On Thursday night, the deafening quiet of the trade market in July was interrupted, announcing the Seattle Mariners’ acquisition of first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Naylor offers this year’s snakes more than respectable crimes, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs, suitable for 123 WRC+ and 1.4 wars. The return to the desert was two minor league pitchers, left-handed Brandyn Garcia and Righty Ashton Izzi.
While the Rattlesnakes were generally disappointed in 2025, there were few malfunctions to be placed at Nail’s feet. The team is expected to play in 2025, but lost Christian Walker to the Astros in free agency, so hope Naylor can fill a year’s hole before breaking into the open market in person. He will never be an elite defender like Walker, but expects that he will at least offer a similar offensive level. Naylor may be worse than his career-high 31 home runs in 2024, but he has been compensated by adding nearly 50 points to a batting average, meaning his 123 WRC+ is actually slightly higher than last season’s 119 points.
If the season ends today, the Mariners will be the second time AL wildcard, and the five-game separation between them and the leading Astros is not an insurmountable distance. Houston seems to have a smaller advantage in Al West when you consider how many lineups are currently injured. The injured quartets are Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers, who will represent a large part of the offensive value of any team. First base is a special source of trouble for M this year, with their first baseman ranked third in baseball and ranked 0.4 wars. The original plan was to get Luke Raley to start the game’s Lions share, mainly against the rights, with the stuffing around him to take care of the South Claw. However, Mitch Haniger and Victor Robles were injured by scarce corner outfield and DH depth in Seattle and pushed Raley to the right. As a result, the team was forced to provide Rowdy Tellez with a lot of playing time. He released an executable .249 pedestal percentage with the sailors before he gave up on him in June.
Naylor is not a superstar, so naturally, his acquisition has not greatly changed the face of the Al West race. After defeating Angels last night, Zips gave the Mariners a 76% chance to make the playoffs and a 24% chance to win the division. Without transactions, these figures will be 72% and 21%.
So, how much does it cost to their new first baseman? Neither Garcia nor Izzi burned down the prospect list, but then Naylor was a free agent after the season, making the deal purely short-term rental. The 25-year-old Garcia has made his major league debut and since I don’t believe the Diamondbacks will have a full rebuild, it’s very attractive to the compensation draft pick, and if they make it to Naylor at Naylor, he’ll sign elsewhere in the offseason. Garcia is a fierce left-handed cricketer, with three-quarters of delivery predictable and inducing a lot of ground. My colleague Eric Longenhagen gave him over 40 FVs when he published Seattle’s top prospects last month.
Zips’ predictions regard Garcia as a solid, although unstriking, but at least some rise in the middle arm.
ZIPS Projection – Brandyn Garcia
| Year | w | l | era | g | GS | IP | h | Um | human Resources | BB | so | ERA+ | war |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 3 | 4.22 | 57 | 0 | 53.3 | 48 | 25 | 5 | twenty two | 45 | 98 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 3 | 3 | 4.10 | 56 | 0 | 52.7 | 47 | twenty four | 5 | twenty one | 45 | 101 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 3 | 2 | 4.08 | 55 | 0 | 53.0 | 46 | twenty four | 4 | twenty one | 45 | 102 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 3 | 2 | 3.92 | 46 | 0 | 43.7 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 37 | 106 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 2 | 2 | 4.06 | 40 | 0 | 37.7 | 33 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 32 | 102 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 2 | 1 | 4.06 | 33 | 0 | 31.0 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 102 | 0.1 |
ZIPS 2026% – Brandyn Garcia
| Percentiles | ERA+ | era | war |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 128 | 3.23 | 0.7 |
| 90% | 122 | 3.40 | 0.6 |
| 80% | 114 | 3.65 | 0.4 |
| 70% | 107 | 3.88 | 0.2 |
| 60% | 102 | 4.06 | 0.2 |
| 50% | 98 | 4.22 | 0.0 |
| 40% | 93 | 4.43 | -0.1 |
| 30% | 90 | 4.59 | -0.2 |
| 20% | 86 | 4.83 | -0.3 |
| 10% | 77 | 5.36 | -0.6 |
| 5% | 71 | 5.82 | -0.9 |
As a 21-year-old High-A Ball, Ashton Izzi has to do more than Garcia, but even with absolute good or bad, the upper right corner shows enough upside room to Eric give him more than 40 FVs. According to Eric, Izzi has a four-hole with a distance of 94 mph and solid movement. His fastball received an extension of “close to elite” but did not cause much trend. Eric said Izzi also has an effective average of two shoes, as well as a sweeper and cutter. The sweeper was a big swinging stadium for him. His changes are mediocre, and Eric is worried that Izzi will work hard to develop good weapons against left-handed. Overall, according to Eric, Izzi could be the starter if he could clear his own development barriers.
Overall, I think getting two real prospects, one that can immediately impact the father club is an absolutely fair reward for Naylor. The Mariners have only two playoff wins over the past two decades, and it’s time to go all out. Their offense is better this season than in the past few years, but they still need to fill their holes at first base, and Naylor represents an upgrade to the previous one.
