If Cal Raleigh would do this, when would it?

Carl Rowley is hot. In two days, hitting three home runs in two days, bringing the Big Boy to 56 this season with 11 games left. This rage gave him a realistic shot in the 60th round of the season, a threshold that was only reached by the Elites. He is taking a ridiculous attitude as the catcher. Long time ago, he left an old single-season home run record in the dust.

When I kept learning in the first grade, 62 was only over 60. Given that Raleigh prefers bombs to explode bombs in a pile – he hit six in six games earlier this year and nine in another 11 games – Judge Aaron’s single-season AL home run record (not me for some, the “real” home run record) is in the game.

Just like the tradition of Fangraphs, we predict when it happens when someone goes to implement a home run milestone. Whether it is the judge’s pursuit of Judge No. 62, Albert Pujols’s bid for 700, or Shohei Ohtani’s bid for a 50/50 price forecast, it can predict when the actual milestone game will happen. I’ll start with the method, but there are some tables below if you don’t like it, which will give you an idea of ​​when and where Raleigh might hit his 60th, 62nd or 63rd home run.

I started with the home run rate projection of the depth chart projection on Raleigh. This is based on neutral objection, so I also considered the park factor and objection. Since Raleigh is the revle, I used specific pitchers, so the Mariners were expected to face whether he started the left-hander or was right to hit each game, and also used home run projections from these pitchers to determine the opponent’s strength. I used a mixture of expected starters, home run rates and observed bullpen home run rates to propose the power of an objection estimate. That let me create a unique home run environment for each game. I also told the computer to randomly choose how many disks Raleigh will receive each game, with an average of five most likely, but four to six chances.

sailor possible Give Raleigh a day off, but far from sure. For example, he didn’t have a day off last month. I have 5% off days for each game in both series, which is their regular scheduled day off but has a cap on one off. After a break, the plan assumes that he will play for the rest of the time every day. I also provided a factor that made Raleigh’s home run rate fluctuate around his predictions, which means that in some simulations he hits home runs in 9% of the plate appearances, while in others he hits them 5% of the time. I simulated the remaining one million times this season to get him the possibility of his 60 home runs in a given game:

That top line number is not particularly surprising. We are now predicting 59 home runs for him, so if his 60-year-old odds are above 50%, I would be shocked, but either way is certainly close. The home series against the Rockies and the final game against the Astros (he faced Hunters Brown and Flam Valdez in the first two games of that game) were his best chances for home runs. T-Mobile Park has suppressed the offense, but it’s not particularly difficult for a left-handed home run, and the Rockies plan to start three alternative levels of the right in the series. The final series against the Dodgers this year is another fruitful moment. 60;It’s not that these games are particularly easy, but that the Los Angeles bullpen is now a disaster, and it’s a cumulative game. In a large number of simulations of these simulations, Raleigh dealt most of the damage to the Rockies before hitting his 60th home run in the last series.

Adding a single game, the Rocky Mountains series is the best match if you can only play and want to see the 60th home run. The Dodgers Series is right behind, and for the next stat I’ll show you the next stat is better, with Raleigh’s chances of hitting his 62nd home run in a given game:

Hey, half of 13.5% is not bad. But if you want to see this particular milestone, you need to go to Seattle, perhaps the last part of the season. Even then, in 11 games, there were 6 homers that were a steep enough hill to be played in the simulation, which was the most common in the last game. However, these odds are particularly volatile now. If Raleigh had another home run or two before the weekend, the road to 62 would be more open. If he doesn’t, it’s almost impossible. If I told the model that they would hit two home runs in the next four games, that would give him a 25% chance of reaching 62. In other words, he won’t reach milestones in the next few days, but they’re still important.

Finally, what about the chances of Raleigh reaching 63 and creating a new record for completeness? It will be tough:

TLDR for all of this: If you want to see the big fool hit historic home run, you need to be in Seattle. Depending on whether you are a circular number or Marisiana, you may prefer the Rockies or Dodgers series. But if I can only play one game, I will play against the Dodgers on September 26. Every milestone has great possibilities. On the same day, the Mariners could also occupy the Al West, while Clayton Kershaw planned to pitch for the Dodgers. It’s a cool thing, line up all the time – maybe, maybe, one of them will be a home run and you’ll be able to tell friends you’ve met in person in your life.