The Red Sox began working on their 2026 bullpen over the holiday weekend, signing Aroldis Chapman to extend his contract signing, keeping him in Boston for at least one season. Chapman’s one-year deal, $13.3 million in salary for the following season, $12 million in salary for signing bonuses, and a $300,000 acquisition without exercising a $13 million co-option. This option is guaranteed if he throws 40 innings in 2026 and passes a physical examination after the season.
After seemingly declining for at least a few years and standing out from baseball’s top close-up conversations and sometimes losing the role at close-ups altogether – Chapman dominated his first season with the Red Sox. He had 1.00 ERA and 1.78 innings in ERA, 77 strikeouts and 14 walks in 54 innings. No, you didn’t misread the last part: Chapman released only 14 free passes in 54 innings this season, the lowest 7.1% and 2.33 bb/9 speeds in his career. Chapman will walk three to four batsmen every 9 innings even on his absolutes, which is a reasonable trade-off for the rest of his skills. However, as he ages, controls have decreased, from 2021 to 2024, he left 15% of the batsmen. So, it was an impressive feat for him to suddenly host the best season of his career at the age of 37.
ESPN’s Buster Olney talks about how Chapman’s approach changed in the spring, but the basic explanation we’ve seen is that he’s no longer throwing the fastball in the middle. Instead, Chapman is actually trying to discover his heater now, with the help of Pitchcom, at the suggestion of Boston catcher Connor Wong. While this is an anecdote type that sometimes sounds like folklore, the data does suggest Chapman yes Suddenly, his fastball is more capable than in the past. According to Stuff+, Chapman’s position +179 fastball is the fifth largest number ever (Min. 40 innings), while he has run 94 innings over the past four seasons. His sinking film was once a debris in his tracks and has become the focus of the slider. This is not to induce the sinking of the ground ball, but to become a pitch, a high speed drop, on the right, on the left-handed. Statcast history has only one player on his settling plates better than Chapman’s 38.9% this season: Josh Hard (40.7%) in 2019 and 2021 (40.5%).
Chapman also simplified his approach. He has struggled with early numbers in recent years compared to sliders, but this year, he threw fastballs or sinkers from the first game about 85% of the time. This led to a 71.1% strike percentage of the season, 10 percentage points higher than his previous 2017 high of 61.9%.
Chapman loves playing with the Red Sox, and despite his elite season, that seems to be true, his annual postponement will only experience a small bump in annual salary, and signing is only guaranteed for one year. Even at his age, I doubt he would do better in free agents. If it were three or four decades ago, Chapman would be a serious contestant, but with the number of relief outings, winning the award became even more difficult. Last year, Emmanuel Clase became the first reliefist to rank among the top three in the Cy Young vote since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008. Eric Gagne is the latest rescuer to win CY Young in 2003. This is one of the reasons why BBWAA recently voted to win a new award next season.
Zips Projection – Aroldis Chapman
| Year | w | l | era | g | GS | IP | h | Um | human Resources | BB | so | ERA+ | war |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 2 | 2.96 | 55 | 0 | 48.7 | 35 | 16 | 4 | twenty one | 73 | 145 | 1.0 |
| 2027 | 4 | 3 | 3.42 | 55 | 0 | 47.3 | 37 | 18 | 5 | twenty two | 68 | 126 | 0.7 |
Zips thinks there is no particular reason to worry about Chapman. Even if the walking rate is not expected to remain so low and any pitcher who maintains a 0.175 BABIP in the Grand Slam, Chapman will still be an excellent close-up in 2026, far better than 2021-2024. There are some downside risks here, Chapman is close to 40, and the relief volatility – Zips gives him a 23% chance to release a 4.50 or worse era – but the Red Sox takes up that possibility in this deal. Zips also noted that Chapman had a 70% chance of becoming the ninth player in Major League Baseball history 400 times.
Boston has been in and out of many players in recent years, but the 2026 team already looks a lot like the current roster, and Chapman is now signed with Justin Wilson and Rob Refsnyder, the only two players to start the season with the Red Sox, who plan to get free agents this winter this winter. Their bullpen this season is third in baseball in Times, fifth in FIP and second in War. With this signature, the Red Sox has now secured the rewards of the pitchers most responsible for achieving this.
