Logan Gilbert went two scoreless innings on the mound on Friday night in Seattle, just two days after winning Game 3 of the American League Division Series. That performance was life or death; hold the Tigers scoreless or go home for the winter. The entire Mariners team contributed to this 15-inning victory, not to mention any knock-on effects on the pitching staff. A few days later, on Monday in Toronto, Gilbert attempted to repeat his heroic short-rest effort against a relentless Blue Jays offense in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.
The Mariners can’t count on a peak start from Gilbert, so their bats will have to generate enough runs to shake off the lingering effects of the massive workload the pitching staff took on late last week. The offense scored a lot of runs and the pitchers held on despite the circumstances. The Mariners were just two wins away from reaching the World Series for the first time in franchise history when they defeated Seattle 10-3.
In a typical playoff game, hitting a three-run homer in the top of the first inning would be exhausting, but this is not an ordinary thing. Facing Toronto rookie Trey Yesavich, who had pinned the Yankees in his postseason debut eight days earlier, Randy Arozarena was hit by a pitch, Carl Rowley walked, and then Julio Rodriguez hit a shunt to give the Yankees the lead.
At the base of the first peak, however, the enormity of the mountain Seattle had to climb quickly became apparent. Gilbert came out and immediately displayed his full arsenal, throwing a sample plate of sliders and pitchers to George Springer that simply couldn’t miss a bat. Seattle’s bench looked concerned when Springer drew a 2-2 pitching foul. The consternation was at its peak when Springer dropped a pitch over the left field wall.
Gilbert may have gotten off to a slow start, but Josh Naylor tried to do the near-impossible on Nathan Lukes’ ground ball and throw it away. Alejandro Kirk then hit a double to tie the score to 3-2. When Gilbert shut the door in the first inning, he had thrown 19 pitches and had only missed one bat.
A cursory look at Gilbert’s velocity shows that he’s not feeling any ill effects from limited rest; his record is 95-96, just like he has been all year. But a closer look reveals a modern, data-driven house of horrors. There may be no change in speed on this heater, but the rotation speed is down by almost 200 rpm, which means the induced movement is about 5 inches less. In other words, the ball was flat and hittable, giving the Blue Jays an advantage. They threw 17 fastballs and gave up just two. Worse, it doesn’t fool them; They hit only 20 percent of fastballs outside the strike zone but hit 88 percent of fastballs inside the strike zone. In other words, they have no trouble figuring out where the ball is going or hitting the ball with their bat.
Normally, this would be a solvable problem for Gilbert. He has a great splitter, a great slider and a big curveball on special occasions. But his fatigue affected more than just his heater. His slider and splitter both lost as much spin as their four-seamers, and that lost spin changed their trajectory from tantalizing to awful. His slider lost breakout in both directions, and opposing batters had a contact rate of 90 percent. His distributor was supposed to be diving, but on his diminished form today, he induced six inches of positive vertical break instead of one inch of negative break, meaning the pitch dropped a lot lower than usual. He only threw one curveball, which should tell you how he felt about that curveball; it was nine inches shy of his average curveball, and that’s about it.
Put it all together, and Gilbert is pitching with the equivalent of at least one hand tied behind his back. He returned in Game 2 and struggled again, throwing 27 pitches and doing his best to finish at the dangerous top of Toronto’s rankings, including eight pitches that walked Springer and nine pitches that retired Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In the interim, Lukes hit a line-drive single to tie the game, and it felt like it was only a matter of time before the Jayhawks would break through more. The third set was Gilbert’s best yet, but even that was a struggle. He only got his second strikeout of the day, when he hooked a slider up the pipe that Daulton Varsho missed. Gilbert has only thrown 58 pitches, but he looks thoroughly cooked.
Relievers following him into games are nothing new. Eduard Bazardo had Sunday off, but he appeared in every game in the ALDS, including 2 2/3 innings and 39 pitches in the clutch. His stuff is also reduced, but luckily his sinker/slider combo performs well even with the volume turned down. He’s trying to be grounded, not petty, and this plan works much better with less stuff than “let them miss out.” The Blue Jays focused on Bazardo, blowing just one of 15 swings, but they knocked the ball down multiple times. Between the fourth and fifth quarters, Bazardo faced seven batters and allowed five ground balls. Two other at-bats ended with strikeouts and lazy fly balls. Does he need a little BABIP luck to turn it into two scoreless innings? Sure, but this plan seems a lot better than getting more from Gilbert.
