Ceddanne Rafaela can jump | Fangraphs Baseball

Ceddanne Rafaela can jump. He can tie up the high outfield walls to rob home runs. He can move forward to make sure he will otherwise get out of the ball at his fingertips. He could bounce up like a cat, turning after reaching out and grabbing. But none of these jumps are what I mean. What I'm talking about is:

In the GIF you just watched, Rafaela drove over 100 feet in less than five seconds to reach Rob Bo Bichette at the extra base. This is an amazing harvest. It would be a tough enough game for the Golden Glove winner in the right field, not to mention Rafaela coming from the center. That ball hit an average of .820, and how far is his magic when he realizes that all he can do is to back down and get his teammates to work on. You don't need Statcast to tell you that this is a five-star catch, and it stands out even in the nine five-star catches we've seen this year. These are only three, with a 5% chance of capturing.

Rafaela slid into the wild wall, the fact that he raised his gloves in a victory way, happened on the first court of the game, which made it the highlight of endless re-watches. What really makes this trap so spectacular, however, is that he can even consider the huge ground that must be covered before reaching out the ball. It's not that he hit the mustard sign in the right area, but that he's approaching the sign from the beginning. In other words, it all has to do with his jump.

Baseball Savant defines “outfielder jump” as a foot count above or below average, where the outfielder travels in the right direction for the first three seconds after releasing the field, with a 90% or more capture probability (two stars or more) during the game. This is a valuable indicator because the skills it measures are nearly impossible to judge by ophthalmic testing alone. Most of us watch most baseball on TV, and this medium usually prevents us from seeing outfielders standing at every field at the moment. Unless you are watching a dazzling frame replay (as mentioned above), it is rare to see the initial reaction of the fielder to the ball. Therefore, outfielder jump is one of my favorite Statcast tools. If Rafaela is a regular baseball game, I think this is one of his favorites:

So far, in 2025, Rafaela is the league leader for outfielders jumping, and not particularly close. At 6.2 feet above average, his jump was longer than the median height of a major league player. Think of it this way: If both Rafaela and the league average outfield jumpers were running from the same starting point, it would only take Rafaela three seconds to get so much status that Mike Trout could lie comfortably between two outfielders. More importantly, Rafaela's average jump puts him ahead of the next best jumper, Johan Rojas. More than half of qualified outfielders land within 1.4 feet of league average in both directions. Rafaela's jump was at least 1.4 feet higher. Everyone else. The warning of small sample sizes that we apply in almost every post in April certainly applies, but if we can marvel at what Randy Rodríguez does, we can also marvel at the achievements of Rafaela. Sustainable or not, no one can bring a great outfield jump. You can move quickly or not. Rafaela can.

Having said that, Raphaela's speed is actually a mystery. One reason I find his jump numbers so fascinating is that despite his quickness, I never considered him a top-notch racer. His 28.3-foot/SEC sprint speed ranks in the 84th percentile of the season. In 201 professional competitions, he compiled only 1.8 strokes (BSR). In his age of prospects, the assessors disagree whether his speed is truly elite (70 fv) or closer to Plus (60 fv). At Fangraphs, Eric Longenhagen gave Rafaela a 60th grade in 2023, then raised it to 70 a year later. As those different levels suggest, the measurement speed is nuanced than one might think.

Rafaela dates back to his debut season in 2023, ranking 72nd among qualified runners (minimum 10 competitions), putting him in the 84th percentile. He ranked 23rd in comparison to his midfielder, only bringing him down to the top half of the qualifiers in that position. However, his average time from home to first base is 95th percentage point Rod man. This is a clear difference, especially for right-handed batsmen. Most players in the No. 1 rankings who rank much better than their sprint speed are left-handed, and their batsman box is closer to first base. Only four right-handed outfielders have been home as fast as Raphael in the past three seasons: Brandon Rockridge, Deron Blanco, Byron Buxton and Miles Strau.

According to Sprint Speed, Rafaela is at least half a foot slower than these four. He lags further in the “bolt”, which defines it as any run above 30 feet per second. Lockridge and Blanco are more than half of their fierce competition. Buxton and Straw have been around 20% of their competitive matches. Meanwhile, Rafaela has only had two times in her career. That's less than 1% of his competition. Since 2023, only one baseball Savant ranking player has higher sprint speeds and lower bolt speeds: Cubs rookie Matt Shaw, who has played in just 18 professional games.

