Designated batsman Kyle Schwarber Free agents are scheduled to end the season. Recently, several different writers have surfaced, and it is the possibility of his next contract. On May 6, ESPN's Jeff Passan published an op-ed article describing Schwarber's reaching 25mm per year in a four-year contract, which is “very reasonable.” About a week later, Scott Lauber of Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that Schwarber's recent performance could “result in a $100 million contract,” which had previously avoided him.
While Passan did conclude that the nine-digit number was “reasonable” for Schwarber, he knew it would set a new precedent. “A designated hitter will reach 33 on the next opening day, earning a nine-digit deal” would be an “outlier” but thinks Schwarber himself is a more outlier contract worth breaking the mold.
This article will introduce current precedents to understand that Schwarber, with the help of MLBTR's contract tracker, must promote the market in order to reach the century.
This image (link to the app user) shows all free agent trades for nearly 20 years of designated hitters and is sorted by total guarantee. As you can see, the designated batsman has not paid 25mm a year and has not received a guarantee of 100mm.
Shohei Ohtani For obvious reasons, here is a small island. As far as the two-way player is concerned, he is a unicorn in his field ability, and his international stars are unparalleled. No one else is 20mm tall every year. Anthony Santander As far as total stickers are concerned, it's almost a century mark, but his 92.5mm trade has a significant delay, which brings the net present value closer to the 70mm range. He is not a strict DH, and he registered more than 1,000 innings in the field last year.
Next on the list is Schwarber himself. He entered the 29-year-old season last time he entered the open market, but he only earned $79mm in four years, compared to just 20mm in the AAV. Inflation usually drives the market forward, but somewhat similar players Joc Pederson In the most recent offseason, Santander only reached 18.5 mm per year.
Schwarber is better than those guys, but let's look at the issues of this era. This is all free agent contracts for batsmen starting at 33 years of age or older, regardless of position.
In this image (link to the app user), we can see that from the age of 33, batsmen without free agents have received a guarantee of 100mm, nor have they started to earn an annual salary of 25mm at that age. Another way to $100mm is to get $20mm of 20mm per year in five years. However, as shown in this image, there has been no recent deals reaching this length for players of this age group.
Josh Donaldson It is indeed close to the 25mm AAV and 100mm total. But at the time of this deal, he was still an above-average third baseman. He just played 37 home runs for Atlanta and was saved with ten defensive runs, above average. He continued to perform well in the first half of the deal but scored a low on the plate in the final two years.
As for Starling Martehis 2021 season saw his shooting percentage of 132 WRC+, over 1,000 innings in the outfield and snatched 47 bases in just 120 games. Still, he was limited to four years, while the AAV was only 20mm.
Therefore, the designated hitter cannot obtain a 100mm contract. Players will not be in their 30s. To make Schwarber the 33-year-old DH 100mm, some teams have to think he is worth more than any other player in these categories. In fact, Schwarber, 33, must get Schwarber, who is above 29.
Schwarber worked for him, and since he came to Philadelphia, he had found new gear on the plate. He has hit 148 home runs since signing with Philes. He walked with 15.4% of the clip. His 28.7% strikeout rate is high, but he has been in that range. Overall, his Phillies have a 0.224/.348/.496 line and a 131 WRC+. The only one Judge Aaron Ohtani hit more home runs at the time. The judge and Juan Soto In terms of walking rates, the only one in front of him, and the WRC+ figure ranks 11th for that batsman with a span of at least 2,000 sets. This year, Schwarber has even surpassed his own pace, already having 17 home runs, .253/.390/.573 line and 164 WRC+.
He was below that until he came to Philadelphia. From 2017 to 2019, he cut 113 WRC+ with the Cubs .234/.337/.492. His walking rate was 12.9%, but a few drops lower than his subsequent speed in Philadelphia. Likewise, he has played 94 home runs in these three seasons, just over 30 seasons a year. It's very good, but he's versus Pheles' annual speed to nearly 45.