The heroic efforts of Seattle’s pitchers only mattered if the bats were able to break through. Luckily, the Mariners offense is one of the best in baseball this year. You might not realize it from the statistics, but it’s not their fault that they’ve played half of their games at T-Mobile Park, which stifles offense. Their 113 wRC+ (adjusted for stadiums) trails only the Yankees this year. In the top of the fifth inning, Arozarena had a single and an error, causing the Blue Jays to intentionally walk Raleigh. The problem with this move is that much of Seattle’s lineup is home run threats. The Blue Jays brought in Louis Varland to try to suppress the game, but after deceiving Rodríguez with a sneaky fastball, he used the same trick up the middle against Jorge Polanco, who did what great hitters do with hittable fastballs. He made the toughest shot of the game, hitting the ball 400 feet away. Just like that, it was 6-3 for the Mariners, even though they were in trouble all game and desperately looking for opportunities.
Suddenly, the Blue Jays were in trouble. They had two prime opportunities to attack tired Mariners pitching staff. They played well against Gilbert, allowing three runs in three innings, but I’m sure they were disappointed not to get more; the only extra-base hit they tallied was Springer’s leadoff double, and while Gilbert was completely unable to move the ball past them, they didn’t put enough runners on base to break the game. Bazardo’s two-inning relief might not be noticeable on a normal night, but when you’re facing Seattle’s elite run defense unit and taking advantage of any breakaway opportunity, five innings of three against two tired players is impossible.
I hope you’re not disappointed to see that the recap is almost over after just five games, but uh, this game is pretty much over too. The Mariners got into the soft area of Toronto’s bullpen and got to work. Mason Fluharty allowed a run on a dangerous outing, which set up Braydon Fisher in the sixth inning against Seattle’s top lineup. After escaping the inning with several outs, he hit a two-run homer to Naylor. Yarel Rodriguez came in to clean up Fisher’s mess, but got into trouble himself by walking the first three batters he faced. After a fly ball brought the Mariners within double digits, rusher Chris Bassett came up big in the late innings.
At the end of the game, the Blue Jays didn’t even get a moral victory. Seattle brought out Carlos Vargas and Emerson Hancock from the bullpen in big innings. Those guys combined for a negative record in the regular season, and while Vargas scored in each of his first two postseason appearances, Hancock was a no-show. The Blue Jays allowed exactly zero hits in four innings against these guys; despite four batters and only two strikeouts, they finished the game without any drama.
The series continues Wednesday in Seattle. By then, the Mariners pitching staff will be at least close to being rejuvenated. George Kirby will rest at period, and then Luis Castillo will rest at period in Game 4. Brian Wu lurked in the wings and came on late in the series. This would definitely scare the Blue Jays, who struggled to score just four runs in the “easy” portion of the game against Seattle pitching in 18 innings. If this is how you look against a damaged Gilbert, a short-rested Bryce Miller and a “B” reliever, it’s a bad sign for the next few games.
On the other hand, what a brave effort Gilbert made. It was probably his worst performance on the mound in the major leagues. It looks jarring. His Splinter, in particular, looks like a shadow of his usually destructive self. Every time he ventured to throw the ball into the strike zone, it was a breathless moment; the Blue Jays made big plays and almost never came away empty-handed. But they fouled out on secondary pitches well beyond what could have been a smash, and they seemed caught in the middle when he threw a bat-seeking fastball. It feels weird to call a three-inning performance a huge victory, but that’s what happened here. Gilbert showed up and didn’t get it, but he still did enough to help his team out.
The Mariners are six games into the postseason this season, and if you just look at the stats, this is the worst starting pitcher in the group. Still, if you take the difficulty into consideration, it’s probably the best of them all. The Mariners can leave Toronto with even one win after winning the marathon ALDS. Instead, they went 2-0 in the ALCS because even though their pitching staff didn’t have the usual gear, they found a way to get the job done.
