Kyle Schwarber dominates the heart of the plate

One thing I overlooked a few weeks ago when I wrote about Kyle Schwarber who should be the first player in baseball history to get his own Bob Blackhead doll, but his own Bob Helmet doll. Schwarber has performed well this season. He has achieved the best start of his entire career. Schwarber is currently running 164 WRC+, which makes him the eighth qualified batsman in baseball. He has 19 home runs and 16% walking rates in the top five. That excellent spring was even more impressive considering Schwarber was a slow starter in relative terms. He had a career of 110 WRC+ in March and April, then scored 115 points in May and then scored 145 points in June. This season, he just started to be very hot and got hotter. Here is a table showing his WOBA throughout his career in March and April:

Schwarber had many of these popular winning streaks before, but never led a season. Moreover, his approach is unique. Joey Gallo tries to reinvent himself as a pitcher, and Schwarber is alone as a practitioner of three of the most important real results in the game, but he is trying to give up one of them. His current strikeout rate is 24.4% compared to last season, which will represent his career lowest rate and a drop of more than 4 percentage points. In addition to reducing his strikeout rate, Schwarber also caused more damage than ever when serving the ball. His .499 Wobacon and .531 Xwobacon are the best marks of his entire career.

Let’s start with Schwarber’s strikeout rate, and we’ll contact quality later:

Schwarber’s actions are not unprecedented, whether it’s his strikeout rate or overall output. Still, he stretched for so long for the last time, and he beats so small we have been in different decades. And, when he rarely hits him, he doesn’t hit that well.

These figures suggest some obvious reasons why Schwarber might be much less. First, 40% of the courts he saw were located on the edge of the strike zone. Schwarber has always had a low rate, but it was the lowest in his career, accounting for 90% of qualified players. Maybe it’s just that randomness will return to some mean people. But, for now, this may make Schwarber’s swing decision easier.

Intent is obviously part of it. Schwarber swings on his first court just 20.4% of the time, the lowest tertile of his career. He has always been one of the most patient batsmen in the game, but it’s a very obvious sign that he’s either trying to see more of the courts or is looking for something very specific.

Schwarber’s overall swing rate dropped, and his 19.4% chase rate was the lowest in his career than a percentage point. Putting these together, his CSW rate (that’s the percentage of courts called or swing strikes) hits exactly 29.4% of his career average, with additional strikes replacing the Whiffs’ drop. However, 42.9% of the stadiums Schwarber saw were generally on strike, accounting for 64.5% of his swing. These are the lowest marks of his career, which is because he ended up 33.6% of the court that swung with a foul ball.

This makes us connected with quality, which is where things get really interesting. Schwarber was more patient, especially on the first court. He made more contact overall, and more contact was playing the ball, not foul ball.

Last year, I did some research on foul balls, and it was one of my gains: “People with big swings and very few whip rates hit foul balls. When they missed, they missed big players. Players with great bat control also had high average hits and fouls more balls. However, Statcast’s new bat tracking data says Schwarber is heading in the opposite direction.

Schwarber’s average and 90-level export speeds were almost exactly the same as last season, but his tough rate improved by nearly 4 percentage points. To show you what that means, I hit all the balls Schwarber hits the past four seasons and hits at 4 mph. This is not a perfect distribution, but I think it’s obvious:

Schwarber’s high-end power hasn’t changed at all, but when he’s able to hit the ball hard, it’s really hard for him to hit. His batting was about 100 mph, with less than 95 balls. This coincides with the subtle changes in his bat tracking data. Schwarber has had nearly the same swing and offensive angles over the past three seasons. However, this season, he makes the ball shorter and slower swings:

It sounds like Schwarber is pulling his swing, but I remind you that many bat speed metrics are also time and position indicators. Since your bats accelerate during the swing and you need to meet further on the court ahead, lower bat speeds and shorter swings may mean you will encounter less internal courses in deeper situations. Schwarber actually hit the ball a little bit ahead, but he focused on another part of the area.

The pitcher always attacks Schwarber, who prefers to swing on those courts this season than to swing on overhead fastballs. The following heat map shows Schwarber’s swing ratio, and it’s easy to see how the red area has been moved away and moved down:

Looking at this chart, it was obvious that Schwarber was not really soft. Statcast data shows he will set it closer to the plate this season, and the decline in bat speed is mainly due to the stadium he swings. This also explains why Schwarber encountered the ball in the farther front and pulled it, even if he swung on a court farther away. Higher courts, especially high pitches and internal courts, are difficult to get around. There are fewer swings among them, and your contact points may move forward even if the pitch is slightly further and further outside. And, because Schwarber sets it closer to the plate, these pitches are relatively far away from before. This is a subtle transition, but visible. The two white and green dots are Schwarber’s Mass Center, his average intercept point:

I found another very interesting factor. Finish Baseball prospectusTimothy Jackson wrote some compelling quotes in which Schwarber described the thought process behind his swing decision. “I think the biggest thing is not trying to play,” he said. “You tried to hit them wrong.” Knowing this, look at the picture below. It shows Schwarber’s year-on-year performance, just at the core of the sector.

Schwarber is a completely different player against the stadium in the center of the region. As far as STATCAST runs value is concerned, even though we only have one-third of the entire season, he is already more valuable than anyone in the previous season. He is worth 4.9 times, only trailing Judge Aaron (9.7) and shohei ohtani (5.0) per 100 courts. Schwarber is actually one of the best batsmen in baseball, with just two years of net negatives.

He suddenly did a great job when the ball pitched the heart of the plate? His 20% WHIFF rate is nearly the same as last year, so it is not. In fact, he contributed more than last year, resulting in more strikes, which hurt his running value. Not that he is waiting for the fastball. In fact, he swayed slightly less about them. The thing he did right was to hit Begizs. His 98.5 mph exit speed is the highest in his career, and his 79.5% hard speed is the highest ever in the Statcast era. There has been no better player in the plate than Kyle Schwarber has been able to hit the ball this season.

I don’t have a perfect theory to associate these three threads together. Schwarber became more selective, perhaps because he saw fewer courses on the edge of the plate, and when he had to make tough decisions. He also shifted his attention, with fewer fastballs in the upper third of the area. This method is obviously working. He leveled the ball flush more than ever and made closer contact. But I’m really not sure if it will be in the long run. Maybe Schwarber saw the ball well now, which helped with his swing decision and strength. The edge rate thing may be a flu worm that won’t last. Maybe the pitchers will change their entry when they see his lowered swing on the high and interior courts. Schwarber once reached a base once and hit six times in his last three games. Every hot streak ends at the end, and if Schwarber reaches that now, I’d be curious about what’s going to happen next.