Trent Grisham did what he couldn't do

They say the first step to solving the problem is to admit that you have a problem. In this spirit, I want to start today’s article with a duty of confession: I have a question about Trent Grisham’s assessment. It's great to say it! I've encountered this problem over the years. I've been overestimating his future trajectory since he hits the San Diego scene for two consecutive seasons. I put him on the first cut of my trade value list every year. Even if the team hiring him doesn't do it, I see him as a starter.
I know all of this. In the past, when I looked at Grisham, even if no one else didn’t, I saw a great player and I knew that this bias would cause my assessment. But just when I thought I had made a habit, Grisham left, did something like this, and pulled me back. In Monday's action (Q1 of the season), he hit a ridiculous .288/.373/.663, and while that's not any reasonable batsman, he's definitely a mean ball card, his career is high, it's hard to run around on ball cards, barter's speed is hard XSLG, average exit speed…you get it, he's just hard to hit everything at the moment.
Now, as a reformed Grishamite, I have to tell you that playing hard is not one of Grisham’s shortcomings. Of course, not that much, because the only person who often hits such is Judge Aaron, but he has been a deep threat. Grisham may have had low toxic WRC+ over the past three years, but the problem is his hit volume rather than the quantity of mass. Even if he slid through, he had about 20 home runs per 600 sets. He doesn't always put the ball in the game, but when he does, he counts it.
Grisham also forced the pitcher to come and find him. He is one of the best in the league when it comes to chase rates and he walks with double-digit editing. Again, I have to tell you that this is nothing new. Grisham has a higher chasing rate than last year and his walking rate is below his career average. Unlike your typical outfielder with a below-average batting line, this is not a problem that Grisham has never seen a slider he doesn't like. He would be willing to work hard if the pitcher didn't challenge him in the area.
Do these qualities sound bad? welcome! You can also take a look at Trent Grisham and see the next great power and Patience Masher who happens to play well in the midfield in the midfield. But trust me when I say it's easy to be misled by these traits. Grisham has years of power. He has been choosing for many years. Why does it manifest as the hottest range of his career, rather than the rest of his career?
Here's a simple way to think about it: Grisham never waves too many problems. On the contrary, his swing was too few and there was a problem. Few hitters have fewer, especially in the early stages of counting. But few batsmen swing less frequently than Grisham. That's how to bargain. You can't have another one. There will always be a trade-off.
Generally speaking, I love a player who rarely swings rather than too often. It's simple math, more or less. There are some great results (hits), some horrible results (strikes out) and some bad results (foul balls or swings). There are fewer results for swinging on the ball, as it is difficult to cause damage when you hit the ball outside the area. But the disadvantages? They are still there. At the same time, get the ball? That's great. And strike? Sure, this is bad, but you end up causing a strike during a lot of time you swing. Take more pitches and you will make more effort in the count unless the pitcher adapts.
However, there is a huge problem with this approach, and you can see it in Grisham's career. How about a person who rarely chases 26% of the clips? This is because he has not reached the right balance between selectivity and selectivity. This approach has a weakness, which is simple: counting early attack strike zones. If you said, because the pitcher isn't crazy, you can take a very patient approach. They knew that Soto was both patient and absolutely deadly when he swung. He has elite contact skills and top-notch strength. He also has recognition from top courts – that's why they paid him a lot of money. If you want to sneak away the midfield fastball through Soto, you have to bear the consequences when he gets out.
Grisham will never be the next Juan Soto, but what about the next Lars Nootbaar? Although Nootbaar's career is 20% higher than the average offensive end, his attacks are also far below Grisham's. This is because, simply put, when he waved his strike in the early days of the number, he was trying to swing, make more connections and keep more connections fair. Yes, those things are good, we provide the attacks for Grisham's defenders, almost missing the difference during Grisham's long landing.
