The Las Vegas Aces are one win away. The story of their season is now clear and nearly complete, but it bears repeating: In early August, they were slaughtered 111-58 by the Minnesota Lynx, dropping their record to 14 wins and 14 ties.
Vegas won its final 16 games to enter the WNBA playoffs as the No. 2 seed, but questions remained. The Aces’ schedule is soft down the stretch, there are still weaknesses in their rotation, and 2022 Finals MVP Chelsea Gray winning feels further away. Disrespectful? Not exactly. In the first round, the Seattle Storm had a chance to win the series at the buzzer. In the second round, the Indiana Fever forced Game 5 of the deciding game into overtime.
Somehow, the last step of the journey is probably the least impressive part of it. That’s not to say it’s the least entertaining — Games 1 and 3 both came down to the wire with jaw-dropping individual performances — but it’s the easiest to digest: The Aces are simply better than the Phoenix Mercury. They beat Phoenix, they beat Phoenix and, of course, they were led by A’ja Wilson, who’s famous best player in the world The title is bland. She is pursuing something greater.
But once the Aces actually get the job done, we’ll start talking about it. Now, we can simply marvel at how they got to where they are today under the guidance of head coach Becky Harmon.
Game 1, find the area
Basketball, especially at the highest level, has become a weak link sport. Owen Phillips helped introduce this concept Basketball World This Spring: “If you want to build a successful team, you need to focus less on your strongest links and more on your weakest links.”
In playoff basketball, with more rigorous game plans, this argument rings even more true: perimeter players who can’t shoot reliably will be completely ignored, which is devastating to an offense. A brutal individual defender will be hunted mercilessly, and will be equally brutal on defense. No matter which team has a true “weak link” on the field, it’s more important than one star performing slightly better than the opponent on the other side of the floor. Any perceived flaws are ruthlessly exploited.
To that end, the Mercury-Aces final was a fascinating finale and possibly the final shot of this era in the WNBA. Back in August, I Wrote My biggest question for Phoenix is whether it can really figure out how to handle Natasha Mack, a 6-foot-3 rebounder and shot-blocking prodigy, on offense.
As the Mercury slowly approaches its deathbed, the answer is no. That’s not to say she’s a weak link player, but she’s the ultimate victim of Phoenix designing its offense around a primary ball handler who can’t shoot. Yes, Alyssa Thomas is having an MVP-caliber season. But in the Finals, Phoenix head coach Nate Tibbetts played only 42 minutes with Mack in three games. Here’s why:
They just never figured out Mike’s offense :/ pic.twitter.com/bL6YsE2kin
— Lucas Kaplan (@LucasKaplan_) October 10, 2025
Ultimately, Tibbetts felt like he couldn’t play with one of his best rebounders and defenders. (It’s no coincidence that Hammon, who is known for giving up offensive rebounds in transition, has changed his mind. Las Vegas is rebounding over 30 percent of its shots in this series, a level it hasn’t reached in the regular season since 2019.)
This resulted in Phoenix cutting Devana Bonner and Sammy Whitcomb significantly in Game 1. Vegas defenders Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd spent many minutes fighting back and then scoring. Bonner struggled defensively for Phoenix, while Vegas couldn’t contain Thomas’ two-man drive. Whether holding the ball or screening and passing, Thomas attracted two defenders and chaos ensued.
That is, the Aces were in a zone defense for much of the final 15 minutes of the game. It’s a funky matchup zone, a 2-1-2 formation, until the ball goes into the elbow area, at which point Vegas steps up. Either way, it prevents Thomas from drawing two defenders and preventing the defense from collapsing:
The Mercury scored just 15 points in the fourth quarter, blowing the lead and, in circumstances unknown at the time, a chance to close the series.
The second game, Guardian Stars
Game 2 was ultimately decided by the star player. How will the Aces defend Thomas’ Phoenix offense? How will Phoenix stop Wilson from starting? Okay, okay, this happens in almost every game. But in the second game, it was a different story.
Las Vegas didn’t need to play a lot of zone defense to slow down Phoenix’s offense; instead, it got after the fastball. Negias Duncan of Yahoo Sports tip Noting, “After initiating 18 pick-and-rolls in Game 1, the Mercury scored a whopping 1.13 points per possession on those possessions, Thomas initiated six In the second game. “
This is the foundation of Phoenix’s offense, the reverse pick-and-roll, with Thomas using a smaller shooter as the screener. After being beaten by that move on the first play, the Aces cut off the ball at the pass on the second play, and their defenders retaliated in kind. They grabbed Thomas’ hands on offense, forcing three turnovers and leading to more broken pick-and-rolls so Thomas ran just six times.
