This is not the result. I mean, no no result. No one feels good about the 0-4 record or 5.68 ERA. But while the top line numbers are enough to worry about Spencer Strider, his delivery and changes in pitch shapes indicate a deeper focus. The 26-year-old right-hander has played just four games this season, but there is reason to ask if he will regain the form that made him one of the most dominant forces in the game two years ago.
First of all, this is very stinky. Strider is a charming young player who can easily take root. When he was at his best, his muscles threatened to chop up his uniform pants, arched his feet on the mound, blowing over 100 mph of heat, crossing anyone’s misfortune enough to find himself in the batsman’s box, he was appointed. After a cup of coffee in 2021, Strider broke into the scene in 2022, wasting it in 2022 with a 98mph fastball, an evil slider and a rumor of change. From 2022 to 2023, his 2.43 FIP is the best FIP of all starters, while his 10.3 war is only behind Kevin Gausman’s 10.7. Strider’s 3.36 ERA ranks 16th in the starter of at least 300 innings, and he’s looking for the world around the world, just like he spends the remaining decade as a true ace. We were forced to reassess the four games from almost all of the 2024 seasons that eliminated internal support surgery.
The reasons for optimism revolve around Strider’s injuries. Tommy John’s surgery cost him his sophomore season in 2019 at Clemson, and then in 2020 Covid nearly cut his junior season, but he still quickly added the brave system in 2021. Therefore, he had previously returned from major surgery. He may not have returned to this point. He got two starts in spring practice, but after the first regular season began in April, he entered Illinois State with the pressure of his right hamstring, so another rehabilitation practice and rise.
Strider returned on May 19 and has since started three games. It is important to filter through this lens all the bad news I want to transfer to you. It may only take him a while to go back to his surgery. This is entirely possible, and it is certainly what anyone who loves baseball hopes for. “It didn’t come back overnight,” Brave manager Brian Snitker told reporters Wednesday. “I hope it will. I know [Strider] It is true, but it is a difficult process. “Nevertheless, it’s hard to exaggerate the frustration of early returns.
Strider threw only 19 innings, but he looked like a completely different pitcher. At his best he embodies the prototype of the strikeout ace, where he was blown up four shots by the batsmen in the area but was also vulnerable to home runs. Strider still pitches like that guy, but he hasn’t shown the fastball that makes the approach work. He is still giving up on tough contacts – in fact, the average exit speed he allowed is the highest of any player who throws over 12 innings – but his strikeout rate dropped from nearly 37% in 2023 to more than 23% in 2025.
The bad news starts with speed. Strider’s four-aerial fastball averaged 95.2 mph per hour this season, down from 97.3 in 2023 and 98.2 in 2022. His four games this season represent the four lowest average fastball speeds of his career:
Strider’s slider has a similar decline, with an average of 83.6 miles per hour this season after an average of 85.6 in 2023.
Even in the first inning, Strider was well below his 2023 average, but the major decline since then made us a bit hopeful that he is still building up his strength and stamina. In 2023, his speed dropped after the first two innings, but it was a half-mile per hour issue. So far this season, we’re talking about about three times the size.
However, it’s not just Strider’s fastball that is slower. From 2023 to 2025, his arm angle dropped from 48 to 41:
Even considering the speed drop, the rotation rate of the court has dropped slightly. Overall, the pitch vertical break has dropped from 18.4 inches to 17.6, while its arm side running volume has increased from 6.1 inches to 8.5. Let me hit you with some percentile rankings and show you what it means. The following table shows where Strider’s four sellers ranked among all of the 100 pitchers thrown in 2023 and 2025:
Spencer Strider’s 4 Percent
| season | IVB | speed | Arm angle |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 93 | 92 | 77 |
| 2025 | 71 | 66 | 56 |
Source: Baseball Savant
The pitcher always trades vertical movement when lowering the angle of the arm to perform horizontal movement, but the vertical direction of the Strider quad-number is one of the things that make it so special and no longer has this shape. It used to show that they rarely see things in ascending, speed and arm angle. This season, it seems that all other fastballs are used to seeing, which makes it even more shocking. The pitch modeling tools are consistent in this regard:
Spencer Strider’s four
| season | PitchingBot | Things + | sTECTPRO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 67 | 118 | -1.3 |
| 2025 | 50 | 94 | 0.2 |
(Quick Review: PitchingBot works on a 20-80 scout scale, Stuff+ is based on the league average of 100, while STECTPRO is based on the league average of zero and negative numbers are zero. This is part of the reason people hate analysis.