This brings me to 2025. I'm trying to make a measurement. I'm trying not to read too much. But Grisham looks very different from what he used to be, and the specific things he determines are most of the things that have made him back in recent years. Yes, that's right: Trent Grisham is actually paying when he is forcing him to beat his strike. I highlighted the best results in each of the following categories:
Trent Grisham, early counting, in the region
| Year | swing% | whif/swing % | % in game/swing | Hard hit % | Xwobacon | Running/100 swings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 48.3% | 19.1% | 20.5% | 41.3% | .462 | 0.1 |
| 2021 | 53.3% | 18.0% | 19.6% | 37.2% | .356 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 42.1% | 20.6% | 17.4% | 40.0% | .376 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 50.6% | 26.4% | 16.9% | 39.8% | .400 | 0 |
| 2024 | 45.1% | 21.7% | 18.6% | 50.0% | .339 | 2.0 |
| 2025 | 51.6% | 8.9% | 21.9% | 55.9% | .563 | 4.1 |
0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 counting, all courts in the hit area
Really, Xwobacon? Sure, everything is more delicious with Bacon, but that's just the expected value of the ball he's working on, uh, yes, these are a lot. He has a much more connection, and it has more meaning than any moment in his career. Now that he is depositing early fastballs into the right field rack, the pitcher can’t just flood the area and expect to win. Grisham won't produce at this level for a long time. For context, Soto performed about four runs every 100 runs in his career. But Grisham both rode the hot score and made improvements that could always be reached.
I mean, of course, this is for human home run generator Kyle Gibson, but a year ago, Grisham didn't do that:
Here are the people who oppose better pitchers:
Want to put Grisham into a dead middle change to disappoint him? If what he does is not:
Like most batsmen, when Grisham reaches a two-shot count, the bats are higher and the bats are lower. When a foul ball doesn't make you strike, the swing gets better, and when the hit can end your shot, it gets worse. Many of the most patient batsmen at baseball turned to a more contact approach and went on two strikes to deal with this unfortunate reality, but for Grisham the program was not working well, with Grisham’s contact skills below average, which compared his two guys to me.
If the two-stroke count is harmful to you, the best thing you can do is avoid it. But Grisham was never very good at it, mainly because he didn't convert his tired enough early pitch into a ball in the game. Some of them are about not swinging, but some of them are his swing being a foul ball or whip rather than a solid touch. Think of it this way: in a 600 PA season, with previous career rates, Grisham will eventually have 33 more double hit counts than Nootbaar. That's a ton and he's terrible in the two hit count, even relative to the league average in these difficult situations. This year, he has basically been Nootbaar's avoidance of double hit counts (and Soto's value). The two men ended up leaning against the back of the wall with more than the entire league, and now Grisham does the same.
I'll stay steady with you: Despite my best efforts, I've started to go back to the Grisham experience. Imagine a central fielder with a double walking rate and 25Home strength. Despite a small sample, Grisham is a great defender with poor defensive metrics in 2025. He has been in the top 10 in baseball since his debut, thanks to a very good first step that makes up for his only acceptable straight-line speed. That kind of defender with walking and strength? Where do I register?
Of course, you sign up with the Ben Clemens Trent Grisham Fan Club and the member log is just me writing my name over and over again. I should calm down on this. You can't expect his new form to continue. “Just miss less, it will cause more damage when you touch it”, which is too simple. Maybe it's a new open position, although his swing looks similar to mine except for the starting point. Maybe that's the intention, although it's not like his swing. But whatever the mechanics are, the change is easy to see: Grisham takes up the worst part of his game, nailing the foul ball at each time he starts, keeping the bat on his shoulders and turning the bat completely.
One thing isn't it? Some weird Judge Aaron's tone choose the halo. The Yankees have a feast on fastball this year, but Grisham's weight has not changed. He saw early fastballs less frequently than any year of his career. Even if pitchers venture into the strike zone, they do the fastball more than ever. You can imagine the appearance of a judge would convince the pitcher to challenge everyone else, but there is no evidence that the pitcher is behind Grisham. Compared to previous years, he just completed the task of handling it.
You can imagine there is a halfway between Grisham's current form and the work he has done in the past few years. He obviously won't sting the ball at this speed, but when you're as picky as he's, you can keep moving forward, and Grisham can do the same. There are fewer swings in baseball than Trent Grisham, especially in the early days of the number of strokes. He has a huge power when he forces the pitcher to come to him with three balls (and 2-0), and that's how he's maintained the pace of his 20 fellow countrymen over the years. But he hadn't translated this mentality into an early swing, and he finally started doing it.
Will this heat form keep up? Probably not. Absolutely not! But if you've been Grisham Stan for years, that's what you always thought he would end up doing. Not to this extent, nor forever, but it seems easy! As long as you hit the court frequently on the hit area, the pitcher can’t get you down. OK, I have to go. These Trent Grisham fan clubs won't organize themselves – despite my better judgment, I went back.



