Kyle Tucker needs to learn how to better manage expectations. He did a good job on paper: .261/.374/.447 and 18 home runs. His WRC+ had 131 times, walking more than strikeouts, while 27 stolen bases made 27 attempts. His war was 3.9, one tenth behind Kyle Schwarber, who was MVP chat, one tenth ahead of Juan Soto.
But now, the Cubs star is indeed experiencing it, and no one is happy.
Tucker has 25-25 in the last seven games, compared to just 54 in August. He hasn’t hit a home run in 31 days, and most incredibly his last extra hit rate was in July. Tucker is doing what you expect. He didn’t run the ground ball at first base on Sunday, and on Monday he knocked his helmet into the ground in frustration to end his eighth inning 7-0 loss to Milwaukee. Both events attracted boos from Wrigley fans.
After Monday’s game, Cubs manager Craig Counsell thought it was enough. Instead of leaving the best player there, he kept leaning his head against the wall, he sat down at Tucker for the next few days. I think Counsell’s direct quote summarizes the situation: “[H]E is trying. Just no clicks. Of course, we will have to take a step back and then give him a few days to reset him. ”
If your Kyle Tucker fails, turn him off and turn him on again.
This makes sense, for three reasons. First, the bears are almost all locked in the wildcard position. After Monday’s game, they had a 92.5% chance to be a wildcard team, a 4.2% chance to win the division and a total loss of 3.3% chance to playoffs. There is little benefit to sprinting to the finish line in the final six weeks of the season, giving struggling players a chance to hold their breath and barely lose.
Secondly, I admit it is not scientific, but the sweet Jesus looks like Tucker needs a vacation. That’s not to say he could come back from the respirator and behave worse.
Third, perhaps most importantly, the fabulous finger injury. On June 1, Tucker shortened the slide for the second time during his two failed base attempts this year, scraped his nose on the infield dirt and rolled awkwardly with his right hand. He clogged the game with his right finger, the X-ray returned to negative form, and Tucker has refused to use the excuse of injury since then.
It’s a weird injury, the equivalent of a rocket blowing up with tens of millions of dollars in satellites as someone tightens the bolts that don’t have a five-cent washing machine. Tucker wore an oven glove-style sliding glove, his left hand was actually led by him – his right hand was far from the base! And he just said so badly that he ended up landing awkwardly and clogging his fingers. This is a small matter, man.
If Counsell was going to sit Tucker in multiple games anyway, I wouldn’t mind just reaching it to 10 days of IL job so they wouldn’t play men while Tucker holds his hand.
Tucker said the finger should not be blamed for his struggles, and although I admire the situation where he is unwilling to make excuses, I feel obliged to mention this: When Tucker left the game on June 1, he hit .284/.394/.524. Since then, he hit .236/.352/.368. Jordan Bastian of MLB.com pointed out in the work I linked above that Tucker’s ground ball speed has crossed the roof since his injury, while his bat speed plummeted.
Injury in one’s proactive hands is enough to distract the office worker, not to mention a person who deals with a large wooden club on a long day. Ergo Propter HOC Any; I found that this kind of damage actually affects Tucker in some way very reasonable. Bill James once described the end of Smokey Joe Wood’s pitching career as “a fracture of another part of his body, spreading on his arm.” You will never know the way in which protecting an injured limb may appear elsewhere during exercise.
Whether due to finger injury, general fatigue, stress or other reasons, Tucker’s average bat speed dropped from 72.4 mph (which is comparable to Eugenio Suárez) to 71.0 mph (which is comparable to Daniel Schneemann). The batsman can be effective and even hit a lot of power, hitting a ball speed in the 71 mph range, but Tucker doesn’t.
Tucker has an ISO of .132 and strikeout rate of 17.0% since June 4. And his contact quality figures don’t seem to belong to the same guy.
Kyle Tucker before and after June 1st
| period | Xwobacon | hardhit% | Bucket/bbe% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before injury | .426 | 46.9 | 13.3 |
| After damage | .368 | 33.9 | 7.9 |
Source: Baseball Savant
You can see evidence that he is too compensated elsewhere in every month’s split. In August this year, Tucker released his highest monthly strikeout rate since August 2020, and even before that, June was his highest strikeout rate since August 2021. It’s also the first month since Tucker failed to release double-digit walking rates (at least so far) since May 2023.
Tucker also hit 58.5% in August, the highest single month of his entire career. Although the bat speed has slowed down. My assumption is that he can feel himself decreasing his strength and/or bat speed ticking and is trying to get compensation in front of the ball. The result is one of the most fly batsmen in the league is a 2.10 GB/FB ratio.
For the first time since August 2023, Tucker hit more ground balls than fly balls in a month, with the first time in his career besides a sample of six games in July 2020, the ratio has exceeded two: one.
After the past few paragraphs detailing the past two and a half months of detailing Tucker’s failures, it’s worth reiterating that despite the power outages and occasional frustration, Tucker has released .352 OBP in the past 62 games. If he did nothing, he was still a significant offensive contributor based on that number.
However, the Cubs can’t afford this goal because of how high Tucker’s ceiling is. They paid a huge price for a year-long run with the free agent, which is perfect. The shorthand for “Five Tools Player” is a bit old because while it lists things that players should do well in the position, they all put them on an equal basis when that’s not the case. Like, no one thinks Judge Aaron is an under-average runner, right?
The way I describe Tucker is that he is a very rare player and does not need to compromise. He brings speed and good corner kick outfield defense without compromising power. He hit the force without hitting too much. He strikes off a low rate and still walks a ton. For almost every other star player in the league, there is a “yes, but”. At least, when he competes.
Therefore, the bear that Tucker snatched from this depression is crucial. The divisional game has disappeared, and honestly, the Cubs can do nothing about it. From July 6 to August 18, the last day on Tucker’s bench, the winemakers were 3-1 against the Cubs and 27-4 against everyone else. Over the past two months, Tucker could have jumped off the tall building in a single inning, while Milwaukee still locked the NL center.
The goal has now changed: sort out the position of that wildcard and rock the first round of the NBA playoffs, no matter the opponent. In the playoffs, a Tucker who can walk and hit weak ground is not that useful. A Tucker who can’t hit the ball can carry a lineup. Whatever it is needed, the bear must bring the second guy back.
