Odds changes in the Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup when Balkov was injured and reshape this season – Hockey Writer –

The Stanley Cup game has just changed. With Aleksander Barkov likely to be in position this season, the Florida Panthers face a huge gap in the middle. His absence reshapes the championship landscape, opening the door to competitors like Vegas Golden Knights, who should be the favorites to win everything now (according to the new odds, they made the top three).

We will break down Balkov’s damage not only to the Panthers and the Golden Knights, but also to the Stanley Cup other hopes.

Losing Balkov cuts Panthers’ chances of “three consecutive championships”

It is hard to exaggerate the value of Balkov to Florida. He is a three-time Selker Trophy champion and as the league’s highest two-way forward, he will prevent defense from being integrated with frontline defense. During his career in Balkov, he averaged almost one point per game while always ranking among the NHL leaders and won the takeaway victory. Last season, he posted 56.7% with a 5-to-5 expected goal share (XGF%) based on natural statistics usage. His elite numbers highlight his ability to tilt the ice.

Related: Balkov injury may attract black panthers to engage in large-scale trade with penguins

Without him, the Black Panther’s structure would weaken at both ends. His share of on-ice scoring opportunities was 7% higher than when he left, highlighting how he pushed for possession and limited opponents’ opportunities. Losing this ability to exist effectively forces Florida to reassign minutes to players who are not suitable for handling top-tier games, thus exposing their defensive spine.

The suggestive probability of bookmakers reflects this downturn. The Panthers’ Cup chances are now at around 7.7%, down sharply from 11-12% before injury. It was a dramatic shift for a team that just came out and changed the playoff prospects of competitors, one of which is worth noting to eliminate their last team in the playoffs.

Is the Golden Knights team going to defeat now?

The Golden Knight is uniquely positioned in this conversation. They are not an Eastern team that benefits directly from Florida’s weakened convention path, but they are also one of the few contenders to improve competition during the offseason. They acquired superstar forward Mitch Marner while still owning a roster designed for playoff hockey: in all four lines, a ruthless and structured pre-check depth is the depth of the battle test.

The Golden Cavaliers’ offseason makes them one of the most progressive NHL teams in the NHL. They have completed 2024-25 in one of the league’s most harsh defenses (only 214 goals, third place), while their base numbers (XGF% and high-crisis stocks) are on the upper level, suggesting that the defensive structure reliably limits opponents’ chances. The formula won the 2023 Stanley Cup and remains their biggest asset.

Balkov’s absence pushed the Golden Knight forward, even a little bit. Because they live in the West, the direct benefits are smaller. The gloves in the East suddenly look less intimidating, meaning that Las Vegas may eventually face more confident opponents in the Cup final. The Golden Knight’s suggestion probability climbed from 9.5% after 9.5% of people were injured to 10.5%. This makes them the most likely Stanley Cup champion in the West.

Eastern competitors benefit the most

But at present, Oriental has the biggest winner. The Carolina hurricanes’ hidden cup probability has climbed to 12.5%, reflecting both the overview they have carefully occupied and a clearer path. Crutches led the NHL last season with a CORSI (Natural Statistics Skill) to control the game at an unparalleled level for any other contender. Without Black Panthers’ closing center control roads (and speculation about the acquisition of Kirill Kaprizov), their hockey machines would have become even harder to stop.

The next team to benefit is Panthers’ national rival Tampa Bay Lightning. Now, with about 11.1% wins, they look re-invigorated, too. With Andrei Vasilevskiy’s health and its core integrity, the Lightning could thrive in the playoff chaos. Balkov’s absence eliminates a strong obstacle and has the potential to open another deep door.

Toronto maple leaves hover around 4.8%, benefiting from the difference. Their offensive firepower, led by Auston Matthews and William Nylander, faces a small elite defensive hub to suffocate them. Again, the Edmonton Oilers didn’t see much in terms of odds action. One would think that the Stanley Cup runner-up will get the biggest gains in the past two seasons. Alas, the Oilers lost many key contributors during the offseason, which was theoretically worse.

It’s no surprise that these three Eastern contenders have seen their odds change as they are also the team that Panthers beat the Stanley Cup final last season.

All in all, the Cup has become even more unpredictable. Vegas must be in sync with the Western Challenger while watching the Eastern Recalibration recalibrate in real time. If Barkov is lost in the year, the balance of power is enough to inject new drama into the 2026 playoff photos, with the Golden Knights still being the core player, but hardly alone.