Who are the Maple Leafs’ true forwards this season? – Hockey Writer – Toronto Maple Leafs

Every season, we try to get beneath the surface of the Toronto Maple Leafs numbers and find out who really drives this team. Analyzing a team using favorable and unfavorable goals can give us insight into what’s going on. They tell you what happened, but they don’t always tell you why it happened. When a team’s goaltending is as up and down as Toronto has been this season, things can get pretty murky.

So this time, we decided to look at it from a different angle. We looked back at five-on-five, power play and penalty kill minutes and ranked forwards using the two statistics we trust more when judging how a player truly impacts a game: expected goals and high-danger scoring chances.

RELATED: Maple Leafs Weekly: Injuries, Wall and Carlo

These are not bizarre numbers. Expected goals measure the quality of chances generated while a player is on the pitch. High dangers will be exactly what they sound like – moments that should result in a goal unless the goalkeeper steals the ball.

No statistic is perfect. But the two combined give you a sense of which players actually create game-winning looks, and which players look good on paper just because they have someone behind them saving them.

Here’s what we found.

Look how good Easton Cowan was against the Maple Leafs

It’s worth first taking a brief look at Easton Cowan’s performance in the team. He is a forward who jumps off the page no matter how you analyze the numbers. He ranks third among all Maple Leafs forwards in expected goals against (+3.10) at equal strength, a sign that he’s consistently helping to create scoring chances.

But it’s the high-danger opportunities that really set him apart. Cowan is second on the team with +16 and first in percentage with an impressive 64.8%. None of this is exaggerated by stardom or patronage use. He just puts himself in prime scoring areas and drives the game in ways that take veterans years to figure out.

RELATED: Which Maple Leafs defensemen are helping or hurting the team?

For a youngster, these are the hallmarks of a player who has not only survived in the NHL, but has shaped the game in the areas that matter most. We’ll write another article about how well he uses these metrics, but this is an area where he shines beyond his season.

Look at the expected targets: Who’s driving the Maple Leafs bus?

When we look at expected goals against at the same strength, one thing jumps out: John Tavares is doing what his numbers say he should be doing. His actual goals against rating is +6 and his expected goals against rating is +4.87. This is the image of a veteran who plays hockey honestly and is rewarded for it.

Auston Matthews, on the other hand, is a different story. His actual goal differential (+11) far exceeded his expectations (+3.49). In fact, no one should be shocked that he performed better than the model expected: He is Matthews, after all. But the underlying numbers are lower than you might think. Matthews’ scoring is at an elite level, but the chances he creates aren’t always matched by his shooting.

And then there’s Max Domi. When people look at the surface numbers and see minus 11, they think the sky is falling. But his expected number is just minus 0.85. That’s not player drowning; This player has had bad luck with his shots and save percentage. Last season, he had the exact opposite: expected minus-8, actual plus-6. For Domi, hockey seems to have a long memory and sometimes a quick recovery.

RELATED: Maple Leafs’ Easton Cowan trade rumors debunked

We’ll probably use this analysis in another article or two, but here’s a surprising teaser. There were some quiet surprises: Dakota Joshua and Stephen Lorenz’s actual goal numbers were sketchy, but once you strip out the goalkeeping noise, both looked more useful.

Overall, the expected goals story suggests Tavares is rock solid. Matthews creates more chances than he creates for himself. Domi’s luck should rebound. Cowan looks legit.

High-Danger Opportunities: The Heart of the Problem

If there’s one number we trust more than others, it’s this one. High-Danger Opportunities tell you who is creating real opportunities. These are not hopeful shots on the backboard or floaters from the blue line, but opportunities to win and lose games.

The top three at even strength are Tavares (+17), Cowan (+16) and William Nylander (+15). It’s no surprise that Tavares finished first. He’s been outstanding all season. But (as mentioned), is Cowan the No. 2 forward in terms of making high-danger looks? Not only is this impressive, but it shows a player who has mastered how to win in NHL hockey.

Here’s the kicker: Cowan leads the entire team in percentage terms. He’s not riding shotgun with stars. His playing time has not been easy. He just puts himself in places where good things happen. Matches eye test. It matches the underlying number. It shows that this young man will be more important than anyone expected.

RELATED: Revisiting Maple Leafs trade of Phil Kessel to Penguins

At the other end, the biggest surprise is Matthews again. His high danger chance is only +3. That’s tied with Sammy Blais and behind Joshua. That’s not what you expected from him. You don’t panic about it, but you do wonder if Matthews is working harder at his defensive responsibilities this season. Worth paying attention to.

Domi also received another shock here. His attitude is slightly positive (+2), which again shows that a player has done enough to hopefully get a better result in the end.

We then look at the players who were eliminated for the wrong reasons, with Nicolas Roy (minus-13) and Calle Järnkrok (minus-12) being evenly matched. When a player is at the bottom of the league in both expected goals and high-danger chances, that’s a trend, not a blip.

Maple Leafs’ special teams: Same story, different ice time

Power play (PP) and penalty kill (PK) statistics are difficult to evaluate individually because ice time has a large impact on results. The big guys dominate PP minutes, so naturally, they top the category. PK players spend their time trying to survive, so they naturally give up opportunities to their opponents.

The only one that really stands out? It’s Cowan again – with the highest expected goals rate of any forward. The truth is, special teams may require a different ranking approach right now.

What does this mean for the Maple Leafs?

When you take a step back and line up expected goals, high-danger chances and actual scoring results, the picture becomes clearer. Here’s a short list of what our analysis tells us:

First, Tavares and Nylander carry the most consistent load and provide the team with the best minutes. Second, Cowan really pushed the game in the right direction. Third, Matthews is getting results, but he’s creating fewer chances than expected. Fourth, Domi’s underlying numbers are stronger than his actual results indicate. Fifth, Roy and Järnkrok lag behind in key areas of defining sustainable impact.

These are not final decisions. Hockey will never give you a clear answer. But the numbers give a good indication of where the engine is running smoothly, where there are leaks, and where something unexpected might be brewing.

RELATED: Maple Leafs could add speed, youth by targeting Mintyukov

And in the Maple Leafs’ case, it tells us that the leadership core is doing what it’s supposed to do — and a 20-year-old rookie may have joined them.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]