It is an understatement to say that the past two or more years have not disappeared in the same way as Sandy Alcantara has. Winning the NL Cy Young Award in 2022, his figures dropped the following season and he was shut down by pressure from flexors in September, which required Tommy John surgery in October. He returned intact with his own speed and movement this spring, but his performance from the start of the season was tough. He ended with 8.31 ERA. The buzz about the Marlins trading Alcantara, which seems to be the result of a franchise run like a glorious farm branch in other areas of baseball, has temporarily disappeared. Sure, the situation of the ace has gotten better lately, but his era still swells at 7.01, despite the relatively clear 4.55 FIP. If the Marlins trade him in the next few weeks, will he do enough to get a high price?
My colleague Michael Baumann wrote about Alcantara in early May, focusing on the poverty of the right in April. One of the most worrying aspects of the fearful starting point is his walking rate of 14%, or 5.9 free passes per 9 innings. It’s not a control issue – the percentage of the area in Alcantara is similar to the seasons of the past – but one of the command posts. You can see the best seasons in Alcantara compared to April in BotCMD (PitchingBot) and Position + (STUCK+).
Command/Position – Sandy Alcantara
| Split | botcmd | Location+ |
|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | 47 | 88 |
| 2023 | 62 | 98 |
| 2022 | 62 | 103 |
| 2021 | 50 | 105 |
| 2020 | 56 | 104 |
His course’s speed and shape may already exist, but the track estimation tool sees the problem. The good news is that as Alcantara grows healthier, these numbers are moving in a positive direction. Take these same numbers, but look at Alcantara’s five-start moving average, which shows his gradual but steady progress towards the ship.
2025 Command/Position – Sandy Alcantara
(Moving average)
| start | botcmd | Location+ |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 51 | 94 |
| 6 | 49 | 91 |
| 7 | 48 | 88 |
| 8 | 47 | 91 |
| 9 | 46 | 93 |
| 10 | 46 | 95 |
| 11 | 50 | 98 |
| 12 | 52 | 97 |
| 13 | 59 | 102 |
| 14 | 59 | 102 |
| 15 | 59 | 102 |
| 16 | 63 | 108 |
| 17 | 61 | 108 |
The two best indicators of future walking rates (besides the actual walking rates) are the percentage hit first and the percentage of out-of-area swing. Usually, if there is a mismatch between the pitcher’s walking rate and these numbers, the walking rate is not as stable as you would expect.
2025 O-Swing and F-Strike – Sandy Alcantara
(Moving average)
| start | oSpin | F-Strike |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 25.2% | 60.7% |
| 6 | 23.0% | 61.7% |
| 7 | 23.9% | 66.3% |
| 8 | 23.0% | 59.7% |
| 9 | 24.3% | 58.5% |
| 10 | 23.6% | 55.3% |
| 11 | 27.0% | 57.6% |
| 12 | 28.6% | 57.2% |
| 13 | 30.5% | 67.2% |
| 14 | 33.2% | 64.5% |
| 15 | 32.9% | 64.0% |
| 16 | 31.8% | 65.1% |
| 17 | 30.3% | 63.7% |
Using ZSTAT built in ZIPS also makes Alcantara very out of place in April and May. He allowed 35 walks in 2025 before tonight’s plan begins, but from the board discipline data, ZBB hopes he only allows 24. Almost the entire difference is based on his performance in April and May, as his walking figures are more typical. Alcantara is not usually a different person than the ZBB project. By the 2025 season, ZBB estimated that he had 277 walks in his career, while he actually allowed 273.
If the early lack of command was to create some weird numbers in Alcantara’s profile, I assume that this was his early dilemma and there was another real factor: caution. In fact, it makes sense that a pitcher who suffered severe injuries may have a more conservative approach than he would have otherwise. Alcantara often trails the Count, with each of his first three games below 60%. When left behind, it is a natural tendency to get along with a safe, swamp-standard four-sitter. The problem is that for Alcantara, vanilla fastballs are never a successful taste. When April and May trailed, mostly in accommodating locations, his fastballs were thrown nearly a third of the time, and the batsman beat .864.
This usage has changed since early June, and I am sure that there will not be any accidental amounts. Since then, his four sales have dropped from 29% to below 10% from the first two months. By comparison, his slider usage increased from 12% in April and May to 31% in June and July. He seemed to believe in his own stuff again.
Although Alcantara’s prospects remained less sunny before the race season, a projection system placed here was shocked by the number of runs he allowed, and all computers agreed that if he traded before the end of the month, he would be a worthwhile pickup. What Flash may be missing in 2025 can be said to be compensated by a team-friendly contract. Alcantara’s potential new employer will also receive a very reasonable year-on-year, $17.3 million contract next season and an option to get the same number in 2027. He isn’t really a short-term rental, like most pitchers expected, which can be tempting and for next year’s competition, it can be tempting and hopefully get good expected value. Zips’ predictions for Alcantara will see a pitcher that the team should be happy to have.
Zipper Projection – Sandy Alcantara
| Year | w | l | era | FIP | g | GS | IP | h | Um | human Resources | BB | so | ERA+ | war |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROS 2025 | 3 | 4 | 3.86 | 3.50 | 10 | 10 | 63.0 | 58 | 26 | 6 | 17 | 53 | 118 | 1.2 |
| 2026 | 8 | 9 | 3.92 | 3.78 | 26 | 26 | 154.0 | 144 | 67 | 15 | 40 | 125 | 112 | 2.7 |
| 2027 | 8 | 8 | 3.98 | 3.88 | 25 | 25 | 144.7 | 139 | 64 | 15 | 38 | 114 | 110 | 2.4 |
Even if Alcantara never returns to his 2022 form, there aren’t many other options to perform at these prediction levels during the deadline. The White Sox have traded their ideal veteran starters on last year’s deadline and offseason, and considering that the Rockies didn’t trade their starters by previous deadlines, we shouldn’t expect them to trade Germán Márquez or Kyale Freeland this time. Nationals have Michael Soroka doing trade, but he doesn’t offer the benefits of Alcantara. Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs both signed contracts with track and field by the end of next season, which may attract competition for clubs, but their mediocre performance this year can curb their trade value. If A wants to launch wildcards in 2026, they can choose to fill in the rotation of two pitchers next year, especially if the prospect package offered is light. Any news you hear about the pirates who might trade Paul Skenes is certainly a fan novel. Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen and Zach Eflin are valuable, but are free agents in the offseason. Additionally, the Rattlesnakes may still be in the fight at the end of this month and have decided to stick with Kelly and Gallen.
Is Sandy Alcantara the pitcher who won the Cy Young Award unanimously over Max Fried? No, but he may have performed much better than he sometimes this season and he is slowly and steadily back where he needs to.
