These 10 players will win (or lose) the Ryder Cup

A lot of ink overflows who can, should, should or will make the biggest contribution to the Ryder Cup team, as the captain proposed a wildcard draft pick last week. If you are a golf fan – I bet you are intoxicated with all the books, sent a letter to your good friend, and even gave a passionate speech on the water cooler why Keegan Bradley should (or shouldn’t) consider himself as the captain of the game.

But, on the final player production roster, all the hidden facts are that they don’t contribute the truth of those contributions like those who are automatically qualified. You have to go back to Minnesota’s 2016 Ryder Cup to find the last captain’s draft pick who played five games – Thomas Pieters was conveniently paired with Rory McIlroy, three of which ended up losing in Europe.

The last captain’s draft pick in the 2008 Cup was five previous games between Hunter Mahan and Ian Poulter. There are 61 cups of the Captain’s draft picks in the last eight cups – with only three options in each meeting. Only 26 attended four or more conferences, about 43%.

Statistical possible points out- Well, there are usually more automatic series than the captain’s picks, so you will naturally want more of these games to compete in a series.

Just in the moment, about 68% of Ryder Cuppers automatically qualified during that time, with 77% of players participating in four or more games being auto-quality. In other words: Not all Ryder Gapers are equal and are in the skills and How to throw this skill into the fire. Simpler: Captain rides a horse. Those horses will surely cause or break you.

Don’t believe it?

The 2023 Ryder Cup revealed this theory. Thanks to Datagolf, the data archives the strokes obtained by each player in the Rome game, so it is easy to see how European horses dominate when American horses wither. This is not a huge sample size – there is some noticeable noise in the player’s personal performance, especially when they are caused by 9 and 7, such as Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka did, but the results are obvious.

Let’s start with Scheffler, who was the best golfer in the world at the start of the 23 Cups. He played four games that year – in the afternoon meeting after those 9 and 7 defeats – his performance against expectations was much worse than Europe’s best player Rory McIlroy. Considering how bad one His game went, and he was better than the charts suggested, but it was still not a good cup game for him in the end. In the four-player combination we can’t move away, he was crushed when the American needed points the most.

The same can be said for the third best player in the United States, Xander Schauffele, against the third best player in Europe. The same goes for the fifth-place player in the United States, Collin Morikawa, against Europe’s fifth-placed Tyrrell Hatton. You can see more in the image above, which aligns the players of each team with the opponent’s most comparable opponents. Essentially, both teams since 2023 have been equipped with five players, and their teammates are taller than teammates. After that pile, the expected skill curve dropped in a serious way – you can see a more confusing performance at the bottom of each roster. In other words, randomness takes over.

But at the top? Horses in Europe perform much better than those in the United States in terms of expectations. Are some of these due to home court advantage? Maybe. Are some due to luck? certainly. What we remember about the Ryder Cup is not necessarily them value On a spreadsheet. But there is one a lot of The orange color on the plot, especially on the left, is exactly the one who matches the most. All 10 of these high-end players have played at least four games, which is exactly what we expect from high-end players again later this month. The better your horse, the better your team will be. Sometimes it’s simple, especially when four players on each team compete in each non-single match.

With that in mind, and a few other considerations, we trim a group of players who will eventually decide things at Bethpage Black in a few weeks. Once again, we rely on DataGolf’s expected skill ratings (including many of the numbers the team will use), and we highlighted a set of 10 that will almost certainly rely more on than others.

Americans (5): Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay

Schefler Be the best player in the world and needs to be smashed by the stands to not compete in five games. dechambeaau – With all his energy and driving abilities – should play at least four games, and if he strips, he should play five games. Henry On all relevant metrics, paired with Scheffler in team competitions, and for most of last year it has been one of the five best golfers in the world. Schauffele Given his availability a few weeks before the event, it was a slight wildcard. He’s performing worse in 2025 than in recent years, but his floors are still high. So high, he needs a share of the competition. (In a world where Schauffele performed poorly Justin Thomas Given all his experience, it’s likely to be a complement to four or five games. Finally, there is CantlayHe has been struggling everywhere for the past two years, but he has recently opened it up and has surfaced frequently in 2025.

That’s your American horse. Others can certainly join the four-game group, but none of them may not be.

Europeans (5*): Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy one Or two Matthew Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland and Bob MacIntyre.

Ram Yes, outside of Scheffler, the most consistent golfer we’ve seen in the last five to six years. He should be mainly five-game locks, prohibited forms or endurance. Fleetwood Play the best golf in his life and have the same positive RC experience as anyone. McIlroy This summer’s game is worse than what he played in the 23 Cup, but his floor is still high like Schauffele. Very quiet, Ludvig Aberg Has returned to form – better than he did during the 23 Cup. DataGolf said he was the last European with extremely high expectations skills before dropping. Given his youth, his success and his all-around game, you’ll be shocked to see him less than four games. Finally, because Luke Donald is bound to incorporate everyone into the lawsuit with at least three games, five to six players may have only room for four games. So it will boil down to one or two Fitzpatrick of Hofland or McIntyre. With form as the main indicator, we will choose Fitzpatrickhe quietly entered the top ten in the DataGolf rankings.

That’s your European horse. The only question left is the most obvious: Can they be more difficult than their American counterparts?