Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev Final Preview: Who will win Indian Wells? | ATP Tour

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Sinner vs Medvedev final preview: Two forces collide for Indian Wells glory

Sinner seeks first title in 2026 while Medvedev continues his comeback

March 15, 2026

Entering Saturday’s BNP Paribas Open action, Carlos Alcaraz appeared to be the favorite for the first ATP Masters 1000 event of the season. The Spaniard, already a two-time champion of the event, is in excellent form having won his first 16 games of the season.

But after Daniil Medvedev shocked world number one on Saturday, it will be a battle for the trophy between Medvedev and world number two Jannik Sinner on Sunday. Which star will leave the California desert with a crucial win?

It was a moment of opportunity for both men. Medvedev is expected to return to the top 10 in Monday’s PIF ATP rankings for the first time since July last year. But more importantly, he ranks second in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin season-to-date standings.

Becoming the first player since Novak Djokovic at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals to defeat Alkaraz and Sinner at the same event would be a clear sign that former world No. 1 Medvedev is back to his best. But he’ll face a major obstacle online: sinners.

With Alcaraz’s recent dominance, it’s easy to forget that Sinner won the last three tournaments of 2025 – Vienna, Paris and the Nitto ATP Finals – and lost just one set in 15 matches at those events.

The Italian’s disappointing five-set loss to Djokovic in the semi-finals of this year’s Australian Open illustrated the incredibly high standards he has set in recent years. But Sinner reached his first Indian Wells final without dropping a set and will be seeking his first title of the season after beating Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals.

“It means a lot to me,” said Sinner, who won five other Hard Court Masters 1000 tournaments. “My third time competing [the] Semi-finals, so I’m happy to be in the finals for the first time. now we [will] See what happens tomorrow. “

Alcaraz leads Sinner by 2,550 points in the PIF ATP live rankings. But defeating Medvedev could be the start of the Italian’s reignited pursuit of world number one.

The Lexus ATP head-to-head showdown between Sinner and Medvedev has gone on for 15 games. Medvedev won the first six games before Sinner won eight of the next nine to lead 8-7. Sunday’s showdown will be their first meeting since the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals.

Sinner won 6-3, 6-4 on the day to claim his first trophy in Turin, while Medvedev failed to advance through the round robin and missed out on the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals, breaking his six-year streak.

But Medvedev’s tennis performance is different from what it was six months ago when he dropped to world No. 18. Having won titles in Brisbane and Dubai this year before taking his game to even greater heights in Indian Wells, Medvedev has combined his typically vexing baseline game with early aggression to prevent opponents from finding their comfort zone.

“It always has to be a balance because I’ve tried at one point in my career to, let’s call it, overly aggressive, and that’s not good,” Medvedev said. “Right now, I’m confident, and when I’m confident, I always say I feel like an aggressive player, especially on serve.”

Sinner is one of the most aggressive players on the ATP Tour, having managed to take the initiative and break through Medvedev’s defense in recent years. But the 24-year-old is well aware of the dangers posed by his membership of the ATP No. 1 club.

“He’s back to a very, very high level. I thought the serve was really big. He’s coming back really good. Very, very deep,” Sinner said. “Everyone was trying to be more aggressive… Sasha was trying to be more aggressive today. I felt like he didn’t play his best tennis today, but everyone was pushing hard.

“I think Daniel has found a good balance on the court again, won the title in Dubai, came here and achieved great results again.”

With the win over Alcaraz, Medvedev moves to 8-8 in his career against the world No. 1, according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index. Crucially, the six-time Masters 1000 winner felt good about his game going into his match against five-time Masters 1000 champion Sinner.

“Maybe I played 10 games with Carlos and maybe I lost more than I won,” Medvedev said. “But every time I go out there, I need to believe in myself, I need to do my best and do whatever I can to win.”

More information about the Indian Wells final
When is the Indian Wells Championship held?
How much prize money will the Indian Wells winner receive?
Alcaraz on Medvedev’s defeat: “I’ve never seen Daniel play like this”