The Eastern League of Nations is ruling homesteads. The day entering the trade deadline, the Mets found themselves halfway through the Phillies’ game, but our playoff odds gave Philadelphia an edge 51-49 when winning the division. Both teams have spent two weeks strengthening the bullpen over the past two weeks. The 31-year-old Helsley was rented for his final year of arbitration, and the Mets sent out the prospect of Cardinals for his service Jesus Baez, Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt. The Mets are now completely reshaping the back end of their bullpen after a deal with Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers last week. Jon Heyman New York Post Anthony Dicomo of MLB.com is the first to report different parts of the transaction.
Before we start the trade, let’s take a moment to marvel at the speed of the Mets and Phillies’ relief regiments. I should first attribute it to the prolific Michael Baumann, who wrote The Soto Deal, The Rogers Deal and The Duran Deal. Last week, I also wrote about the signing of David Robertson of the Philadelphia. Put all that together, and the Mets and Phillies have added the players who rank ninth, 12th, 37th, 54th, and 72nd in saver WAR since the start of 2024. Impressively, Robertson comes in at 37th even though he hasn’t pitched in the big leagues yet this season, because his 1.9 WAR ranked ninth among all relievers last year. This measuring stick also underestimates Rogers, who is 54th, because our war version relies on FIP, and the submarine develops the habit of defeating him through the mysterious art of ground balls. When using RA9-WAR, Rogers jumped to 10th place. In other words, we are talking about all baseball and Soto’s four most valuable reliefists, and they are also pretty good.
That’s what your goal is to win the World Series. The Phillies and Mets are paying high prices to give themselves the best chance to lock in late October. The Mets started with a better position as their bullpen currently ranks 11th in baseball with 3.80 ERA and 4.02 XFIP, while the eighth place is ranked 3.70 FIP, and they add more reliefers than Philadelphia. However, the Phillies have now added the best supplements on the market (note: I wrote this before the Mason Miller deal fell), and one of the best and most consistent setters in the game. None of this guarantees that the division will come down to wires, or that these relief forces will actually shut down the opposition in October, but it’s fun to watch them get ready for the championship game.
Deal now! As Anthony Franco pointed out by the Major League Baseball trade rumors, Helsley was paid $8.2 million and left $2.65 million. Since the Mets are in the luxury tax space, they will actually pay him $5.6 million in the next two months. Hullsley may be a candidate for a qualified offer after the season, so if the Mets are like they see, they have at least a chance to try and keep him nearby.
With Edwin Díaz falling into a closer role, Helsley and Rogers should be the ones who turn off the set. After debuting in 2019, Helsley really took off in 2022, running 1.25 ERA and 2.34 FIP on 54 appearances and taking over the St. Louis close-range role in July. Last year, Helsley led the baseball with 49 saves, a total representing more than half of the Cardinal’s victory. Although it’s still great, it’s not unfair to say he takes a step back this season. Although FIP, XERA and XFIP both think his era thinks he deserves to get closer to 3.50, he is currently running 3.00 ERA. This is a far cry from the 1.83 ERA, 2.35 FIP and 3.04 Xfip he proposed in the first three seasons.
As for why this happens, Hullsley’s strikeout rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons, from 39% in 2022 to 26% this season. Hullsley has had a home run rate of 2.5% after his ridiculous home run rate on fly balls over the past two seasons. Because he is a remedial man, we’re only talking about four home runs this season. It might have been a random night, but his hardship and barrel rate have also improved. The batsman’s promotion and celebration is less than the trouble he has. The 2.5% home run rate is the same as his 2022 record. The difference is that because he hit a lot of batsmen at the time, some home runs didn’t matter. Dingers are all batsmen, I mean literally. In 2022, Hullsley allowed nine runs. All nine of these runs scored on home runs.
For pitchers who rely on high school seniors, home runs are always a risk. When players are not swaying below them, they will boost them. Hullsley’s fastballs are still averaging 99.3 miles per hour this season, and the East and West Model is still swaying on the slider, throwing nearly half of the time and he throwing curveballs 5% of the time. The problem is location. He has extreme overproduction, with an average of 63 degrees of arm angle. This should make it very interesting when Rogers put seventh and Helsley into eighth. This also means that Hullsley’s quad-autometer is almost purely ascending, with an average induced vertical fracture with only 2.3 inches of arm side fracture. The course like this is best to be on top of the area or above, but he has been working hard to keep the ball there this season.
As a result, Statcast’s running value ranged from 0.7 per 100 courses in 2024 to -2.0 this season. Its gas price rate has dropped, the tough rate has risen, and the WOBA’s speed has risen from .325 to .439.
