Maybe the Tigers’ three runs in the ninth inning of Game 3 weren’t so inconsequential after all. Maybe they’re a harbinger of better things to come on Wednesday. Facing elimination, the Detroit baseball team completely woke up in the fourth game and finally won 9-3. That brings the American League Division Series back to Seattle for a decisive Game 5 on Friday, giving Tarik Skubal another chance to beat the Mariners for good.
Consider this: Through the first three games of the ALDS, the Mariners have hit more home runs than the Tigers have had extra-base hits. Kerry Carpenter hit a home run in the first, the team’s only long ball to date, and Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres each had a pair of doubles, but that was about it. Granted, three of those extra-base hits scored and two of them tied the game — and the Tigers made the most of their limited opportunities — but Seattle absolutely outplayed Detroit:
Tigers hitters through ALDS Game 3
| player | H | reserve bank of india | Wireless PA | waba | wxya | World Radiocommunication+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gleyber Torres | 4 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.382 | 0.372 | 147 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 2 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.299 | 0.337 | 90 |
| Colt Keith | 1 | 0 | -0.05 | 0.225 | 0.370 | 39 |
| Carey Carpenter | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.210 | 0.405 | 29 |
| Riley Green | 2 | 0 | -0.15 | 0.147 | 0.117 | -14 |
| Zach McKinstry | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.131 | 0.145 | -25 |
In fact, aside from Carpenter’s clutch home run, Torkelson’s two doubles and Torres’ four hits, the Tigers’ offense was noticeably absent throughout the series. Even after Tuesday’s mini-match in the ninth, Detroit entered Game 4 batting .165 with a .233 slugging percentage. Seattle, on the other hand, is batting just .212 through three games but has a .423 OPS. That narrative completely flipped on Wednesday. The Tigers had seven extra-base hits (three home runs and four doubles), while the Mariners could only muster one. Torkelson, Torres, Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez each had multiple hits, and Jamai Jones had a huge pinch-hit double in the decisive fifth inning.
Since their entire series was so long, the home run decided Game 4. Riley Greene was stuck for much of the ALDS; he had just two hits in the first three games of the series. He had his first extra-base hit against Seattle, a 454-foot blast that gave the Tigers a 4-3 lead in the sixth inning. After hitting 36 home runs in the regular season, his first career home run in the postseason opened the door for the Tigers. Baez, for his part, hit his first postseason home run since the 2017 NLCS, a two-run shot later in the inning. In the seventh inning, Torres continued to be on fire and launched a single on the opposite side, expanding the Tigers’ lead and chasing the score to 8-3.
The game was not so one-sided at the beginning. As they had in every game of the series, the Mariners came on first, scoring one run in each of the second, fourth and fifth innings. Midway through the game, things were looking very encouraging with the Mariners leading 3-0. They will likely look back on Wednesday and be haunted by the fact that they missed some big chances to end the game early. Seattle loaded the bases with no outs in the fourth, but ultimately pushed just one run after a double and a popup smothered the threat. The next inning, the first two batters reached base, earning the team another run, but the Mariners were unable to continue the game.
Things took a turn in the second half of that inning. Torkelson led off the inning with a single, and after a fielder’s choice, Dillon Dingler drove in the Tigers’ first run with a double. That took Bryce Miller out of the game, leaving Mariners manager Dan Wilson with trusted left-hander Gabe Speier to face Detroit’s bottom-heavy lineup. Jones, pinch-hitting for Parker Meadows, hit Dingler on the first pitch he saw down the left field line, and Báez tied the game with a single in his next at-bat. Speyer returned in the sixth inning to face Greene, but the Tigers’ left fielder uncorked a hanging slider and placed it in the right-field bleachers. From there, the floodgates opened. The Tigers scored three more runs in the sixth inning, capped off by Bayes’ home run off Edward Bazardo, and they added insurance runs in the seventh and eighth inning.
It’s a pretty worrisome transition for Seattle to go from a pretty dominant bullpen in three games. Even if you include the three runs Caleb Ferguson allowed in the ninth inning of Game 3, the Mariners’ relievers had a 3.38 ERA and 1.71 FIP in 13.1 innings during the ALDS — and if you ignore that garbage time, their ERA drops to 1.35. The Tigers also scored all of their runs in the series in the fifth inning or later, putting even more pressure on the Mariners’ relievers.
The runs allowed by Spear and Bazardo in Game 4 were their firsts in this series, and you have to wonder if that familiar feeling is starting to take its toll on Seattle’s pen. Bazardo has played in all four games, while Speyer has now gotten some high-leverage action in three of the four games, including three each against Carpenter and Green. Because Detroit’s most dangerous hitters are all left-handers, Speyer will almost certainly be called to work in Friday’s Game 5, and with Ferguson’s struggles on Tuesday – he’s the only lefty in Seattle’s bullpen – Speyer appears to be the most critical piece of Wilson and the Mariners’ pitching puzzle.
After the Tigers tied the Mariners in the fifth, they called on first-time starter Troy Melton to stop the Mariners’ bats. Melton got out of some trouble in the sixth inning, getting Randy Arozarena to fly to center after allowing two runners on with two outs. The right-hander got to the heart of the Mariners on seven pitches in the seventh inning, then erased a leadoff runner on a custom double in the eighth, also needing only seven pitches to knock the Mariners’ order down; if the team needs a fireman to quell the Mariners’ final rally on Friday, he’s going to have to make Tigers manager A.J. Hinch feel really good. Will West closed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth.
While Detroit’s starting lineup was fine in the decisive Game 5, Seattle’s starting lineup remained inconsistent. George Kirby and Luis Castillo are both available to start Friday’s game with regular rest, and both have looked pretty good in their early starts this series. Ultimately, it will come down to who Wilson trusts more to complete the Tigers’ lineup twice, and whoever doesn’t start will likely be out of the bullpen. It’s worth mentioning that of the two, Kirby is the only player to come off the bench in his major league career, finishing in Game 2 of the 2022 Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays.
Regardless of who starts for the Mariners on Friday, that’s exactly what they’re hoping to avoid. Giving Skubal two chances to impact the outcome of the series is a very dangerous proposition, even if Seattle has beaten him three times this year. The lure of fourth-place fate tips the scales in Detroit’s favor; currently, our ZiPS game-by-game odds give the Tigers a 54% chance of advancing to the ALCS (assuming Kirby starts in Seattle). This is a percentage Mariners fans are very familiar with.
