It’s no secret that the Rays operate differently than almost every other team in baseball. They aggressively trade and reshape their roster at almost every opportunity to prevent the team from needing to rebuild, and that system has worked for quite some time. from Willie Adams arrive Tyler Glasnow arrive Randy Arozarenamost players don’t stay in Tampa for long and then get traded before they actually have a chance to sniff free agency and leave for nothing.
The conventional wisdom for quite some time has been that as the Rays star approaches free agency, a trade is inevitable. This seems to mean the end Brandon LoweTime with the team. He can be retained with a $11.5MM club option for 2026, but will become a free agent after that. Tampa is headed for an 85-loss season in 2025, a worrying sign for a team that hasn’t lost more games since 2007. For most clubs, this would further reinforce the need to trade Lowe and focus on the future. That being said, the Rays are not like most clubs. Can they continue to go the way of other teams and view a difficult 2025 season as more reason to keep Lowe?
The 31-year-old is coming off his second All-Star appearance but has had a pretty typical season by his standards. In 134 games this year, Lowe slashed .256/.307/.477 with 31 home runs and 19 doubles. That’s not bad for a 114 wRC+, and he’s typically been about 15 to 25 percent better than league average by that measure throughout his career. Almost any team that doesn’t hire employees Cottle Malte It would be nice to get that kind of offensive production from the cornerstone, but Lowe’s offense is especially important for Tampa as he is one of only four above-average hitters on the 2025 roster Jonathan Aranda, Junior Camineroand Yandy Diaz.
That leaves the Rays with a below-average offense that has a 98 wRC+ despite both Aranda and Caminero having excellent seasons. They also rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs this year, with the four players mentioned above accounting for 115 of the club’s 182 bombs. Tampa’s offense needs more, not less, and it’s hard to imagine the Rays trading Lowe to get more production from the second base position.
Perhaps if the Rays have an elite option waiting to take over, like they did when they traded Paredes to clear the way for Caminero, trading Lowe would be an easy choice. But it’s harder to stick to typical Tampa tactics when the internal options to replace him are somewhat lackluster. Christopher Morel Has not been successful since being acquired Isaac Paredes trade, while Carson Williams Is a top prospect with a chance to impact the club in 2026, and would be better served if they let him drive the Rays Tyler Walls Returning to a backup role instead of having Lowe make room for him at the cornerstone spot. Richie Palacios Might be an interesting solution, but moving him to second would only further weaken an outfield that’s already in need of reinforcements.
While the case for keeping Lowe on the team is clear, there are reasons to at least consider trading him despite these concerns. Luo can be said to be in a period of decline at the moment. His .307 on-base percentage this year is the worst of his career. Having maintained a walk rate above 10% for most of his career, he’s now seen his walk rate drop precipitously in consecutive seasons. His approval rating rose from 11.5% in 2023 to 7.8% and 6.9% in the last two elections.
This has been his worst defensive season at second base, and an infield with Williams at second and Walls at shortstop would be a huge improvement defensively. While this combination doesn’t hit as well as Lowe and Williams, the outfielder who produced a paltry 85 wRC+ this year is relatively easy to improve on and make up for the loss of Lowe’s bat.
Looking at the team’s situation from a broader perspective, Aranda and Caminero are under team control in 2029 and 2030 respectively, while Williams is expected to be under team control in 2031. This is an exciting core of young talent, but they need reinforcements with players like Lowe, Pete FairbanksDiaz, Sean McClanahanand Drew Rasmussen leaving the organization over the next two seasons. Letting Lowe leave for free would be a huge risk for the team’s long-term competitive future, especially if the team’s new ownership group isn’t interested in increasing the bottom salary.
On the other hand, Lowe’s apparent decline may make potential suitors hesitant to give up significant value to him. Putting Lowe in the corner outfield (he has made 50 career appearances) would be an alternative to alleviating concerns about his defensive ability in the infield while also getting more offensive production from the outfield next year. However, Lowe has not played on grass since 2022.
The Rays also don’t find themselves hurt by salary flexibility this offseason, as they have in most years after offloading Kim Ha Sung, Danny Jensenand Zach Little from their books during the season. They could even still recoup value for Lowe before the deadline if they find themselves in a position to sell for a third straight year.
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