, and both teams may end up having to survive some form of bullpen game.
As for which of Seattle’s three healthy appetizers will catch the ball tomorrow, it may at least have some impact on Seattle’s decision-making process. They have a big split this season. Kirby is by far the worst era, but the best FIP. If the sailors put these numbers in, they might want to push him to Game 3:
Seattle starter split
| Name | Family Age | The Age of Road | Home FIP | Road FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Castillo | 2.60 | 4.71 | 3.69 | 4.11 |
| Logan Gilbert | 2.24 | 4.74 | 2.45 | 4.33 |
| George Kirby | 3.38 | 5.16 | 3.12 | 3.64 |
Relief pitch
The bullpen looks like the real difference between these two teams. In Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier, sailors can launch four different rescuers with less than the 3.00 era (only FIP above 1.69). Luke Jackson also knocked out 10 games in 10 games since he went from Detroit to Seattle, although it’s certainly not that impressive early-season results.
In the regular season, the Tiger Bulls ranked 17th, FIP ranked 24th, and then the numbers on the low guardian offense in the wild card were even worse. Now, they will face one of the best offenses in baseball. Will Wers, Kyle Finnegan and Tyler Holton made excellent pitches to the Guardians, but if either of them were shaky, the Tigers might not have the depth to get the job done.
hit
Sailors should have an advantage here for several reasons. Although they’ve been just eight times higher than the Tigers’ run throughout the season, they did it in baseball’s most difficult offensive environment. They have WRC+ advantages, 113 to 103. They can launch MVP candidates Cal Raleigh and Rodríguez, who have been playing at MVP speed in the second half as usual. Among Dominic Canzone, Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco and Randy Arozarena, they also have four players with 120 WRC+ or higher. The only Tigers to beat Mark were 121-year-old Riley Greene and Jahmai Jones, who ran 159 WRC+ in just 150 set appearances. The Mariners will also use up all the starters on their right-handed, while the Tigers have been even worse on the right this year, lasting 98 WRC+. Additionally, the Tigers played a home run with Guardians with a home run, hitting .218.
Nevertheless, neither team is a driving force. Javier Báez is the biggest hole in the Detroit roster this season, with Volker (WRC) + just 86, but he stands out in the wild card series. Furthermore, his huge weakness is chasing the court out of the strike zone, and in the Mariners he faces the team with the third-highest regional rate in baseball. Kerry Carpenter also has a great wildcard series, and Colt Keith and his 109 WRC+ may also return at some point in the series due to inflamed ribs. Plus, the Tigers don’t have to face Tarik Skubal.
The narrative just sat there waiting for us. Raleigh will have a chance to add an exclamation mark in a possible MVP season. The presumptive Al Cy Young Skubal might have a chance to throw two games in Seattle, including Game 5 (where, I don’t know if you’ve heard of him before, he went to college). Over the past three years, the Mariners have started a rotation of the league’s best era, with a chance to dominate the playoffs. No matter what happens, we either hear the Tigers finally rust after the sailors are rusted after the layoffs, or the Guardians expose the Tigers’ weaknesses, and the Mariners’ 90-win season proves that they are true champion contenders. At some point between all the storylines, they also play some baseball.
