Astros owner Jim Crane is “cautious” about exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the second straight offseason, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. Lowering the tax line was also a top priority for Houston last offseason.
This year’s first-tier luxury goods threshold is $244. According to RosterResource, the Astros are currently about 25MM shy of that goal. their DFA Ramon Urias And last night’s deal with utility colleagues Mauricio Dupont (For less expensive utility options Nick Allen) slashed a net $8.7MM from the salary forecast, which uses MLBTR writer Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salary.
Houston’s current $218.9MM luxury tax projection could – and likely will – drop further over the next 36 hours. The deadline to submit contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tomorrow at 5 PM ET. The Stross have several plausible non-tender candidates, including an outfielder Jesus Sanchez (Estimated salary $6.5MM), backup Enil de los Santos ($2.1MM projected) and outfielders Tyler Trammell (Estimated $900,000). If the Astros move on from this trio, they would take a net $7.15MM off their current projection of $218.9MM.
It’s no secret that the Astros are in the market for rotation help — and they’ve signed their former top prospect to a one-year deal on a cheap deal Nate Pearsonguaranteed him $1.35MM — and has struggled to balance the right-handed lineup for much of the past year. Framber Valdez is a free agent, leaving Hunter Brown They have more question marks than solid contributors.
Christian Javier He’s a quality off-spin arm when healthy, but 2026 will be his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. Lance McCullers Jr. He returned in 2025 after missing two years due to injury, but his performance was poor. Spencer Alehti Missed most of the season with a broken thumb. Jason Alexander Contribution in 2025 is surprising, but he’s a 33-year-old journeyman with no previous success in the MLB and underachieving in Triple-A during the 2023-24 season. french justice of the peace Pitched in just four games in MLB and spent the first two-thirds of the season recovering from shoulder surgery and was hit hard in Triple-A. left handed Colton Gordon The rookie made 19 starts and had a 5.34 ERA. right leaning AJ Blubber He was impressive in his first 32 innings in the majors, but in the larger Triple-A sample, he posted a 5.27 ERA. every Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter Had Tommy John surgery. prospect Miguel Urora Might be considered, but he hasn’t played in the majors yet and has poor command.
Arguably, the need for starting pitching is dire, but the means to obtain it are not abundant. The Astros could certainly add a free agent starter at a substantial salary, but that would take up a good chunk of the space between their current status and the No. 1 luxury class. Add left-handed bat to lineup Jordan Alvarez and a rookie outfielder. Zach Cole The only options at the moment (assuming no tender or trade for Sanchez) would also close the gap. Houston would also presumably prefer to add another catcher; current backup Cesar Salazar He hit just .213/.353/.353 in Triple-A last season and has only 67 career appearances in the majors. He turns 30 in March. Of course, most teams prefer to reserve at least a little financial wiggle room for in-season trades.
The trade market always offers alternatives, but Houston’s farm system has struggled. The Astros have long shown a knack for coaxing pitchers who aren’t considered top talents across the industry to perform well (although the team clearly stalled in that regard last season). However, that doesn’t mean other clubs will be lining up to give up proven talent in exchange for a minor leaguer widely considered to be among the bottom five in the game.
Further trades could be engineered to create more spending power, but general manager Dana Brown downplayed the possibility of moving the first baseman Christian Walker (Owed $40MM through 2027) and flatly stated he had “no interest” in trading the infielder Isaac Paredes (Estimated salary $9.3MM). As it stands, the Astros have limited spending power to meet their needs, and an even more limited stock of minor league talent to tout if they try to upgrade via trade. There are never any “easy” answers when trying to field a contending roster with enough depth to handle a 162-game season, but Brown & Co. are staring down their most complicated conundrum in recent memory.
