Before his final year under team control, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal It’s getting a lot of attention as fans and clubs alike begin to turn their attention to the offseason. Detroit’s reported offer of a four-year, less than $100 extension last offseason didn’t inspire confidence that the club could lock him up long-term, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a no-no on Skubal’s future during last week’s end-of-season press conference. It’s impossible to say if Detroit will consider trading their ace this winter, but Will Salmon of The Athletic writes that the Mets are expected to participate in that market if Skubal becomes available.
This is not surprising. The Mets may have had the most disappointing season in baseball this year as they missed the playoffs Juan SotoThis is his first season in Queens after signing a $765MM contract last winter. Much of this disappointment can be attributed to a lackluster rotation, which ranked only 25th in the majors with a 5.09 ERA after July 1. In addition to injuries and underperformance from nearly every established arm in the rotation. Clay Holmes and David Peterson Leaving New York, looking for opportunities in the playoffs, and young guys like Nolan MacLean, Brandon Sprottand Don Jona It’s understandable that the Mets would seek more certainty than they can provide this winter, if there is some optimism for the future.
When pitching begins, there may be no pitcher on this side Paul Skenes Who provides more certainty than Skubal. In 387 2/3 innings over the past two seasons, he pitched to a 2.30 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate. That work has already earned him a Cy Young Award and will likely earn him a second next month. When the postseason shine was brightest and dominant, he also managed to take things up a notch, posting a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP and 37.8% strikeout rate in six postseason starts. Among 33 starting pitchers with at least 20 postseason innings over the past five years, Skubal has the highest strikeout rate, best SIERA and fifth-lowest ERA.
Skubal’s resume speaks for itself, and with starting pitching options looking relatively weak in free agency, he thinks it’s even more attractive. That being said, there’s some reason to think that even if the Tigers do get Skubal on the field, the Mets might not be at full strength. The lefty is represented by Boras & Co., with agent Scott Boras known for preferring his clients to test free agency rather than sign extensions. This seems to make it unlikely that the Mets (or any other acquiring club) will retain Skubal long-term after trading him unless they outbid the ballpark next winter.
New York certainly has the financial resources to do that, but (as Soto’s signing last winter showed) they can also do it without giving up a huge prospect package to gain team control for his final year. Salmon said the Mets are willing to consider a trade for any player other than McClain, who has a 2.06 ERA in eight starts this year and is viewed as a potential ace in his own right. Salmon speculates the Tigers could ask for a contract similar to Don and Sprott as well as a top infield prospect Jett Williams in exchange for Skubal’s services.
It should be emphasized that the package Salmon proposed is purely speculative, but it’s still worth noting that it’s very out of character for president of baseball operations David Stearns to give up so much young talent for a one-year rental. Steve Cohen appears to have the backing of ownership to prioritize the farm system, given that Steve Cohen has previously commented that the club’s current spending levels are unsustainable in the long term and wants to support massive trades for players like Soto. Francisco Lindor Featuring young homegrown talent.
The other side of the conversation is the reality that if the Mets are to improve their rotation next year, they will need to spend prospect capital or more dollars. Even so, those other paths to improvement may be better than giving up a substantial package to acquire Skubal. brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta With trades expected this winter, Salmon cited him as an example of a pitcher who could be a cheaper prospect than Skubal. The Mets haven’t been afraid to roll the dice on pitchers with question marks during free agency in the past, and the benefits of a player like this Dylan Seth, Zach Gallenor rangers suarez What is available is huge.
Even if the Mets decide to pursue Skubal, these alternative options may end up being necessary. There’s no guarantee the Tigers will let him play, and even if they did, New York wouldn’t be his only suitor. Last offseason’s failed pursuit Garrett Crochet It should be reminded that the Mets are not able to out-compete their competition on the trade market as easily as free agents; the Red Sox and Craig Breslow We’re able to offer Crochet a huge package that few teams in the sport can match, and even with the improved farm system Stearns finds himself in this winter it’s not out of the question that outbidding McClain could push him off the table.
