4 Reasons Why the Vegas Golden Knights Could Miss the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs – The Hockey Writers – Vegas Golden Knights
In a world filled with truly tame “hot topics,” here’s one that could become red-hot: The Vegas Golden Knights may miss the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. say what? The Golden Knights currently stand at 104 points (prior to game on December 11, 2025). If they keep up this pace, it’ll likely be enough to get them into the top three of the Pacific Division and into the playoffs. But the NHL isn’t so static.
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We look at four factors and basic numbers to see why the Cavaliers should be concerned. Will they be the reason they miss the playoffs? Worst case scenario, yes. But at best, these issues could still hinder this would-be contender’s potential.
Hurt bugs that never leave
Guess what? The Golden Knights once again sit atop the NHL in games missed due to injury. According to NHL Injury Visualization, the Golden Knights lead the league in total impact losses. It’s not just the number of games missed, it’s the quality of players who are missing. It’s a familiar storyline.
Center William Carlson, defenseman Jeremy Lauzon and goalie Adin Hill are three notable names on the injured list. Captain Mark Stone played only half of the game. Guard Noah Hanifin also is out with a lower-body injury, as is center Brett Howden.
If this all sounds familiar, that’s because the last time the Golden Knights missed the playoffs for the only time in their history was for the same reason. The 2021-22 season completely collapsed under the weight of non-stop injuries. Stone was in and out of the lineup, and the goaltending merry-go-round never settled.
There are already shadows of that this season. The difference is that the Cavaliers are tougher, deeper and have accumulated enough early wins to stay afloat. Despite this, injuries are still a problem that the team cannot get rid of.
The dilemma in the one-point game is getting worse
The Golden Knights are having real problems closing tight games that are killing their run in the standings. Their one-goal scoring rate is 41.2%, ranking 26th in the league. That’s a red flag, especially since there was a similar disaster last season. Whether it was late breakdowns, missed opportunities or poor execution, they let some wins slip away.
Their actual goal difference (minus expected goal difference) tells the same story. Their point differential is minus-11, tied for fourth-worst. This could be due to bad luck, or it could be due to a fundamental issue with the team failing to stop their opponents while struggling to convert scoring chances. This isn’t just a goalkeeper issue.
Further data proves this: the PDO at 5-on-5 is 0.986, which means that the team’s field goal percentage and save percentage are both below the league average.
If these numbers don’t stabilize soon, the Cavaliers may continue to leave points in the standings. With the playoffs already so close, even losing just a few games could make a difference.
The sector’s competitiveness suddenly increased
The Golden Knights’ days of dominating their division may be over. The team won the Pacific Division title in five of eight seasons, thanks in part to dominant teams like the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks. The Cavaliers have scored 77 percent or better against four conference opponents, including these California teams. Their record is 56-9-8. But these two teams are getting better and better, and suddenly winning in the Pacific is looking a lot more difficult.
The Knights have lost both games against the Ducks (0-1-1). Although their two wins over the Sharks (2-0-0) were both by one goal. The Ducks now lead the division and look to be the most improved team thanks to major offseason changes. The Sharks, on the other hand, are in contention for a playoff spot and have a record close to .500 thanks to their hot young talent.
The Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames look destined for the basement, while the Seattle Kraken are quickly back down to Earth after a seemingly promising start. The Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers continue to battle it out for one of the three division spots.
All in all, we have five or six teams competing. Of course, the Cavaliers don’t need to win the division to make the playoffs. However, the Pacific isn’t the only region seeing new competition.
New contenders hamper wild-card race
The Sharks aren’t the only hot prospects. Connor Bedard’s Chicago Blackhawks are also in the thick of the playoff race. The No. 1 overall pick was on his way to scoring 52 goals and 113 points, effectively silencing all the haters and making his team a real threat. They were followed by the Kraken, Utah Mammoths and Winnipeg Jets.
The Kraken may have calmed down, but we can’t rule them out completely. If the playoffs started now, they would have one of the Western Conference wild-card spots. What they lack in offense (last in the NHL in goals), they make up for in defense and clutch playmaking (top four in high-danger field goal percentage and high-danger save percentage).
The Mammoths have been inconsistent but have a top-10 offense and a formidable group of young stars. They may be just one hot goalie away from launching a powerful push. The Jets, meanwhile, have made a habit of proving doubters wrong. They won the President’s Trophy and exceeded regular season scoring projections for the third straight season (97.5 points projected this season, according to Hockey Reference).
And the St. Louis Blues. They have fallen behind but have proven in the past that they can keep going like everyone else. Jordan Binnington mainly shows up when things get serious. We wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to perform well as we approach the 2026 Winter Olympics in February.
The Cavaliers can’t show weakness
This is the NHL, probably the most brutal league in the world. The line between contenders and bubble teams is razor-thin. The Golden Knights are still a strong club, but things have changed. The Ducks and Sharks aren’t “freebies,” the Central Division has multiple teams vying for a wild-card spot, and the Cavaliers don’t have the health or cushion they’ve relied on in the past.
It only takes one month of poor performance, or a good opponent, and the standings can change dramatically. Here’s the danger: It’s not that the Cavaliers aren’t talented enough, it’s that they’re vulnerable in a game where the advantage is now shrinking and a lot of the guys around them are getting better.
If things get tight down the stretch, the Golden Knights could definitely find themselves the odd team out. Nothing is guaranteed in this league.
