This is not the company the Red Sox hopes they can keep. When they face off against the winemakers tonight, they will work to avoid joining the Rockies, White Sox, Pirates and Rays to become the only baseball team in at least four independent three-game winning streak this season. Currently, Boston ranks fourth in AL East and ranks 2nd 1/2 in the last wildcard position. According to our playoff odds, the Red Sox’s playoff probability has dropped more than half since opening day, from 56.2% to 25.3%. Only the Braves, Orioles and Rangers fell more.
Boston’s recent win also provided the biggest loss of the season to date. When Alex Bregman signed in February, there was good reason to believe that the Green Monster would be his best friend. His game was designed to lift the ball to the side of the pull, and he had bounced five doubles and a flying wall to launch with three home runs. But the monster betrayed Bregman on Friday. In the first game against the Orioles (the second game was postponed and Saturday turned into a double), Bregman burned a single on a single wall, but things fell off when he shredded his steps to get out of the positive twist.
“I was surrounding up and digging the second base, and I kind of felt my four-pointer, so I didn’t keep running to the second base,” Bregman said. “I just stopped and got back to the bag so I didn’t get worse. Feeling it, I knew I needed to come out and see the coach.” Bregman left the game with a tight right quadrangle, telling reporters that he was initially worried that the injury might be worse, but he felt more positive after the game and hoped he would avoid an IL trip. “I hope I’m sleeping well and feeling good,” he said. “We’ll just see how it’s shown and take the next step there, just follow the training staff, their leadership.
Bregman couldn’t sleep. Four rounds of pain caused him to wake up at night, and Saturday morning’s MRI revealed “very severe” stress. Bregman compared it to the left-limb strain he suffered in 2021. This pressure caused him to eliminate him for 69 days from June 17 to April 25. If the Red Sox are looking for comfort, then Bregman looks like himself when he returns that season, running 115 wrc+ before injury, and after he returns after injury and 112 wrc+ (with 112 WRC+ (with better exit speed numbers). But it’s cold and comfortable. With 160 WRC+ this season, Bregman has been the best player on the team and he’s at least two months.
For Bregman, it’s hard to exaggerate how rough it is. His 2.5 War ranks 11th among all position players. With .404 Woba, he has made his best start throughout his career. By performing well, he also gave himself a chance to exercise his first exit on his three-year contract and gain the opportunity for a long-term deal he had always wanted. This is likely not on the table now.
The loss of Bregman also hindered the situation that should have been celebrated as the team called Marcelo Mayer, the second member of its three major prospects, to fill it. Three weeks ago, he lost the keys somewhere on the court, “never cared about them until I needed them.” Yes, Mayer must be 22 years old. He started at third base that night, a position he had played in professional games six times before.
Mayer is the top 100 prospects with legal power. In the training update after the spring, Eric Longenhagen set him at No. 30, at the top of 50 future value levels. According to the call, when considering Mayer today, Eric told me that he upgraded Mayer to 55, which means Mayer upgraded from daily player FV to above average regular season and pushed him to No. 14 on the board. Eric is sometimes Mayer’s low man because he has difficulty handling soft things at the bottom of the area. This was written by him in February, when he was ranked 57th:
He performed despite these problems throughout his career, but they continued to scare me. Marcelo’s front side was so upright throughout the swing that it was nearly impossible for him to dip something soft at the bottom and under the strike zone. He can definitely play a fastball, but if he continues to play like he does against middle school, the major league pitchers won’t show him a lot of them. How vivid is the contrast? Last year, Mayer had 87% contact with fastballs and 57% contact with playing balls.
Prior to the summoning, Mayer ran 115 WRC+ on Triple-A Worcester with a walk rate of more than 10% and a strikeout rate of less than 20%. However, the 115 WRC+ in Triple-A performs above average in professional performance, and we can also make a very simple crash.
Marcelo Mayer’s 2025 Triple A split
| Pitch Type | Wauba | touch% | Hard % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball and cutter | .397 | 81.9 | 53.8 |
| Everything else | .300 | 67.6 | 38.9 |
Source: Baseball Savant
Mayer ruled a break and speedy court a bit good this season at Worcester, which helped him build more connections, but obviously still his weakness. He only has 0.222 WOBA, against the speed thing.