At this point, PitchingBot is the only model that still makes Strider’s four-player combination the league average product. The results are as ugly as the model expects. From 2023 to 2025, the stadium chase rate dropped from 25.9% to 19.7%. Its popularity rate dropped by more than half, from 28.7% to 14%. And the batsmen not only hit frequently. They hit it harder. The average exit speed of the course increased from 90.1 mph to 95.3, and its barrel rate jumped from 9.3% to 14.3%:
As you can see, Strider used to pump fastballs in the middle because he knew he could be blown by people. This season, he couldn’t do that, so he was forced to fine more, trying to position it at the top of the area.
I know we’re talking about a small number of numbers. Several speeds of ticking, several degrees of arm angle, half rpm per milliliter, induced vertical fracture. But putting them all together, we are talking about a completely different tone. These things models largely take it from elite to below average, and so far, the results show the same.
Strider’s slider has changed similarly. Because he threw it from a lower angle, it added about half an inch of the glove side to break, but lost half an inch of drip (or more precisely, half an inch of rise). Add to the speed drop, according to the model of both models, it also drops below average, and QuatePro sees it as the correctness of the average. From 2023 to 2025, its pursuit rate dropped from 43.9% to 30.3%. It is still inducing more than half of the odor, but when the batsmen connect, their hard-working speed increases from 33.3% to 55.6%, and its barrel rate jumps from 7% to 11.1%. Probably because he didn’t cause a chase, Strider also placed the court on the plate more often:
We have to assume that part of the reason why the slider doesn’t work is that it no longer plays the inconspicuous fastball. I think these changes also make these two pitches more difficult in the Strider tunnel. Fastballs are increasingly breaking into the arms, and sliders are increasingly breaking toward the side of the gloves, so their paths may diverge earlier, making them easier to identify. Strider’s changes and his curveball debut in 2024 are the same score as before the injury, but the four holes and sliders are now the biggest concern.
We keep going back to big problems. Are these changes temporary, are they permanent or are they finally reaching between? How much will his speed recover as he continues to build his own speed? There is no way to trample on it, the brave didn’t know that his arm angle was low. Will he be able to return to the steep 48-degree angle he once reached, or is it a deliberate decision to leave some people behind? He is already repairing. As Lance Brozdowski pointed out on Wednesday, Strider has been transferred on the rubber. From the middle to the extreme side, he moved more than eight inches to the left.
The Braves have their own pitch modeling system and they definitely know how Strider’s bread and butter are now graded. Their choice to have him rotate shows that they think he has more to offer. If they think Strider can return to his identity before being injured, or at least his pitcher before being injured, rely on sliders and four-timers for chases and whistles while trying to avoid close contact, there is nothing else to do except let him figure it out and hope the results improve. Despite the frightening numbers, we’re still talking about just four starts and 19 innings. The mediocre fastball/slider combo is a big step, but this shouldn’t lead to the worst exit speed in the league either.
We can’t know how long it will take for Strider to recover, but the longer he looks, the more reasons he is worried. If the previous version of Strider disappeared forever, then he was a different pitcher and needed to find another way. He has changed the position of the target fastball and slider, but he will no longer be able to throw them 90% of the time. A cruel twist, The Story+ and Quatepro both viewed his curveball and his changes as his best course at the moment.
The new version of Strider will have to do everything that was great in the early versions and can’t waste time. He had to change speed and position and combine more courts. Cutting machine, sweeper, find out a modified change grip, everything that all mortals have to worry about. I’m confident that Strider can figure out if he needs it, but it’s a pity to let baseball lose what he brings. This is a cruel sport. After nearly 1,800 words, almost all the changes I just described can be summarized like this:
That’s it. That’s the difference between a world-class pitcher and a pitcher who needs re-promotion. It hurts your heart. It is designed to be heartbroken, not to mention the elbow.
