Al Central didn’t do it with you: Tigers vs. Guardians Al Wild Card Preview

Well, you’re asking for more American League Central. Or at least, I’m assuming you’re asking for more American League Central. Major League Baseball definitely thinks you want more mid-American League. Why is the league still going to have to schedule all three wild card games between the Tigers and Guardians between 1:08 PM in the East? It was prime time (assuming you were a middle school student with strep throat in his home). The only division without a 90-game title is sending two teams to the playoffs, with the Guardians and the Tigers going to spend three days in Cleveland to fight for the honors of the Mariners facing the ALDS. As far as schedule goes, that might not be enough to get the Red Sox and Yankees to cancel the Yankees, but it was a repetition of last year’s exciting ALDS showdown, which ran a full five games and ended with the most unlikely result: Tarik Skubal lost one game.

Both teams cannot enter the wildcard through more different trajectories. The Tigers quietly ended the series on Sunday and lost to the Red Sox. This loss handed over the division championship to the Guardian, who beat the Rangers with entertainment in the 10th inning:

In the All-Star Game, the Tigers have the best record in baseball, while the Guardians rank 22nd. Guardians have the best record in baseball since the All-Star Game. The Tigers ranked 21st. I can keep moving forward.

The Guardians completed the season, winning 19 of their last 23 games; the Tigers lost 13 of their last 16 shots. The two teams played 13 times this season, the Guardians participated in 8 games, and the Tigers won 5 times. Six of these games took place over the past two weeks, with the Guardian winning five games. Putting it all together, Cleveland became the first team ever to fall behind the division (or league) leader in September with at least 11 games before winning again. The Tigers boasted with a 15 1/2 lead to second place in the division:

The Guardian has now won the second straight title and the third in four years. The Tigers have not won the division since 2014, and this is only the third time in that time, they will finish up to second place. However, they may not be too scared. Although they don’t have a home court advantage, a lot of numbers suggest they are a better team. They have better differences and Pythagoras’s record compared to their guardians. As Jay Jaffe reminds us every fall, success in September does not guarantee success in October. The Tigers also have more than 30 guardians, and as Dan Szymborski tells us, teams relying on home runs tend to be slightly better in the playoffs.

Then there is the good news from Detroit: Skubal will catch the ball in the first game tomorrow. He will win his second consecutive Cy Young. He scored 2.33 in his 12 regular season careers against the Guardian, and despite the losses, he scored 3.46 points against them last year on the ALDS. He scored 0.64 ERA in Cleveland in four games in 2025. The Tigers started Chris Paddack on Sunday to make sure Skubal is ready to go tomorrow. Although he left him due to his tight left side, he left on September 12, and he never missed the turn and seemed completely healthy.

The Tigers won’t adopt a pitch chaos strategy this season. According to most metrics, their bullpen is in the middle of the midway ranking, but its 4.33 FIP is 23rd in baseball. The start pitching in Detroit may require delivery, so let’s look at possible matches. On the other side, the Guardians threw for Logan Allen on Sunday, looking likely to launch a starting rotation for Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi. In a strange twist, the series’ 1 and 2 will be a repeat showdown on September 23 and 24. As for the previous week on September 23 and 24. Cecconi is the only starter who may not face another team in the past week. For every game, I emphasize better times and better XFIP:

All the yellow on the bottom row will surely make you look like you have to give the Tigers an edge in the division.

I know, it seems like we are talking every year about how guardians get into the playoffs due to pitching and defense rather than hitting, but that has never been the case. WRC+ is only 87, and Guardians ranks 28th in baseball. This is their worst mark since 1991. If you score at home, that was 30 years ago. The Reds are the only other playoff team to rank 13th in WRC+. José Ramírez has 133 WRC+. Kyle Manzardo is 113 years old. No other Guardian hasn’t even held a league average batting line this season, even if you just look at the second half of the season. If you only look at September, when the Guardian turned on the Afterburning Man, rookies CJ Kayfus (145), Bo Naylor (136) and Steven Kwan (100) jumped to the roster among at least 50 cricket matches. Still, as Sam Miller wrote a few days ago: “In any case, any strike is a huge mistake for José Ramírez.” If the tiger could include Ramírez – to be sure! – They must be satisfied with their opportunities.

The Tigers may not necessarily turn off the lights. Their 103 WRC+ ranked 11th in baseball throughout the season. In the All-Star Game, the mark was 108, even during the disastrous September, their shooting percentage was 87, exactly the same as the Guardians throughout the season. As a result, no one will be very hot. Jahmai Jones, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Zach McKinstry, Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, Dillon Dingler and Colt Keith – Here are eight players! – All WRC+s are at least 109 this season, but only Jones and McKinstery reached that score in September. They will have to face the Cleveland bullpen, losing an Emmanuel Clase in July despite losing a 3.49 FIP but leading the league and earning in the top five of ERA, XERA and WAR.

In some ways, the entire series will be a momentum referendum. The guardians are on fire, and they have overwhelmed the tiger lately. Their pitching and defense are better, and even their offenses are getting better. But the Tigers have the best pitchers in the AL, and it’s hard to say they’re not a better team throughout the season. Do you believe Jack Flaherty’s FIP is almost half better than Tanner Bibee’s game, or do you believe Bibee beat the Tigers twice in September while setting a 3-0 record, 1.30 ERA and 2.38 FIP? Do you just listen to the annoying voice in your mind that tells you that this is three games and that almost anything can happen? Cleveland and Detroit will get three games once and for all, and they will finish their dinner in time even if you live on the East Coast.