Some of it was pure execution, some of it was smart matchups. Putting 5-foot-6 Dana Evans on 6-foot-3 Kathryn Westbeld is a practical weak link theory. Westbeld is a capable 4, but has little to offer offensively. Tibbetts doesn’t have many other options, but pitting Westbeld against Mack feels like a half-measure. On the other hand, hiding Evans in Westbelt allows Harmon to throw Jewell Lloyd to Phoenix’s bigger threat. That meant a rejuvenated Loyd was often involved in pick-and-roll action, and she excelled against Thomas:
Evans deserves credit here, too. She got into some trouble against Thomas and did the same thing when she had to guard the 6-foot-4 Bonner.
This all makes it even more disappointing that Phoenix couldn’t make Las Vegas’ weak link pay. Megan Gustafson, Kyrsten Bell and Narissa Smith are all offensively challenged players who appear to be obvious points of help. However, Phoenix didn’t show enough disrespect to any of them. In Game 2, Wilson and Jackie Young connected on 43 of the Aces’ 75 field goal attempts and earned nine of 13 free kicks, although neither touched the ball in 35 minutes.
Phoenix’s main action was suppressed on one hand, but on the other hand, Wilson was rarely double-teamed. In pick-and-rolls that Young handles, Phoenix often chooses to directly guard the team’s two best players, allowing Kaalia Cooper to overcome said weaknesses by running screens with little help. Of course, the Aces should also be praised for their spacing and play design:
Like the double PnR from Vegas, the second screen came late as Kah tried to navigate. Opens a zip pocket for Jackie Young.
We wouldn’t be surprised if we see them explore this look again. pic.twitter.com/FC5nIAhs2D
— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) October 5, 2025
Game 3, Kitchen Sink
After Game 1, Tibbetts said he was “excited” the Aces had to get into zone so early in the series. If only he knew what was coming next. Taking a 2-0 lead in the series, Harmon, the mad scientist, started Game 3 with an honest one-on-one start. Young, masked Copper and the rest of the Aces guard Thomas like she’s infected with the plague:
I was “obsessed” with the Aces’ defense from the get-go. pic.twitter.com/8R1naqKytF
— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) October 9, 2025
“I just hope they have to think and do something else so I don’t have to call the first timeout,” Hammon told the media after the game.
In fact, the Aces led 21-8 before Phoenix closed the gap.
To their credit, the Mercury did find a change in this one. A lot of off-ball action between their guards and wings resulted in scoring; they either passed the ball to Bonner cutting inside or used off-ball screens to free up Cooper and Sato Sabally. Alas, they couldn’t keep up with Vegas’ offense; Young and Wilson once again accounted for more than half of the team’s field goal attempts.
In Game 3, Tibbetts put Thomas at linebacker for Vegas. Considering Gray’s stellar series – she averaged over eight assists per game and absolutely destroyed help defense…
… You can understand why Tibbetts put his best defender on Gray.
But that left Bonner, Westbeld and others trying to stop Wilson, who ended up playing a horrific 34-14-4 defense with a true shooting percentage of 67%. Bonner scored 25 points, so the problem wasn’t her playing time per se but the defensive unit not holding up. If the whole game’s “Box One” usage was Harmon throwing the kitchen sink at Phoenix, then its odd defensive matchup was the corresponding move, but once again it fell flat.
Facing Wilson, her release point was high and she was interested in the midrange, and late help didn’t help. This lesson was most evident on the final possession of the game, which became one of the defining shots of Wilson’s career:
Another angle on A’ja Wilson’s game-winner gives her 34 points and drives game @LVAces Defeat Mercury 90-88 in Game 3 of WNBA Finals @youtubetv
In the series, the Aces lead 3-0! pic.twitter.com/m8xwTbXPPg
— WNBA (@WNBA) October 9, 2025
This series was not decided by tactical adjustments. The basketball writing class tends to view coaching decisions as key to the outcome of playoff series, but the Mercury were doomed by a poor shooting series, poor decision-making moments, laziness on the glass and injuries. Sharpshooter Whitcomb injured his calf in Game 1 and hasn’t shot since. Sabally suffered various injuries and will miss his fourth game with a concussion.
However, there’s no question which team is sharper and better coached in the WNBA Finals, making it a fascinating game for the league’s prospects. The Mercury will take more 3-pointers, more shots at the rim and maybe even get more free throws in this series than the Aces. This was part of the plan for Tibbetts (who had excelled in the playoffs before this series) and perhaps why he was willing to let Wilson play one-on-one. Conversely, there’s only so much you can do when your primary ballhandler isn’t shooting jumpers.
However, these are no excuses. Facing the Aces, nearly their entire flawed roster contributed in this series. Kea Stokes earned the game-winner in the first over, her only possession of the afternoon. Gustafsson pinned Thomas to help win Game 3. Evans saw some action in Game 1, Bell saw action in Game 2, and Smith has easily earned her playing time in this series.
When we look back at the 2025 WNBA Finals, we’ll see Wilson’s true crowning moment, and he’s no GOAT, but maybe this goat. For this version of the Aces, as a whole, this is an unassailable dynasty. But now, the series technically still exists, I just see superb coaching performance and a flawed roster, which only makes it more of a worthy championship.
