After they were in turmoil at white-hot wineries, the Cubs had their best record in baseball for most of the season. You know the highlights: Pete Crow-Armstrong flew through the air and hit a home run. Kyle Tucker is a superstar who named himself before hitting a free agent. Michael Busch’s own little crack. Seiya Suzuki is a consistent power threat. Dansby Swanson is a glove-first shortstop metronome.
In fact, you can name the name for quite some time before reaching the two longest batsmen of the Cubs. Ian Happ made his debut back in 2017. He has transitioned from the middle of the roster in nearly a decade to the corner outfield, a regular regular season game, though rarely an All-Star. However, he is not the focus of today’s articles. That would be another longest-standing cub, Nico Hoerner.
Hoerner had a cup of coffee at the end of the 2019 season, played a backup role in 2020, and was injured all the time when he appeared to be a starter in 2021. He has been a locked man ever since, at shortstop for a year, then second after Swanson signed with Swanson with the free agency team signed with Swanson. Between a series of new and more exciting Bear debuts and the entire trade nature in the competition, Hoerner’s star is often overlooked. But Hoerner is a star, regardless of whether it is overlooked, so I think I check out his excellence when he stirs him in another quiet and excellent season.
Suitably, Davy Andrews’ last two Fanggraphs articles about Hoerner are about the season without power and always contact. These two things perfectly explain the extremes of Hoerner’s game. But despite these two extremes, Horner’s offensive skills are actually almost ordinary.
His career 102 WRC+ didn’t even start describing it. Hoerner has never had a WRC+ season with over 108. He has been in his first year of the regular season since 2021 and has never had a season below 102 WRC+. His career average was 6% higher and his average was 7% lower in playing. His Babipu? A very normal .306; nothing strange or seemingly unsustainable here.
Many minor league defensive wizards try to put together offensive games like Hoerner. Almost all of them failed. Nick Allen, Nicky Lopez, David Fletcher, Nick Madrigal, Joey Wendle, Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Some of them are solid players, but none of them manage to make a powerless and powerless game. The pitchers just didn’t let them. The stable diet of fastballs in early strike zones and the diet of breakballs that are annoying by favorable counting are really a combination.
Staying picky and contact is both difficult and difficult. Polluting a tough court is great, but if you are used to swinging defensively, the transition to chasing the court outside the area is both catastrophic and unavoidable. Whether it’s a good strikeout or not enough walking distance, there’s usually something. These are not usually questions of ineligibility, but for players of this general style, this is problematic. Making such a large contact often involves the complete sacrifice of power; for example, Hoerner’s bat speed is the seventh percentage point, while the sixth percentage point for hard hit rate. If you never draw any walks away, or if you strike too much, the math doesn’t add up.
For Hoerner, the balance has been maintained. He chased his frequency today as he did at the beginning of his career and connected at an astonishing speed as usual. See how consistent he performed:
Nico Hoerner consistency
| Year | Chase % | touch% | k-bb% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 33.6% | 86.7% | 5.6% | .129 |
| 2023 | 30.9% | 88.6% | 5.0% | .100 |
| 2024 | 31.8% | 89.1% | 3.4% | .100 |
| 2025 | 32.3% | 89.6% | 1.7% | .086 |
I compared the middle field player he compared with him? Their numbers mostly have the same pattern: higher area rates, higher chase rates and lower K-BB%, lower ISO over time. All of this makes sense, flowing naturally from the limitations of the batsman. But Hoerner hasn’t done that yet. Even if he saw more strikes, he maintained an aggression that was almost completely unchanged. He walked less than ever, but less than ever. If the pitcher wants to throw a bunch of stuff in the area, that’s great. He will play a role. It makes sense that Hoerner almost never walks – with a career ISO of 0.100, the opposition should really let him put the ball in the game instead of giving him a free base, so if the pitcher able Find the area against Hoerner and they will. But it also makes sense that he almost never strikes because he makes a lot of contact and doesn’t swing on a bad court.
This doesn’t sound like an amazing skill, but in fact, it’s not. Overall, almost average score. But the average is great! Baseball is hard! Hoerner’s Bat has been the roughest part of his assumption. When he became a base, he was a regular and successful thief. He has been ranked fifth in steals since 2022, with his 86% editing success when he took off. His instinct is based on it, and it is also very fast. He is undoubtedly one of the best runners in the major leagues. This is not even his best skill.
Defensively, Horner is rare and a real shortstop hitting second base. He did this because Swanson occupied the shortage, but there was no doubt that Holner’s kindness was there. He performed well in 2022, second only to outstanding, even second. The best defensive second basemen are all like this – Brice Turang, Andres Gimenez, Bryson Stott and Marcus Semien all comply with the bill. Somewhere along the line, they cut a great defender, but it was based on choice rather than out of necessity. Most teams don’t have this luxury because they play a great shortstop defender in shortstop. Like the other four, Hoerner is great with gloves. He is definitely handheld measures and has enough arm strength to make the entire package work properly. He has been the 10th valuable defender since the start of the 2022 season. The guy in front of him? A bunch of great catchers and elite shortstops.
What do you get when you combine elite defense with average bats? It turns out that about four wins per year. Hoerner’s war is just as consistent as his WRC+. He signed in with a 4.3 in 2022, 4.6 in 2023 and 3.9 in 2024. He is on the pace of the 4.1 war in 2025. It may not sound like there are many – he never had a breakthrough season – but there aren’t many players in baseball. In the last four years, 22nd of all batsmen in the war, it may be shocked to be in trouble between William Contreras, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Xander Bogaerts.
It seems strange to see him at a high position on the list, right? It certainly has it for me. When I look at the war rankings, I tend to discount the defensive experts. The way we calculate their value is messy, and it always seems like one person or another soars a brilliant season of Babip and Oaa fanaticism. Heck, Nicky Lopez, I compared it earlier in this article with unflattering comparisons. But Hoerner just kept working hard. He is not an outlier. He is very good every year, no doubt. This is an amazing achievement in itself.
Here’s another way of thinking: As I’ve already mentioned, since the beginning of 2022, 21 players have been more offensive than Hoerner. Hoerner hasn’t held a five-win season yet, but only three of 21 failed to propose one six Win season. Players on the Point Ranking are usually huge stars with MVP desires. Hoerner never got an MVP vote. Heck, he never even played on the All-Star team.
When the Cubs compete in the playoffs this October, promotional venues may focus on Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. Why don’t they? Those guys are great, and each of them turns around in a spectacular season. Hoerner won’t get the highest billing; he won’t even rank second in the election. But he is one of the best players in baseball games year after year and always in the same way. So, this is for Nico Hoerner – you don’t know the stars you can’t see.
