There isn’t much mystery about the Warriors’ offseason needs. Ha-Seong Kim declined his player option, moving them back to No. 1 at shortstop. They need to add depth to a rotation that has been hit by injuries. They could lose three high-leverage relievers (Russell Iglesias, Pierce Johnson and Tyler Kinley) to free agency.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Tuesday that starting pitchers and shortstops will be prioritized early in the offseason. “We’re going to be focusing on those places,” he told reporters (reported by The Athletic’s David O’Brien). “We’ll see where those lead us, what the acquisition costs are, et cetera, and then we’ll turn our attention to the bullpen.”
The Braves more or less communicated this course of action when they rejected Johnson and Kinley’s club options. The latter is especially surprising since $5.50 can keep the Kinley. That seems like a bargain for a pitcher who posted a 0.72 ERA in 25 innings after agreeing to a deadline deal with the Rockies. Johnson’s cut seems slightly easier given his rough finish to the season, but he’s still been a generally effective high-leverage arm in two and a half seasons with the Braves.
Cutting Kinley and Johnson saved the Warriors $11.5MM. After Kim opted out, another $16MM was taken off the books. Some of that was offset by raises for Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López. The Warriors committed $176.5MM to 12 players, even though they may have one of the lightest arbitration levels in the sport. Dylan Lee and Nick Allen may be the only two arbitration-eligible players they have signed to contracts, which they expect to be worth less than $4MM between them.
The Warriors started last season with a player salary of about $208. They should have considerable spending power to at least add a mid-level free agent like Jurickson Profar last winter. Their claim against Kim begins with their willingness to pay him $16MM. He’ll likely remain their primary target at shortstop, who simply doesn’t have many options.
Beau Bichette is the only other free agent at the position. He is obviously worth much more than gold. The trade market looks barren, especially if the Nationals don’t want to trade C.J. Abrams to a division rival. There may be long-term trade options like J.P. Crawford or Ezequiel Tovar, but the more likely outcome is that if the Warriors don’t complete a trade for King, they’ll either need to stick with Allen or trade for a similarly low-upside stopgap.
The current rotation is Sale, Strider, Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach and Heston Waldrep. It would be a great group if all five pitchers made 30 or more starts, but that’s unrealistic. All but Waldrep missed time last season. Lopez started just one game before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. Schwerenbach suffered a fractured elbow and missed the second half. Sale is entering his age-37 season. Grant Holmes may or may not pitch with a sprained elbow. The Warriors, with only Bryce Elder, Didier Fuentes, and maybe Alec Manoa as depth pieces, can’t save the situation.
Under Anthopoulos, Atlanta didn’t invest heavily in free agent pitching (although they reportedly took a stab at Aaron Nola before he signed a seven-year contract extension with Philadelphia). Will that change this offseason? Georgia natives Dylan Seth, Flamber Valdez, Michael King and Zach Gallen are among the most notable free agent starters.
Luke Weaver and Brad Keller are candidates for the mid-level bench-to-start conversion the Warriors are trying to do with Lopez. The Braves have one of the weakest farm systems in Major League Baseball, which would put them at a disadvantage in a bidding war for a top controllable trade candidate like Joe Ryan. However, they could offer a sizable salary on the trade market, which could entice someone like Luis Severino, Robbie Ray or Jack Flaherty to come on board if they’re looking for a source in the middle of the rotation.
An emphasis on the rotation and shortstop could leave them looking for cheaper bullpen targets later in the winter. Lee, Boomer and Joe Jimenez (who missed all of last season recovering from knee rehab surgery) are their top interior options in the backcourt. They need to add at least one right-hander who can pitch in the leverage position while completely changing the middle-inning group.