Mayer had 54 WRC+ in his first three games with the Red Sox and made 3-for-12 shots with three points, no walks and three strikeouts. So far, 52.9% of the courts he has seen are fastballs or cuts, only a few percentage points below the league average. You have to imagine that this fee will be titrated a little. “I don’t think his problem with soft things is so bad that he has a risk of disruption, but I think at some point the major league pitchers will force him to improve,” Eric told me. The power is real, though. “If my grades ended up being lighter and it turns out he’s actually a consistent All-Star, it’s because of how much power he gained when he touched,” Eric said.
As for his defense, Mayer was the shortstop of the trade, and he spent very little time on the second time. Eric put the game in the 45/50th level on defense. He doesn’t have strong range or arm strength, but his hands and movements are excellent, which should give him a chance to stick to this position for a long time. Shortstop was Boston’s main weakness before Bregman was injured. Trevor’s story has been unable to stay on the court or perform since signing with the Red Sox before the 2022 season. He has played 52 games this season, which is already the second biggest game he has served with the Red Sox, but as Jay Jaffe recorded last week, Story lasted the -0.2 war thanks to 62 WRC+ and ugly defensive metrics. Mayer did play some short games on Sunday as Boston hopes he can reset his story.
Even before the season began, it was clear that the Red Sox needed a story that planned to ease their duties, and that’s what Mayer looked like. Although he never completely dominates, he hits every stop for the minor, but his ascent is only hurt by a series of nas and slows down. He played well at Worcester this season, but it wasn’t enough to force the issue. He may use more time, but Bregman’s injury forced him to do this problem for him, and the severity could mean Mayer plays every day, whether he’s ready or not. If he can’t put his head on the water, Bregman’s injury could be a decisive feature of the Red Sox season.
The damage adds another layer of conspiracy to the Boston infield, and there have been too many conspiracies in recent months. Rafael Devers will be the obvious candidate to fill in third basemen, who has held the Red Sox position since the team called in July 2017, but manager Alex Cora made it clear that this wouldn’t happen. About three weeks since first baseman Triston Casas fell due to a ruptured Patra tendon, recreating the controversial fire that began in February. To review: The Red Sox is determined, Devers will stay at third base anyway, and then ask him to move to DH two days after signing Bregman. The injured Devers refused, went to the media, and then backed off to become the best DH in the American League. When Cassas was injured, Socks asked Devers to learn first base instantly. He once again refused to make it public. They even brought in owner John Henry to talk, but at least in public, no further development. Alex Speier on Saturday Boston Global The Devers did not occupy the ground for three weeks, wrote.
Meanwhile, Kristian Campbell has been practicing at first base, although the team said he won’t be ready to play there anytime soon. Worse, Campbell looked like he had lost his plate. Despite the ugly spring training numbers, Campbell was on the roster on the opening day, starting his major league career and quickly signed for an eight-year extension. He broke out with a 17-game winning streak of 17 consecutive wins until April 29. His walking rate dropped by about 14 percentage points and his strikeout rate improved by 4. He also scored poorly on defense, especially according to the Doctor, who ranked fourth in -8 in all players regardless of position.
Overall, the Red Sox took the best Baseball 2.8 War from their third base position and got -0.5 from other in-site spots, the worst in the third inning in the Grand Slam. Bregman single keeps the infield in the middle of the backpack, but without him, the dirt is an open black hole. Boston is also very vocal about the intention of taking Yoshida Masataka until his shoulders are healthy enough that he can throw without any restrictions, and although he is ready to hit now, he is not a good defender and he has no room in the outfield anyway. In other words, even if the team is willing to get Devers third in the next few months, turning Campbell into first and Mayer moves it to second, because without Yoshida, it won’t be much different, because without Yoshida, there’s no better Bats into the DH’s roster.
Currently, the Red Sox will rely on Mayer and Campbell, two 22-year-old rookies with 210 major league cards appearing between them. Everyone who follows the Red Sox wants to know throughout the offseason that Campbell, Mayer, and of course, when Roma Anthony will go to the bright lights and huge expectations of Fenway Park. After years of impatient waiting, the future is far beyond what anyone wants.