It’s still a dangerous course, and if Hullsley can better find it and pair it with his unpopular gyro slider, he will immediately recover to be one of the best reliefists in the game. Maybe the Mets think they can help him find his order, or it will return to timely anyway. Maybe they will just tell him to keep throwing Hundos in the heart of the plate and trust his stuff. Even a few inches lower than the pitcher would have hoped, the batsmen didn’t yearn for a 100 mph heater. If Helsley goes all out and it will keep throwing the 3.00 ERA, he will still be very useful for the next few months.
This brings us to the prospect of returning to the Cardinal. Baez is the main attraction here and when the deal comes, he happens to be the base, which means he learns the news when a pinch runner comes to take over him. Eric Longenhagen just wrote about the top prospects of Mets a month ago, when Baez ranked 16th in the system and had a future value of over 40 years old. At least worth noting American Baseball had him ranked all the way up at sixth in the organization, though he was at least somewhat blocked in an organization with young infielders like Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio, along with two other infielders who came in ahead of him on our prospect rankings — Jacob Reimer and Elian Peña — and two 2024 draft picks: Mitch Voit and AJ Ewing. Eric has updated Baez based on the deal, so here is exactly:
Baez is a $275,000 signer in 2022, cut .262/.338/.444 in St. Lucie last year and at St. Lucie, a sensational hip and shoulder athlete who shocks you with his ability to throw himself away and is able to work hard to spin through contact. It’s a special special feature that produces some highlight reels on both sides of the ball, but doesn’t make Baez a great player or prospect himself.
Let’s start with defense and Baz continues to be shortstop here. He has pure arm strength and movement that can work, but is far from the necessary range, his first step is slow enough, and sometimes he also looks like he lacks three bases. In part of the play, Baez is forced to throw out of the low arm slot he seems most comfortable, but he is not that consistent when he has to climb a baseball to swing for a long distance. This may make him the best long-term position second base, with a lot of free throws inside your body.
On the offensive end, Baez immediately had the power on the field thanks to his lubricating hips, and he posted about average contact and power metrics under the hood. Even if the foot could pull long ago, he had strength because he could reach his hand back and spin well through contact. The shaky Jenga neighborhood in Baez’s profile is his board discipline, which gives his profile the Maikel Franco flavor that I can’t completely get rid of my mouth. He was more patient in the early years than he did in the past seasons, but his strikes were still too much. Baez cut off leg kicks with two strikes, which could better ruin tough courts and wear out long shots, but that limited his pop sound. At the time of trading, he had a trivial .490 OPS, and went on strike twice. It’s a talented player who appears to be like a regular everyday player of the future, but he has some problems (defensive, strike zone judgment) that forces him to surround him into a second division or Bat-first utility FV layer.
Dohm and Elissalt are the right-hand pitching prospects for graduating from college in 2024, and they enter the end of the Mets list with a future value of over 35. The Mets selected the 23-year-old DOHM from Mississippi State in the third round of 2024, and he has achieved good results among professionals. He looked steady this season, hitting nearly 30% of the batsmen he encountered in Low-A games and 11 games in High-A. In the last 63 innings, he has a total of 2.87 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Here is an article about him written last month:
Dohm moved from Ball State to Mississippi, from bullpen to rotation and started a hot start in the 2024 season before he was eliminated with an elbow injury. His mid-90s fastball has uphill angles and riding, which helps it miss the bat on the belt, and Dohm directs his slider (which isn’t particularly annoying). He has exploded his career in 2025 and is more of a development project than a typical SEC department. He casts the fastball gravity.
The Mets took Elissalt at the 2024 third Rising Stars Southeast draft. He has just moved from Low-A to High-A and has a total of 3.04 ERA and 3.46 XFIP in 20 appearances and 56 1/3 innings. So far, he has also hit about 29% of the batsmen. Elissalt is now accessible to 98, but Matt Eddy and Geoff Pontes American Baseball It has been pointed out that he struggles to direct and maintain a steady pitch shape. Here is an article about him written last month:
Elissalt went to high school in Miami but somehow participated in his freshman season at Philly in La Salle. It was his only one because he then moved it to Southwest Florida before being selected and then to Nova. Elissalt has experienced a quarter-bump on his fastball while his main damage ball eight-bump bumps. Now he averages 95 miles per hour and releases from the low that creates flat angles on the fastball with mediocre movements. Elissalt’s College Curveball was cancelled, supporting a tougher slider with length and bite on it. If Elissalt can command the fastball to where it thrives, it is a mix of intermediate reliefers.
Overall, that’s exactly the kind of deal we expect to see on the deadline. The Cardinal would not go anywhere without Hullsley. He is a pure rent and now has the opportunity to act as a key piece in the playoffs. The Mets have built their own farm system so much that they have enough players that could one day become a good infielder every day, and they have the ability to lose one. Dohm and Elissalt have a lot of developments on college weapons at the age of 23, and they may get the opportunity to rebuild the Cardinal rather than the Mets who intend to build the dynasty.
