How likely do you think the Reds are to enter the playoffs? I’m not asking you to guess what our playoffs think about them. I will tell you in the next paragraph. I want you to put your phone number on it based on your knowledge and consider the red and playoff pictures. They are 59-54 and have 49 games. They were three games with Padres, who won the final wildcard title, and were four games behind second place. Is there a number in your mind? Then, we prepared another paragraph.
Thank you for the game. At the time of writing, our playoff odds give the Reds a 12.4% chance of making the playoffs. I think at least some people are a little bright. Baseball Reference has brought the Reds a 36.3% chance to make the playoffs. They were in four games with the Metropolis and Padres. They also played five games with the Phillies, the No. 1 team in the NL East. If the Reds continue to play like they are playing, and any of these teams are in a late-stage trap. They just added on the deadline. Hunter Greene looks to be back soon, and Elly de La Cruz certainly looks like the kind of player who can put a team around him for a few weeks and carry it to the finish line.
Again, I’m sure this number feels high for some people. You can understand why numbers don’t like red. Baseball reference offers them a great opportunity as it ignores the roster components and the red lineup is weaker than the team ahead. They rank 22nd in the position player war and are not as good as Phillies, Mets or Padres on the deadline. In fact, according to Zips, they actually become 3.2% Fewer With doubts about Ke’Bryan Hayes, it may be due to the addition of more to other teams, it’s likely to make it to the playoffs. Their schedule for baseball is fifth so far, and from now on, their baseball time is the toughest. They outperformed Xwoba’s six points, the second highest gap in baseball. Our predictions not only left the Reds out of the playoffs, but they ended the game 82-80, surpassing .500 in one of the above games this season and trailing the Padres in the standings.
This article does not mean a referendum on the Red Army. So far, I’ve been focusing on them because they are the only team in the National League with a playoff odds between 10% and 85%. Let me say it another way. With a 12.4% chance to make the playoffs, they are somehow the closest team in the National League, reaching 50%. This is what it looks like in a table (especially the thinnest table you see on Fangraphs). The following is the entire NBA, omitting all teams’ odds over 97% or below 3% as they appear to be more or less certain. Here is a picture of the entire playoffs.
NL Odds
| team | % |
|---|---|
| metropolis | 91.9% |
| Priest | 87.8% |
| red | 12.4% |
| giant | 6.6% |
| Cardinal | 5.7% |
This won’t leave many teams behind, and even these five groups are divided into two very obvious categories. It was one of two battles, with the second-place team having an advantage of about 75 percentage points in the third-place club. We lined up Metropolis and Padres to get the last two wildcard points, and then we had everyone else. The Giants and Cardinals are only for sale on the deadline. Even if they don’t give themselves a chance. The Reds and the Padres are the only teams between 90% and 10%. If the Reds enter the playoffs, it would be a big surprise, at least according to seeing the robots in the future.
In the American League, the situation is more fair, but still stratified. The Red Sox currently leads the Yankees 2 1/2 games in the wild card rankings, but Boston is not ranked first in the playoff odds (78.8%), behind only New York (85.1%) and Seattle (80.0%) (80.0%). These predictions see Rangers as the team that has just emerged. The decline between the Red Sox and Rangers was 40.6 percentage points, from 78.8% to 38.2%. Boston has more than twice the odds!
This is not normal. On this date last year, the playoff odds for six different teams ranged from 40% to 60%. The two teams met this standard on this date in 2023 and three teams in 2022. This year, this is the fourth season of this new extended wildcard format, which is zero. Our playoff odds date back to 2014, and even in the old wildcard format, we never reached this point in the calendar, without 40% to 60% of the team. In fact, there are at least two teams in each season except in 2019. This is the least competitive playoff in recent memory. In theory, this new playoff format should make it easier to get more teams in the playoffs. The entry standard does not exceed .500, and many teams usually hang out around .500. Maybe this year is an outlier, or maybe that’s what we should expect, the league is divided into super teams and super tankers, buyers and sellers. If you sell on the deadline, you can tell your fans that are building in the future. If you just missed the playoffs, you failed and you may not be able to get all the credits you deserve.
Before I leave you, I should obviously remind that these are just predictions. They are good, but they are not perfect. Many unpredictable things will happen. The ranger looks capable of running. The Reds have a one-in-one chance to make the playoffs, and something even more impossible happens all the time. The Tigers had a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs this date last year, and you can still buy a t-shirt that commemorates what happened next. Even if nothing changes, there will still be battles. The Mets and the Phillies can knock it out until the final game of the season. Al East has three teams with real shooting percentage. Winemakers and cubs can be approached in the center of the NL, while Astros and Sailors can do the same thing in the Al West. Some of these races will influence who will see you again and who will not see you again. It would be exciting. However, none of this means that predictions do not provide us with meaningful information. It’s been at least 11 years since we see very little suspense at this point in the calendar.
