New York Islanders’ Matthew Schaefer is a unique player in NHL history – The Hockey Writers – New York Islanders
The New York Islanders have found themselves to be a gem. Sure, we’re in the early stages of the new season, but Matthew Schaefer, the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, is the favorite to win the Calder Trophy. If his production continues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pick up some Norris Trophy votes.
His production so far has been impressive enough, but if Schaeffer is born in a few weeks, he will be eligible for the 2026 NHL Draft. As an 18-year-old player born in September, he is unique.
Schaefer joins exclusive list
According to QuantHockey, only nine 18-year-old players born in September have scored at least five points in NHL history. Schaefer has played in seven games and is already on this list. Even better, if he can score two more points (which he may do in the next game), he’ll be the highest-scoring defenseman in this group. A month into his rookie season, he was alone.
| player, position | points per game | integral |
| Matthew Shafer, D | 1.00 | 7 |
| Brian Bellows, forward | 0.83 | 65 |
| Nathan MacKinnon, F | 0.77 | 63 |
| Mario Tremblay, forward | 0.62 | 39 |
| Jordan Staal, forward | 0.52 | 42 |
| Alexander Barkov, forward | 0.44 | twenty four |
| Patrick Marleau, forward | 0.43 | 32 |
| Chris Joseph, D | 0.33 | 8 |
| Grant Mulvey, F | 0.15 | 11 |
Of that group, only two reached the Calder Cup finals: Jordan Staal (third in 2006-07) and Nathan MacKinnon (first in 2013-14). Schaefer is expected to be third. He did more than just score, which will be discussed later in this article, but those numbers are already historic.
Is Schaeffer’s scoring style sustainable?
Since it is still early in the season, sustainability issues are particularly acute. Is Schaeffer’s scoring average too fast to sustain, or is he already a strong scorer? Let’s look at the numbers provided by Natural Stat Trick.
There are two measures of sustainability that I like to consider. The first is on-ice field goal percentage, which measures the percentage of shots a player takes while on the ice that go into the net. It’s kind of like regular field goal percentage, but with a wider range. The other is individual scoring percentage, which shows how often a player scores a goal while on the field.
Through seven games, Schaeffer is shooting 15.29 percent from all situations on the ice. If that sounds like a big number for a defender, that’s because it is. That would put him first among defensemen who played at least 500 minutes last season by a wide margin — 85.th For context, the percentile is about 12.00%.
It’s unclear where Schaeffer will end the season, but he’ll likely be above average. As the Islanders’ quarterback, and coupled with his talent, we can say that he did get an 85th place finishth The percentile for on-ice shooting clips is 12.00%.
Now, let’s talk about individual scoring percentages. Schaefer’s field goal percentage is 53.85%, ranking 11thth On the Islanders. This seems more sustainable, but is it really?
Among the same group of defensemen last season, Schaefer should have ranked 95thth percentile. So the number isn’t destined to fall, but it’s likely to. We use 85th Percentile again – individual score percentage is approximately 45.00%.
This is the critical moment. If we apply this 85th Based on percentile metrics for the remainder of the season, with everything else remaining equal, Schaefer will finish the 2025-26 season with about 56 points in 82 games.
Take this prediction with a grain of salt. The assumption here is that every shot is equal, and the Islanders will hold to 12.14 shots per game with Schafer on the court. However, if he ends up with 56 points, he will be 9 points away from tying the all-time record. If a defenseman came this close to Brian Bellows, he’d be in the Hall of Fame forwardwhich would be quite an achievement.
Beyond the numbers: Why Schaeffer’s campaign is historic
Points are fun. But what Schaefer does on the ice goes beyond those totals and is even more interesting.
RELATED: Matthew Schaeffer has proven himself to be Islanders’ defender of the future in rookie season
Bo Horvat may have led the team with nine points, but the Islanders MVP was the 18-year-old. Schaefer is an extremely talented skater and puck mover, which allows him to basically do anything he wants on the ice. He is a reliable “flow” player who helps his team get out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone with ease.
Schaefer is already a true two-way threat. Ranked second among Islanders defenders in expected goals per 60 minutes (via Natural Stat Trick) at 5-on-5 and tied for third in the league in defensive rating, with only Cale Makar and Lane Hutson scoring higher.
Schaefer only played 17 non-international games during his draft year. Injured at the World Junior Championships in December 2024 (he’s the second youngest player on Team Canada, by the way), it’s a game for balance yes in NHL games this season. But he passes the statistical and eye tests with flying colors and is expected to be the Islanders’ signature player for years to come.
