left handed Shota Imaga According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, he has become a free agent. The Cubs declined Imanaga’s three-year, $570,000 club option from 2026-28, and Imanaga subsequently declined his $150,000 player option for 2026.
Just a few months ago, this outcome would have seemed unthinkable. Imonaga signed a four-year, $53 paper contract with Japan in the 2023-24 offseason. The complex option structure mentioned above will take effect after the 2025 season. In his first year as an MLB pitcher last year, Imonaga’s performance in Chicago was sensational. In 29 starts, he posted a 2.91 ERA and 25.1 strikeout rate in 173 1/3 innings, which earned him an All-Star selection and a fifth-place finish in last year’s NL Cy Young Award voting.
While a strong rookie season seemed to bode well for Imonaga’s long-term tenure at the top of Chicago’s rotation, things are starting to go wrong this year. He had strong results early in the season despite poor peripherals, posting a 2.82 ERA in eight starts despite a 4.59 FIP and a plunging strikeout rate of 18.8%. His season was abruptly put on hold for nearly two months due to a hamstring injury, and when he returned, his strikeout rate continued to decline. He did manage to throw seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts in his first start after the All-Star break, but from that point on he began a downward spiral and his production began to match his lackluster outside production.
From July 25 to the end of the season, Imonaga made 12 starts, posting a 5.17 ERA and 5.42 FIP in 69 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate actually recovered a bit during this stretch, back to 23.2 percent, but he hit an eye-popping 20 home runs during that stretch. Imonaga has always had trouble with the long ball, even in his stellar 2024 season in which he allowed the 10th-most homers among eligible starters. This year, his 31 home runs rank fourth in baseball, despite hitting just 144 2/3 pitches. That’s less than anyone else in the top 20 Tyler Andersonwho hit 28 homers in 136 1/3 innings.
Despite his mediocre season, a Sept. 10 poll of MLBTR readers showed that more than 91 percent believed the Cubs should exercise his club option. From there, what seemed borderline at the time became even more apparent, as he posted an 8.04 ERA in his final three regular-season starts, then an 8.10 ERA in the postseason, before eventually being benched in a winner-take-all game against the Brewers in Game 5 of the ALDS despite resting frequently. Until then, this outcome seems more likely. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes speculated on Imamaga’s future in his Oct. 22 offseason outlook report on the Cubs, confirming that both sides declined options and Imamaga will enter free agency.
From a Cubs perspective, moving on from Imonaga is understandable for a number of reasons. By picking up his option, the Cubs will be banking on Imonaga returning to at least mid-rotation status during his age-32, -33 and -34 seasons. This doesn’t seem like a bad choice, but it’s worth noting that Wrigley Field is notoriously fickle when it comes to park factors due to wind effects. In 2024, when Wing is at his best with the Cubs, Wrigley ranks fifth in all of baseball in suppressing home runs, according to Statcast. This year, the tables have turned, with Friendly becoming the 11th most home run hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball.
Maybe Imonaga can return to form elsewhere, especially if he signs in a park with a more consistent home run suppression tendency, but given reality, it’s not hard to see why the Cubs wouldn’t want to hire him long-term. That doesn’t necessarily rule out the possibility of him returning to the Cubs. Rogers reported that it’s unclear whether Chicago intends to extend a qualifying offer to Imonaga. Recouping draft pick compensation would certainly be attractive to the Cubs if Imonaga leaves, and due to the short-term nature of the arrangement, it may be better for him to take the QO than to sign him to a three-year deal at a lower annual cost. That being said, there are plenty of mid-rotation or better starters available on the market this winter, and the Cubs may prefer not to risk Imonaga accepting an offer so they can reallocate those funds to starters they feel are a better fit for their roster.
