Are you a fan of the playoff team? Are you because their bullpen has been unable to tear off their hair in the past few weeks? Is this starting to become creepy? Does it feel like I’m staring directly at your soul? Don’t worry. I’m just playing odds. Here is a table showing bullpen performances over the past 14 days, but only for 13 teams with at least 12% chance of making the playoffs. I highlighted the team’s ranking in the second half of the league in this range:
The last 14 days of the bullpen
| team | Era Level | era | FIP level | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Socks | 5 | 3.40 | 7 | 3.37 |
| sailor | 12 | 4.08 | 1 | 2.79 |
| Dodgers | 13 | 4.11 | 10 | 3.51 |
| astronaut | 14 | 4.27 | 15 | 3.98 |
| Philadelphia | 15 | 4.29 | 14 | 3.88 |
| tiger | 16 | 4.34 | 25 | 5.29 |
| Forest Ranger | 17 | 4.46 | 5 | 3.28 |
| Winemaker | 18 | 4.67 | 6 | 3.29 |
| Priest | 20 | 4.70 | twenty two | 4.63 |
| metropolis | twenty one | 5.03 | 13 | 3.64 |
| Yankees | twenty three | 5.23 | 2 | 2.93 |
| Cub | 25 | 5.26 | 17 | 4.21 |
| Blue Bird | 26 | 5.28 | 19 | 4.29 |
The fifth place has the Red Sox, which looks solid, with an ERA of 3.40. But, well, that’s not an encouraging signal for all these playoff teams. That’s a lot of yellow. Boston is the only team in the top 10; no one else has a bullpen era below 4.00. Only five of these teams were in the first half of the league. The Mets, Yankees, Cubs and Blue Jays all have over 5.00.
The winemakers tied for the league lead with the twins over the past two weeks. There are four Bluebirds and Phillies respectively. As a reminder: The winemakers have the best record in baseball, while the Blue Jays and Phillies finished second. Suddenly, none of them could turn off the game to save lives.
Again, I need to deny any supernatural effects here. I don’t think there is a supernatural reason that it seems that every good baseball team’s bullpen is in trouble. This is mainly a coincidence. If we look at FIP, things will be more reasonable. Six of our 13 teams were in the top 10, and only four were in the second half of the league. That’s almost what you’d expect. Most excellent teams have strong bullpens. This is the beginning of a small period of time, a small sample of the intra-site sample and a volatile cohort. Over the past two weeks, the winemaker’s bullpen has been excellent on the 3.29 FIP, but anyway, it’s five that exploded. Something happened.
I’ll break down four teams at the bottom of the table, and several teams that have found noteworthy due to injuries, or because I’m worried about them making the playoffs, but that’s mostly what I want to tell you. Now, all the bullpens seem to be exploding. Very strange. If you tear your hair apart because we were in September and your bullpen couldn’t stay ahead of the way, relax. First, there may be enough time to correct the boat. Second, no matter who you face in the playoffs, you can’t keep the lead right now, unless it’s the Red Sox (who gave up eight games last night in the bullpen game, presumably because that’s what all the cool kids are doing).
metropolis
The Mets now lead the league among six rescuers in Illinois: Reed Garrett, Drew Smith, Danny Young, AJ Minter, Max Kranick and Dedniel Núñez. Smith, Mint, Cranick and Garrett all pitched before they were injured. Those are four good reliefists, only Garrett has a chance to return this season. That’s how the Mets finally claimed Wander Suero, who has thrown only 6 1/3 of the Big League innings in the past two seasons, which was yesterday’s Braves’ abandonment. Suero has 1.35 ERA and 2.63 FIP in Triple-A Gwinnett’s 46 2/3 innings, and he will have a chance to prove that this is not Fluke. The Mets called him less than half an hour ago to ride the struggling Kodai Senga, who was chosen as Syracuse.
Beyond that, Ryan Helsley has been invalid since the deadline deal brought to New York by St. Louis. His ERA is 3.00 ERA and 3.56 FIP as the Cardinal, his ERA is 11.45 and the Mets has a FIP of 6.50. Hullsley said last week that he believes he has been tilting the court. Fortunately, he will solve this problem. If he does, and Garrett returns well, they will join Tyler Rogers, left-handed Brooks Raley and Gregory Soto, as well as Edwin Díaz at close range, who are all doing well this season. The Mets can still integrate a solid bullpen into the playoffs.