He then fell in the shortened 2020 campaign. He did hit 11 home runs, but his .188/.308/.393 line leads to 91 WRC+. The Cubs could have kept him in 2021, with an expected arbitration salary in the 8-10mm range, but they decided to move on. He rebounded vigorously in 2021, separating his time between the Nationals and the Red Sox. He signed a 10mm deal with Washington and headed to Boston on the deadline. He hit 32 home runs with 145 WRC+ and scored a .266/.374/.554 line with 145 WRC+.
His tough 2020 performance is still fresh in the minds of baseball decision makers and hindered his market the last time he became a free agent. He has since proved himself very reliable on the plate, thus eliminating his non-cargo memory.
The question now is whether the team will think he can move on. When he signed his last contract, he remained a viable fielder. He has never been good on the left field, but he was a regular before signing with Philes, scoring about 1,000 innings on the grass in 2022 and 2023. He's almost entirely DH, almost exclusively DH in 2024, in 41 innings in 2024, and so far, he's only 36 innings in 2025 so far. This means he needs to continue to provide any value.
Even the most talented players will decline in performance in the mid-30s. Donaldson and Marte have performed well on both sides of the ball over the platform for a few years, but Marte has been a replacement class starting with his 34-year-old season. Donaldson's Bats averaged below the league average on his 36-year-old campaign. José Abreu It was his AL MVP for the 33-year-old season, but it was not available until his 36-year-old season.
This could make Schwarber a few years away. Perhaps not playing ball will help him to gracefully descend that aging curve. Check out some of the names above, Edwin Enacion In his 36-year-old season, there were 34 home runs and 130 WRC+. Victor Martinez In his 35-year-old campaign, there were 32 bombs and 168 WRC+. He then held a nightmare season with 11 home runs and 77 WRC+ but rebounded in solid campaign style at the age of 37, with 27 long balls and 120 WRC+.
Santander played only 44 home runs last year, and even when he entered his 30-year-old season, he still couldn't get nine figures. However, he never reached a very high walking rate, so his overall offensive character is less than Schwarber's offensive rate. Even with those bombs, he had only 129 WRC+ last year, which was his best result of the season. Schwarber’s average production in Philadelphia for more than three years is much more than that, and in 2025, there is a big peak here.
Last year, Pederson proposed 151 WRC+, but mostly blocked left-handed. In his career, he has a 0.209/.305/.328 line, against Southpaws WRC+ 78. Schwarber had some sequel problems early in his career, but seemed to leave those people behind. When signing with the Phillies, he had the .214/.324/.361 line, while the 86 WRC+ had no rank-up advantage. Since coming to Philadelphia, he has the .235/.357/.468 line and 130 WRC+. Surprisingly, his WRC+ targeting left-handed is growing year by year: 95 years old in 2022, at 107 in 2023, 153 times last year, and so far in 2025, a shocking 223.
Perhaps also noteworthy is that the year of age reduction has been reduced by one year, opening up another interesting addition from recent years. Donaldson's $92mm deal is the highest score for 33 years old Freddie Freeman He won a six-year 162mm contract in his 32-year-old campaign. His overall batsman is better than Schwarber, with a career of 143 WRC+. He is also a first baseman, not limited to DH positions. The difference between these factors and one age is Schwarber's entry into Freeman's argument, but it's possible that he does so and reaches the century.
Another factor to consider is the qualification proposal, as Schwarber has never received it. Since he traded in 2021, he is not eligible for a Qo before signing with Pheles. If he sticks in Philadelphia all season and continues to produce like this, they will definitely send him to him, which is probably in the price range of around 22mm.
Will a team be willing to play a four-year, nine-digit bet at the 33-year-old Department of Health and give up the draft pick in the process? It never happened. Time will tell if Schwarber is unique enough to set some new benchmarks.
Image courtesy of Bill Streicher, image
