While most teams were very roughly not finalizing their position in the playoff pecking order until the last day of the season – yelling at the Padres and Cubs to figure things out in advance – the original ZIPS game-by-play playoff box office is now on the scene. None of these predictions are set on the stone; things change as we approach game time and have a better understanding of roster configuration and launching pitcher plans.
Just to remind everyone that the ZIPS playoff model is different from the normal predictions seen on the website in regular seasons. From April to September, Zips need to see the forest of trees, but in the short sprint we can focus more on the individual trees themselves. We can do about who starts every game, how the lineup looks, who is healthy, who doesn’t do that, and so on. The ZIPS Game Showdown Tool has a built-in lineup estimator that will cast the line of each pitcher and hitter for each opposing batsman and pitcher, so there is no need to look at the team’s extensive offensive power. The playoffs also bring the benefits of being able to run a full, more powerful zipper model rather than the simple ones used in the regular season, which is necessary due to the fact that it takes more than a day to cast the entire league.
Is the model perfect? Of course not. All models are wrong, but some are useful. The approach I took would benefit in some very specific situations where the team’s seasonal record was not a good predictor of performance. In 2019, for example, Zips believed that the Nationals were a more dangerous opponent for the Dodgers than traditional ideas, as Washington was able to focus the team on a large portion of the team’s ability among several excellent pitchers.
If the beginning of a particular game has not been officially confirmed, the pitchers listed are my most educated guesses. After the wildcard round is concluded, the predictions for the department series will be made after the championship series, and so on. Currently, you will see these labels turn gray. In addition to game predictions, you will also find series odds, which will be updated as each series progresses.
Since Fangraphs offers several different projection tools, here is a quick summary of the features of the three models: Fangraphs Game Odds, Fangraphs Playoff Odds, and ZIPS Game-by-Game Odds – Most relevant to preseason:
Fangraphs Post-season Projection Tool Comparison
| feature | FG game odds | FG playoff odds | Zipper Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project game results | Yes | No | Yes |
| Project playoff series results | No | Yes | Yes |
| The future playoff round of the project | No | Yes | No |
| Lineup/lineup | Game lineup | Overall forecast Playing time |
Projected game lineup |
| Take the starter | Yes | No | Yes |
| Basic projection system | Steamer/zipper | Steamer/zipper | Zipper only |
| renew | Before/during the game | Shortly after the game | Before/shortly after the match |
Now comes the actual games, which are played on the field and are more fun to watch than predicting! Remember, as always, when predictions eventually look bad, this is actually due to the flaws inherent in this particular iteration of the multiverse!