Therefore, Rafaela's top speed isn't the same as someone we think of as an elite runner, but he still covers the ground faster than most other players – on base and on the field. The ability to react quickly and maintain speed for a few seconds, two things measured by outfielder jumps, can help explain why. We can say for sure that it has nothing to do with running a valid route. Outfielder jumps can be divided into three components: “reaction” (the first 1.5 seconds after the foot is released, covering any direction in any direction), “explosion” (the next 1.5 seconds is covered in any direction) and “route” (the first three seconds the foot covers the most direct route to the ball). Rafaela leads each of the first two components. However, his route makes him the top 10 qualified outfielders. This is obviously not a problem. In fact, as Davy Andrews discovered a few years ago, high route scores are negatively correlated with the OAA. Generally, running as quickly as possible is more efficient than running in the exact right direction. Rafaela is proof of pudding.

For this, if Rafaela has any speed issues also Quickly. He was about an inch or two past during this link game last season and he needed to be him when the ball reached into the gloves. It bounced off his wrist and inertia carried him into the wall. This is an example of another game this year, which knocked him into the fence. He didn't give himself time to slow down, and the ball he could have played turned into an embarrassing mistake:

Now is a part of what you've been scary: I have no choice but to tell you that Raphaela's early jump numbers are unsustainable. In 2024, he is one of the best jumpers in the profession, just like he does now. He ranks fourth among qualified stamina. He jumped average last year? 3.3 feet above average. This only accounts for more than half of his current high jump score. The outfield jump dates back to 2016, and during that time, no player (minimum 10 chances) had already ended a season with the outfield jumping six feet high. Outfielder jumps over five feet over five games without qualified outfielders (more than five-star chances than five games):

With the due respect for Raphaela, it is hard to believe that he will continue to be so much Better than any other major league outfielder since the last 10 seasons. That said, his average jump could drop more than a foot, and he still has a chance to get the best outfield jump numbers we've ever seen from qualified players. Evaluators have only had the highest praise for Rafaela's midfield defense since he became the highest prospect during the 2022 campaign. Baseball America’s team took particular attention to his jump, when he ranked in the top 100 publications in 2023: “Raphael’s big jump made him one of the best defensive midfielders on a professional team.”

Rafaela met these high expectations in a brief coffee of that year. His average jump in 2023 is 6.9 feet higher than the average 6.9 feet. This is compelling evidence that we're seeing more than just a blessing in the seven other opportunities this year. As for his down score in 2024, he has a good excuse. Rafaela only started playing in the outfield in 2021, and 2022 is his first year of more than half of the midfield. Although he played in the major league level in 2023, he still spent most of that season. However, in 2024, Rafaela played more in the shortstop than anywhere else, while also seeing time at second and third bases.

Alex Cora admits that the Red Sox demands for Rafaela prevented him from reaching his full defensive potential. “We know his simplicity. We know his greatness in midfield,” the captain told reporters. “But walk around, it's away from good jumps and engagement.” Given the background, it seems Cora is talking about Raphaela's instinct in shortstop rather than the center. Still, the key is that playing multiple positions can cause huge losses to the players. Now, Rafaela has played exclusively in the midfield for the first time in her career, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can get a better jump than ever before.

In 20 games this season, Rafaela has compiled 4 DRSs, 3 OAAs and 3 FRVs. It was a pleasure to watch him in the outfield. Unfortunately, he can't say that on the plate. His discipline is better – his walks have risen and strikeouts have fallen – but he put too many balls into the ground. Over 74 plates on the trip, he hit only one double, one triple and one home run. Level 40 Xwoba shows that he might be more productive, but it's hard to get ahead of his 67 WRC+. The Red Sox’s past will become more difficult when the Red Sox has a better choice. If /when Masataka Yoshida returns to the show from IL and/or Roman Anthony, Rafaela's gloves may not be enough to win his normal playing time if his bats don't show up. So be sure to appreciate his incredible jumps when possible, hoping he will start hitting enough people so we can enjoy his defense for a longer time.