first baseman Pete Alonso Earning his ticket through free agency for the second consecutive time, he told reporters at the end of the regular season that he intended to opt out of the final year of his contract and return to the open market. He won’t officially become a free agent until five days after the World Series, and rumors are already starting to circulate about the price Alonso will ask for when he returns to the market. Alonso is expected to seek a contract of at least seven years when he returns to free agency, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post.
It’s natural for players to set a high bar for contract negotiations entering free agency, but it would be surprising if Alonso was able to secure such an arrangement. A seven-year deal would cover the slugger’s age-31 through -37 seasons, and that kind of scarce air is hard to come by in free agency for a slugger with limited defense. dodgers star freddie freeman Signing age is 37, but Freeman is an MVP winner and future Hall of Famer. It’s hard to argue that Alonso is in the same stratosphere, and few other first basemen have achieved this kind of long-term security.
Paul GoldschmidtThe extension with the Cardinals is just five years and $130 million, ends at the end of his 36-year-old campaign, and Matt OlsonThe eight-year, $16MM extension with Atlanta is only guaranteed after his age-35 season. Goldschmidt and Olson were also winning Gold Glove Awards for their work at first base when they signed those contracts, while Alonso was considered one of the weaker defensive first basemen in the game by defensive metrics and by many scouts. Although Puma pointed out Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman As Boras’ other clients managed to secure contracts similar in scope to what Alonso was expected to seek, it must also be noted that Chapman actually signed a six-year contract extension with the Giants, having previously signed a shorter-term deal similar to the one Alonso would opt out of.
What’s more, Semien was playing shortstop when he signed with the Rangers, and Chapman was a multiple-time Gold Glove winner at third base. When it comes to financial expectations for infielders with higher defensive coverage, the standards are much different than those for first basemen. This is part of the reason players like it Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa They found themselves signing a short-term deal in free agency similar to the one Alonso signed last winter, with a high average annual value, and they were able to command a higher AAV than Alonso would have received on a two-year deal. The same principle applies to larger transactions and helps explain why some people like Sander Bogaerts Although the offensive numbers weren’t as strong as a player like Alonso, he still managed to secure a contract that would pay him through his age-40 season.
Even if Alonso doesn’t get the seven-year guarantee he covets, he can still be expected to perform much better this time around in free agency than he did last season. After all, he’s no longer stuck with draft compensation after turning down a qualifying offer from the Mets last winter. That means the team signing him from Queens won’t have to give up draft capital to include him, a reality that could help his market a lot. Furthermore, Alonso’s platform season is much stronger this year than in 2024. This season, Alonso appeared in 162 games for the second consecutive season and slashed .277/.347/.524 with a wRC+ of 141, matching his second-best career mark set in 2022.
Alonso turned down a seven-year, $15MM extension offer from the Mets back in 2023. The deal would cover his final year of arbitration eligibility, for which he ultimately received $20.5MM. In other words, he would need to earn over $137.5MM between 2025 and 2030 to surpass that benchmark. He’s making $30MM this year, which means he’ll need to break $107.5MM over the next five seasons if he wants to exceed the value of the extension he gave up. For now, it seems pretty safe to bet on him doing just that.
Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals covers his age-32 through age-36 seasons, earning him $130MM over five years. While Goldschmidt’s 145 career wRC+ when he signed the deal is far stronger than Alonso’s 132 career wRC+ entering the offseason, Alonso will be entering his age-31 season at the start of his next contract and will benefit from more than five years of inflation since St. Louis signed the deal before the start of the 2019 season. Considering he doesn’t even need to meet Goldschmidt’s guarantee to beat an extension offer in 2023, it seems safe to say that Alonso will lead the free agent market this year as long as he doesn’t have to settle for another short-term deal.
