ESPN’s relentless journalist Jeff Passan reported Monday night that hamstring pain caused the Yankees to land Luke Weaver in close range by being landed on the IL by Sunday night against the Dodgers, for 4-6 weeks, while a more specific schedule will appear later. The extent of Weaver’s injury was previously unknown, as he was still far away in the trainer’s room at the end of the post-match media interview.
Weaver was almost perfect throughout the season – only 25 2/3 innings allowed in his 24 games, although two of the runs appeared in his last three games. While Weaver’s micro 1.05 ERA may not be true, given his “normal” 3.04 FIP, even the latter figures make him one of the most important members of the New York Relief Corps, and losing him for a great deal is a blow. Weaver is one of the most successful rotational switches in recent memory, starting with a troubled tourer who was released and later released to immunity in 2023, becoming a candidate for the first All-Star Game this July. Since his transition to the bullpen, Weaver’s delivery also comes with a minimalist title, and his delivery results also make ERA 2.46 ERA and 3.26 FIP over 109 2/3 innings. He also gave up on his four World Series appearances last October.
While this is almost impossible to be considered good news, the impact of bad news is mitigated by several factors. First, Weaver’s injury happened when the Yankees led 5 1/2 games in Al East. Of course, it’s not an insurmountable lead, but it’s a comfortable lead at this point this season. Back in April, our pre-season forecast had the Yankees only 31% chance to win the division, and Zips’ confidence wasn’t too confident, at 24%. As of Tuesday morning, the probability of these sectors was 89% and 86% respectively. To illustrate this, Zips’s quantity factor is injured and he is expected to miss out on a full six weeks of worst-case scenario to illustrate this: If he happens to hit the shortest time, he will only not get a 0.8% percentile before he leaves the IL, meaning they are all pretty strong in shape.
The second factor to alleviate the pain is that losing a pitcher is much better now than a month from now on. Instead, Weaver adjusted his hamstrings in early July, and the Yankees may have to enter a trade deadline without fully knowing what state his position will continue. If complications arise due to an injury, or if he is healing slower than expected, they might say that it was poor before the All-Star game, so this will give them a lot of time to decide how to resolve his long absence.
Manager Aaron Boone Confirmed Tuesday morning Williams will be closer when on the loom. After absolutely terrible pitches in the opening week of the season, Williams has usually returned from his 15 appearances since.
Devin Williams – Split
| Split | era | FIP | k% | bb% | touch% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-2024 | 1.46 | 2.50 | 39.2% | 12.2% | 61.7% |
| The first 10 games of 2025 | 11.25 | 4.08 | 18.2% | 15.9% | 79.5% |
| 15 games since then | 3.29 | 2.42 | 38.5% | 9.6% | 63.7% |
There is usually a rumble among Williams’ withered fanatics under pressure in New York, but more likely, he is a great relief pitcher, and three weeks are pretty bad. I’ve seen this question in the past – maybe I’ll write an article at some point – because I’m interested in accurate predictions and have not found that the historical trends of obtained or signed Yankees are underperforming, nor do they show their predictions as a group. This is OK for both batsmen and pitchers. Even Ed Whitson, whose pitcher has been raised to be the best demonstration of this effect, doesn’t match the myth! Since the beginning of this season, only bats have had a great impact on his projection in Fanggraphs’ projection system.
Williams almost played a saving chance against the Angels last week, but at some point you have to trust your best pitcher to play a big role. If it weren’t for Williams, who was it?
Mark Leiter J. This is Devin Williams – a two-time NL Awards winner of the Year, and the Yankees got close to him in the offseason. He is still the guy in the job.
Fernando Cruz has been absolutely brilliant since he abandoned his knives and radiated more splitters than divorce lawyers. But he also spent 15 days at Illinois State in the past 15 days due to shoulder pain, bringing him back to a more important role, immediately carrying his own risks. If Williams should be staggering, then Cruz can still provide a healthy situation.
Tim Hill is still a left-handed expert in post-age age. He is hardly a pitcher for a confusing batsman, and his sliver is extremely extreme and may not improve as he lacks the ball against the right batsman. To illustrate this, the average OPS performance for left-handed batsmen is better than facing the right batsmen in 2025 when they are less than 3% of the time (e.g., Hill) is less than 3% of the time. At least 3% of the levomunition rate is 35 points.
Jonathan Loáisiga may be a candidate at some point, but he has had mixed results since returning from Tommy John’s surgery in mid-May. I love that Ian Hamilton made the season and put him on my breakout list, but his 14.8% walk rate certainly won’t cut.
It’s not a bad idea for the Yankees to add another high leverage or two arms behind their bullpen, but it’s not needed, but a few out of necessity, as a competitive club is always smart to strengthen the bullpen before the trade deadline. Anyway, apart from any annoying surprises, Weaver’s injury could not derail their season or represent a significant change in the prospect of his return.