Dodgers
The Dodgers rescuers ranked third in the Grand Slam this season with the 5.2 War, but that was mainly because they were asked to throw 570 1/3 innings, which is the most baseball. Currently, Rosterresource says they tied with the winemakers of five injured rescuers, one of whom is from the Mets. They lost Evan Phillips to Tommy John’s surgery in May, and the deadline acquisition of Brock Stewart was almost immediately after the deal, while Alex Vesia tilted it tightly on August 21. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates are the work of loads, losing a lot of time besides a big next move, but the Dodgers are still one of the senior teams on the roster. After a lack of forearm tightness earlier this season, Blake Treinen was allowed only two runs in his last 12 games, with his era dropping to 3.00.
Yankees
The headlines here are Devin Williams’ 5.60 ERA this season, but as Michael Baumann wrote earlier today, the base numbers are not bad. They are even pretty good. The Yankees lost Jake Cousins in June for Tommy John’s surgery, while Jonathan Loáisiga suffered flexion in August due to a flexor strain. Brent Headrick also was at Illinois State after driving the line from the pitching arm. The Yankees also suffered from sensation from Paul Blackburn and Yerry de Los Santos. They almost immediately pulled the deadline acquisition of Jake Bird to the deadline. He had 4.73 ERA and 3.50 FIP in Colorado before the deadline, but he played in just three games, allowed six runs in two innings before being selected as Triple-A, where he continued to struggle. Luke Weaver was recently bitten by the Home Run Bug, with four games in his last seven games at 5.14. However, he has a lower average export speed during this time than the rest of the season, and he runs at 2.53 xfip. It seems more like doom than anything.
Fernando Cruz and David Bednar have been on the show, Tim Hill is still a ground ball machine, and Camilo Doval has not allowed to run in the last five games. The Yankees Bullpen has an XFIP of 3.93 throughout the season, ranking second in baseball. Over the past two weeks, despite the ugly times, they still have the second best FIP. It’s hard to imagine they’re not going to turn things around without Williams and the Weaver (the fatal W’s), but it’s not necessarily a disastrous “pen”.
Cub
According to most metrics, the Bear Bullpen is in the middle of the Pack this year. Its 3.05 XFIP is the third best in baseball in the past two weeks. So, why are the times and FIP so ugly? That’s the danger of playing on the Wrigley Field against home runs in August. During that time, 21.1% of their fly balls have already made home runs, second only to the Rockies (coincidentally, they recently spent three series in Colorado). Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers have performed well in the season but have given up several home runs in recent weeks, and the mistakes are amplified as the Cubs rely on their bullpen, not any other team. Nothing happened in the last two weeks, which changed my view of this Relief Legion.
Philadelphia
The bullpen in Philadelphia has been a problem all year long. Free agent signings Joe Ross and Jordan Romano didn’t work out at all, with a total of -0.5 wars in 86 appearances and 93 2/3 innings. The good news is that the bullpen looks different now. The Phillies released Rose and Romano hits IL with inflammation from his middle finger. They signed David Robertson in July at the free agent agency, sold to Jhoan Duran before the deadline, and won star Lefty José Alvarado from an 80-game PED suspension on August 20. Along with Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering and Tanner Banks, the Phillies should have a valid, even if the shallow bullpen goes into October. With Zack Wheeler out and Aaron Nola struggled, rotation could be a bigger problem.
Blue Bird
How much time do you have? The Blue Jays’ worst bullpen in baseball game in 2024, and if nothing else, they look very good to rebound. Jordan Romano they did not greet. They signed the excellent Jeff Hoffman, replaced Nick Sandlin, brought back Yimi García and Ryan Yarbrough, and took the flyer on the arms of Amir Garrett, Jacob Barnes and Richard Lovelady. They rebounded. They rank in the middle of the Times and FIP and ranked seventh in XFIP. But lately, they can’t seem to disappear.
They released Yarbrough before the season. The flyers they brought weren’t working out yet, nor were there any insider guys like Chad Green, Zach Pop and Erik Swanson. They lost their main work, with Sandlin and Garcia both out this season. Other injuries forced Easton Lucas and Eric Lauer to start roles, and they were significantly worse. Hoffman performed three ugly shows in the last week of August, even though he looked much better the past week. Despite the base figures being good, the deadline acquisition Louis Varland has a blue Jay with 6.91 ERA on 15 appearances.
If Hoffman can make things straight, then if Valan’s luck can turn around, if Lucas and Raul can get back into the bullpen, if the arms that bring them here – Jarril Rodriguez, Brenden Little, Braden Fisher – can keep doing what they’re doing, then the Blue Jays could make the playoffs. But that’s a lot of IFS.
