I intend to write down the Cincinnati Reds by admitting that it was logical to admit it a month ago. Then I remembered something: I actually did write down red. From Fangraphs Dot Com, August 29: “Unless the Reds do something crazy, the NL playoff game is over.”
Well, the celebrity did something crazy. Usually, I try to solve my predictions. I’m not saying something that will definitely happen or won’t happen, but I’ll use frameworks like “This is extremely unlikely to happen; if and when will it happen.” Well, from August 29 to September 22, Cincinnati switched from low-unit playoff odds to a flip of virtual coins:
Tuesday night was very unkind to Cincinnati. The Mets, the Rattlers and the Marlins (who still somehow didn’t technically attract the dead) all won dramatic victories while the Reds fell into the doubles, ending their last three innings of offense and defeating Pittsburgh 4-2. Still, these playoff odds were 43.5%, and the Reds were still hunting even after their worst luck. Of course, what’s more important than I expected is the month. How did they do it?
Well, since August 29, the Reds have hit .237/.307/.413, which is 95 for wrc+, tied for 18th in the Grand Slam. They ranked 20th in the pitcher war, 15th in the ERA, and K-BB% ranked 8th. Therefore, their overall average.
Maybe the red guy just snatched at the right moment and performed well on the high leverage spots. Cleveland, another big Ohio promoter, has absolutely shed tears in that moment over the past month. Since August 29, Guardian’s batsman hit .449 when he appeared on high leverage boards and had as much walking as strikeouts. All in all, that’s 245 WRC+.
Cincinnati’s high leverage WRC+ in the wild? The enviable 68, ranked 24th in the Grand Slam. (Last night was 83 before the Gidp carnival.) The Reds pitcher ranked 16th in the Grand Slam with a .288 opponent in the game with a high leverage board appearance. This may not tell the whole story; since August 29, Reds pitchers are the fourth-largest FIP at high rates with high rates and the third-best walking rate, which is the downright speed of 3.4%. But they didn’t suddenly turn into the 1971 Orioles spin above the 2015 Royals’ bullpen.
The Red Army’s solo performances since August 29
At least 10 pitcher IPs, 50 PAs for position participants
There is no outstanding personal performance here either. A few guys had a nice month. Spencer Steer hit the cover of the ball and Matt McLain showed signs of life. If it is sustainable, it is huge. Back in 2023, many smart people said McLean was the best young infielder in Cincinnati, not Elly de La Cruz. But Labrum tore apart McLain in 2024, which has been one of the 10 worst full-time batsmen in baseball since returning to the lineup this year. In fact, McLean is currently being eliminated by Anthony Volpe, who is running out of New York by rail.
So yes, don’t worry too much about the 3-inch strikeout rate and sparkling in McLain’s productivity.
The high USAGE pitchers in Cincinnati are very good overall – very good with Hunter Greene and Emilio Pagán, and I don’t want to make it less impactful to participate in the color-blazing competition without critical joint stimulation. I mentioned the high rate of FIP since August 29; the Dodgers died in the league, with a FIP of 7.27 under these conditions. Thank you, Black Traileen and Tanner Scott.
The celebrity has no such weakness, and it is obvious that they have benefited. But I’m trying to find a raging player on the ball over the past month so that I can fix all the honors on him. Such a person does not seem to exist.
During the 26-day span, 253 pitchers made at least 10 innings. They were ranked in the war and there were no red pitchers in the top 25. They are ranked by WPA, and Greene is the name on the list. 18. During the same period, 260 participants registered 50 or more plates appeared. Juan Soto leads the league with 1.9, followed by Justice Aaron, Cal Raleigh and Shohei Ohtani. How original. Some combination of these guys seems to lead everything in the league.
The highest war among the Red Army? Steer, ranked 0.6 on the list, ranked 60th. Steer is ranked 33rd in the WPA league and is the only Reds player in the top 60.
I think this is where I give up my head: The celebrity is only 12-11 between the first post and this post. They are 30-30 since the All-Star break and 23-24 since the trade deadline.
Ironically, Soto has been in the kind of tears I expected to find from anyone. Because the real reason why the Reds formed so many foundations is that the Mets ranked 8-14th in the same leap major league, the fifth-worst record in the major league.
However, this could earn some praise as they won the series against wildcard opponents two weeks ago. In fact, the Reds have played 8-2 against other NL playoff contenders (Meses, Padres and Cubs) since August 29, against everyone else. The red did not climb to the top of the pile. They dragged everyone else to them.
I ended up quoting the allegory I liked. It’s actually a joke. You may have heard of it.
Two men were chased through the woods by a bear. One of them stopped, and in a mid-suit, and replaced it with his running shoes.
“You’re fool!” said his friend. “You will never surpass the bear, it doesn’t matter what shoes you wear!”
The first man replied, “I don’t have to surpass the bear. I just need to surpass you.”
I love bear fables and running shoes because it contains important life lessons. If you know that other people have taken three, you may be able to pull two donuts out of the box from the two donuts in the box in the lounge. You don’t want to be the most drunk person at a wedding, but it might be OK to be a second-front person.
Even if you play averages in stretching, you can go back to the tournament if the team ahead is completely hump. Have the Reds been excellent in every way in the past month? Not really. But that’s good. They don’t have to surpass the bears.
