Less than a year ago, the Cardinals made the decision to move the three-time All-Star Wilson Contreras He returned to first base after the veteran said he had no intention of waiving his no-trade clause to leave ahead of St. Louis’ impending rebuild. The purpose of this decision is to open up the wide receiver position so that younger players can be more closely tied to the future of the team, such as Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pagescan get reps at the position and prove he has the ability to become a regular in the major leagues.
Getting opportunities for these young players is a smart goal, but it doesn’t come without risks. replace Paul Goldschmidt First base is a big ask for any player, and while Contreras has long been a talented hitter, he hasn’t always been able to generate enough offense to justify his role as an everyday first baseman. Contreras has only appeared in 11 games (three starts) at the position before 2025, most recently in 2019, so learning a new position will present an additional challenge for the veteran as he enters his age-33 season.
At first, the experiment looked destined to fail. Contreras was ice cold out of the gate in 2025, slashing .145/.198/.237 in his first 82 at-bats, which is unbearable for a first baseman. A month into the season, more than 65% of respondents to an MLBTR poll on Contreras’ future said he would be either a league-average hitter or worse by 2025, while only 34% believed Contreras could bounce back to his typical numbers. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras managed to defy expectations and do just that. Fast forward to the end of the season, Contreras now has a solid .257/.344/.447 record. His 124 wRC+ this year is exactly in line with his career mark of 122 and just shy of the 129 he has so far in his Cardinals career.
While Contreras’ rebound is certainly encouraging, a 124 wRC+ at first base isn’t exactly the kind of production one would hope for. Among baseball’s 25 qualified first basemen, Contreras ranks just 12th in wRC+, effectively tied with teammates Alec Burlesonwho entered arbitration for the first time this offseason. MLBTR writer Matt Swartz projects Burleson’s salary will be just $3.5MM in 2025, which is far less than the $36.5MM Contreras will make over the next two years. Considering they can get similar in-house production for less money, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Cardinals look to trade Contreras again this winter. Contreras said he would prefer to stay in St. Louis but would at least consider waiving his no-trade clause this winter.
While Contreras’ production this year may not be commensurate with his salary as a first baseman, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for optimism. In fact, there were a lot of positive signs in Contreras’ performance, which leaves the door open for him to play at a high level offensively in the years to come. Since May 1, Contreras is hitting an even stronger .268/.357/.480 with a 136 wRC+. This is the fifth-highest wRC+ among baseball first basemen during that period, trailing only Nick KurtzVladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olsonand Michael Busch.
Of course, many players look even more impressive if you ignore the worst month of the year, but Contreras’ underlying numbers reveal further reason for optimism. The veteran’s .369 xwOBA this season is more or less in line with his numbers since his offensive breakout season in 2022, and a near-perfect match to the .370 wOBA he posted in 2024. That performance resulted in a wRC+ of 141, and there’s at least reason to believe he can match that performance again in the future.
Despite one of the weakest .190 ISOs of his career, Contreras’ 13.8% open-bat percentage and 48.9% slugging percentage this year are both career highs. This year’s ISO drop and walk rate, which dropped to 7.8%, are the weakest parts of Contreras’ profile as a hitter this season, and a look at this year’s swing decisions will reveal the reason for this flaw. Contreras’ contact rate soared to 73.6% this year, the highest level since 2018. In isolation, that’s not a bad thing, but looking deeper it turns out that nearly all of the improvement has come from pitches outside the strike zone, while he’s actually pitching in the zone far less often than he has in the past. Contreras is hitting just 65.7 percent of his pitches in the strike zone this year, down nearly 4 percentage points from the previous three seasons.
Contreras has impressive potential power numbers this year, and it’s certainly possible that being more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone could allow him to get more power out of games than he has this year. However, even if that adjustment doesn’t come, one of the bright spots on Contreras’ cap is his performance with the glove at first base this year. Despite getting to know the position last winter, the veteran managed a +6 above-average outs this season. Only three first basemen (Olson, Ty Franceand Carlos Santana) broke that record this season, and it’s a no-brainer that Contreras will perform next year now that he has more experience.
Whether Contreras ends up finishing his contract with the Cardinals in St. Louis or is traded at some point over the next two seasons, it’s hard to view this contract as a success for the club. Over the first four seasons of his five-year contract with the Cardinals, Contreras slashed .261/.358/.459 (129 wRC+) with 8.2 fWAR and 8.9 bWAR in 344 games with the Cardinals despite dealing with injuries and being out of his natural position multiple times. While the ABS-challenged system coming next year and the league’s lack of catching depth may have the idea of Contreras returning behind the plate attracting some potential suitors on the trade market, Contreras has proven himself to be a quality first baseman in 2025 and should be able to provide value in that role whether he’s in St. Louis or elsewhere.
