Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions announced overnight that they will release Takahashi Yukina This offseason for MLB clubs. The news isn’t necessarily shocking, as there were reports in August that the Lions might move on to Takahashi this winter.
Takahashi, who turned 29 in February, made 24 appearances for the Lions last season and had a 3.04 ERA. However, he struck out just 14.3% of his opponents in 148 innings and made just 15 starts in his 2024 season at the NPB’s highest level. He posted a 3.87 ERA in 81 1/3 innings last year and his velocity was below previous career standards. Takahashi’s numbers in a platform season aren’t that different from those of a lefty Shinnosuke Ogasawara He had a 3.12 ERA in 24 starts last season and a 13.6% strikeout rate in his final season in the NPB before receiving two years of $3.5MM guaranteed with the Nationals this offseason.
Ogasawara spent most of the season at the Triple-A level but struggled in the major leagues, posting a 6.98 ERA in 38 2/3 innings. While Ogasawara isn’t currently excelling in the major leagues, that doesn’t necessarily mean Takahashi will follow in his footsteps. After all, Takahashi did enjoy back-to-back dominant seasons with the Lions in 2022 and ’23. He posted a combined 2.20 ERA in those years while striking out batters at a higher rate, though those improved numbers also hit 19.2% in 2023.
It’s not unheard of for NPB players to see their strikeout rates go up when they get to the major leagues because the majors aren’t as contact-focused as NPB. Yoshinobu YamamotoFor example, he struck out 26.6 percent of his opponents in his final season in the NPB and has a 29.1 percent career strikeout rate in the majors to date. Having said that, there are only 11 qualified starters in the majors this year, and their batting average is less than 20%. Among them, only Michael Wacha and Zach Little ERA below 4.00.
That reality makes Takahashi more of a back-end starter or swingman at the major league level, and while it’s possible there’s an organization that thinks they can help him take a step forward, he’ll likely be relegated to a relatively small multi-year deal, or maybe even a non-guaranteed deal. Even though the price may be lower, his process to the major leagues is the same as any other NPB pitcher who hasn’t yet hit free agency. Once he’s officially named a member of the MLB club (which likely won’t happen until later this month or early December), he’ll have 45 days to seal a deal in the major leagues.
If no deal is reached, he will remain in Japan and will not be eligible to play again until next offseason. If Takahashi does reach a deal, the acquiring club would have to pay the Lions a release fee based on the size of Takahashi’s contract. For contracts worth $25MM or less, this means the fee is equal to 20% of the total margin. Meanwhile, a minor league contract will allow the Lions to recoup 25% of the value of Takahashi’s signing bonus, plus additional fees if Takahashi is added to a new club’s MLB roster.
