The Cubs won a playoff series for the first time in eight years. With a clean book after 2026, will they make a big rotation this winter?
guarantee contract
option decision
- Shota ImagaSP: Three years, 57.75MM club options. If declined, Imonaga has a player option for 2026 worth $15.25MM. If Imonaga exercises that right, he will have another $15.25MM player option in 2027 if the Cubs don’t exercise the $42.5MM club option for 2027-28.
- Andrew KitteridgeRP: $9MM club option, $1MM buyout
- Colin RaySP/RP: $6MM club option, $750K buyout
- Justin Turner1B/DH: $10MM reciprocal option, $2MM buyout
Arbitration-eligible players (service time in brackets; salary projections courtesy of Matt Swartz)
free agent
The Cubs are coming off a breakout season this year with a 92-win season, their best mark since 2018. They made the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won a playoff game and series for the first time since 2017. After the Cubs lost Game 5 of the Division Series to the Brewers with “bullpen game” pitching, fans were left wondering if the team could go far if healthy. Cade Horton and/or Justin Steele.
Let’s start this offseason outlook by evaluating the complex selection of pitchers the Cubs choose to avoid in Game 5, Shota Imaga. Imonaga, 32, had exciting success as an MLB rookie last year. He made the All-Star team and earned Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes while posting a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings.
After eight games this year, Imaga strained his left hamstring and missed 53 days. Imonaga’s control remains excellent this season, but his average fastball velocity has dropped below 91 mph and his strikeout rate is below league average. Among starters who have played at least 100 innings, Imonaga’s ground ball rate of 29.2% is the lowest in baseball, and his 1.93 HR/9 rate ranks second-to-last.
Imonaga’s ERA is still 3.73, but it’s fair to say he’s showing off the skills of perhaps a 4.20 pitcher. Even if the Cubs can look to Imamaga going forward and posting a 4-plus ERA in 150 innings, it’s worth the rotation. The question is whether the Cubs will sign such a pitcher to a three-year, $57.75MM contract before his age-32 season with a commitment in early November.
A good comparison might be Dallas KocherSigned a three-year, $55.5MM contract with the White Sox six years ago. While Keuchel is a ground-heavy pitcher, he is also a soft-throwing lefty heading into his age-32 season. The contract did not go well.
There are some soft factors to consider here, such as the Cubs’ recruiting efforts with other Japanese players and Imamaga’s popularity among fans last year. MLBTR writers have debated Imonaga’s complicated selection situation, and here are our best guesses:
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