This week’s MLBTR mailbag looks Ryan Helsleyvalue, potential upgrades to Giants, some Ranger trade candidates, winemaker infield, Mackenzie GoreBreakthrough and why he is a difficult trade candidate to imagine, the Bears’ bench, Padres’ outfield and more!
Let’s dive in!
Sam asked…
Given Hullsley’s performance decline this year, is the Cardinal gaining more future value/outlook by trading or offering Qo? This question assumes that the decision is made entirely to improve the farm system, rather than any consideration for this year’s team or the 25th playoffs.
This is important because I don’t believe in the Cardinals’ trade Hullsley at all because they almost all beat the preseason expectations (I included 1000%). But, from a purely view of future value, a more cautious move to obtain future value is to trade him by July 31. Holding him is more hypothetical than you listed in this question. It assumes Hullsley will stay healthy and he will be good enough to be worthy of making a qualified offer at the end of the season. None of them are given.
Furthermore, even if he refuses the eligible offer, he cannot determine whether he will sign a contract worth 50mm or more. This is the threshold required to get a compensation draft after the first round of the draft. If Hullsley signs below 50mm, then the compensation will appear between B’s competition balance B and the third round, followed by about 40 picks.
If Hullsley is healthy and pitching well, he can land such a 50mm+, but we can’t think he gets it. In the past, rescuers turned down Qo, seeking a lot of paydays and hovering in free agents because their initial demands were too high and because the team had exhausted off-season budget when the asking price fell, they turned down a lot of paydays and hovering. Cardinals fans should be very familiar with this phenomenon. That’s it Greg Holland Landed in St. Louis in 2018.
So there are many presumptions just to get to the point where the Cardinal chose with Hullsley’s campaign draft pick in the 31-35 range – and then there is the question of actually drafting the right players there. There are obvious greater benefits to adding Pick’s slot value to the team’s 2026 budget, but the best way to maximize that value is to get high-quality prospects there. Let’s latest history of players selected in Qo pay draft after the first round:
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