Josh Naylor reunites with Seattle, signs five-year deal

Technically, the starting gun for the 2025-26 offseason has been fired. Back on Nov. 5, Leody Taveras signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Orioles, though you’d be forgiven for missing the news because it came just days after a transcendent World Series and wasn’t even worthy of coverage on this august website. So let’s consider November 16th the official first day of the offseason. On Sunday night, Jeff Passan reported that first baseman Josh Naylor and the Seattle Mariners are “finalizing” a five-year contract. Financial terms have not yet been released; in our annual top 50 free agent rankings (he’s ranked No. 11), Ben Clemens projects Naylor’s deal to be four years and worth $100 million, while the median crowdsourced forecast is four years and $80 million.

The first real move of the offseason is perhaps the most predictable. Mariners management has expressed a desire to bring Naylor back to the Pacific Northwest since the end of the season.

“It’s a great fit and it’s definitely our priority this offseason — if not, I don’t know what would be, he’s No. 1 right now,” Mariners general manager Justin Holland told MLB Network Radio on the first day free agents are allowed to sign with other teams. “I really don’t see any reason, there’s no benefit in hiding the ball, telling people ‘this is good.’ It’s not just good.” marvelous. It was perfect for two months and we wanted to make it last longer. ”

It’s pretty clear, the clear fit between the two sides, and the good feeling between player and team that has led most analysts to predict Naylor’s return. Three-quarters of MLB trade rumor writers predict Naylor will sign with Seattle, and Passan viewed Naylor as a “perfect deal” for the Mariners in a column on Monday.

It’s easy to understand the team’s desire for a stable solution at first base. The Mariners’ production at the position has been substandard before the 2024 and 2025 trade deadlines to warrant a rental purchase to cover the final two months of the season, which Naylor brought this year and Justin Turner the year before. In fact, with the exception of Ty France’s two and a half good years, Seattle went through cycle after cycle at first base for the better part of a decade. (Adam Lind! Rhion Healy! Danny Valencia! Donovan Solano! Roddy Tellez!) And don’t offer a strong internal solution; the Mariners traded their best first base prospect (Tyler Locklear) to the Diamondbacks in July’s Eugenio Suarez trade, so the team will be counting on Luke Rielly to handle the bulk of the at-bats at the position if they stay.

And who better than Naylor, who put together a magical run after arriving in Seattle from Arizona. He posted a 137 wRC+ in 54 regular-season games with the Mariners and supplemented the batting line with one of the wildest run-blocking streaks in recent memory, hauling in 19 sacks despite running in the third percentile in rushing speed. He somehow upped his game in the postseason, posting a .967 OPS and making countless clutch plays when major parts of the lineup struggled.

This is FanGraphs, but it must be said that the intangible element of Naylor’s presence at the club almost certainly played a role in the front office’s enthusiasm for a reunion. When asked on Saturday who he thought was the club’s most valuable player, Carl Rowley chose Naylor. The former Diamondback played (and cheered for the team) with intense, palpable energy and seemed to develop close personal bonds with many of the team’s core players, including Mariners club dog Tucker.

While Naylor’s relationship with Tucker is heartwarming, it may not be enough to merit what appears to be a nine-figure deal. Thankfully, the signing also makes good baseball sense. Between Rowley, Randy Arozarena and (until this season) Julio Rodriguez, the club’s offensive core features plenty of swing and turnover. Naylor’s high-contact approach provides balance to a lineup that has suffered from an overreliance on the long ball. Since starting regular playing time in 2022, Naylor’s 15.1% strikeout rate ranks among the stingiest in baseball; his 13.7% K rate in 2025 ranks in the 91st percentile. Unlike most other low-strikeout hitters, Naylor can tank every now and then. While it’s hard to see him reaching his 31-homer peak in 2024, there’s enough pop in the bat to elevate his isolation slugging to respectable levels, rounding out his offense:

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has not offered lucrative deals to free agent hitters during his more than a decade-long tenure at the helm of the team. Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24 million contract is the richest contract given to a hitter since he landed in Seattle. (Things didn’t go so well.) But one can understand why it would be easier for a guy like Naylor to get a five-year contract. He doesn’t turn 29 until next June, meaning the bulk of his contract will be fulfilled during a period when he’s relatively physically at his best. (Recent research by former FanGraphs writer Justin Choi shows that a hitter’s bat speed tends to begin a slow decline around the hitter’s age 32, more on that later.)

While Mariners fans, front office, and possibly Naylor himself are enthusiastic about the reunion, the deal is not without potential drawbacks. Generally speaking, players who get five-year contracts are closer to star players than Naylor, whose 3.1 WAR last season was a career high. Steamer projects he will have 2.4 WAR in 2026; ZIPS is a bit more optimistic, predicting 3 WAR and 0.784 OPS:

One might add that a guy with Naylor’s physique isn’t necessarily the guy you want to bet on aging most gracefully, although he does appear to have lost weight since his days in Cleveland. It’s hard to imagine Naylor having a six-win season. In all likelihood, he’s likely to be locked in as an “above average regular” player with a low likelihood of receiving MVP votes.

Another potential concern is Naylor’s loss of bat velocity. His average swing speed dropped from 72.9 mph in 2024 to 70.9 mph in 2025, the largest drop among all qualified hitters. However, as Jay Jaffe said in October, this drop may be part of an intentional “contact ability” trade-off on Naylor’s part; those slower swings helped him increase his square rate by nearly four percentage points and his batting average from .243 to .295.

Ultimately, “above average” is the price the Mariners paid and hoped for with this signing. As far as star hitters go, they have a lot of coverage: Rodriguez and Rowley are two of the best hitters in the game, while Arozarena — his weird shape aside — is third.

With Cole Young ready to step into a regular role in the majors, Colt Emerson waiting in the wings, and J.P. Crawford in the final year of his contract, it’s unlikely the Mariners will sign a center infielder. Approximately $35 million will be spent on free agents this winter, and third base is the only area in need of upgrades on offense, so there’s always the possibility that the team will spend some money on a first baseman. As long as Naylor can hold down the cold corner while finishing with a 120 wRC+ per year and acting like a benevolent lunatic over the next three years or so, the Mariners will keep their customers happy.